La escuela de los momios

Casa Pia v Braga

Inicio: 2026-04-23 18:00 UTC

Final: Casa Pia 0–1 Braga

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Casa Pia (Local)

Predicción 16.56%6.04momio equitativo
EV +1.00%
Ventaja +0.164%
Kelly +0.197%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.33%16.63%16.56%18.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.905.645.706.1020.41%17.73%17.54%16.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Braga (Visitante)

Predicción 59.06%1.69momio equitativo
EV -3.73%
Ventaja -2.29%
Kelly -5.92%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.63

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.37%58.94%59.08%60.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.501.571.571.6366.67%63.53%63.69%61.35%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.38%4.10momio equitativo
EV -1.74%
Ventaja -0.432%
Kelly -0.575%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.03

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.03%24.42%24.36%26.20%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.803.804.0330.30%26.34%26.32%24.81%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV +1.00%E +0.164%K +0.197%G +0.002%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 17:50
ATG (SE)6.10I 16.39%NM 15.40%EV +1.00%E +0.164%K +0.197%G +0.002%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.21%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.40%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-23 17:50
Coolbet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -5.50%E -3.44%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 17:54
Casumo6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 17:49
Grosvenor6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 17:49
betPARX6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 17:50
Bally Bet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.05%EV -7.87%E -5.04%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -6.13%E -1.59%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 17:49
TABtouch6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -8.46%E -5.46%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 17:50
BetRivers6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.02%EV -8.46%E -5.46%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 17:49
Unibet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -9.05%E -5.87%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:49
Unibet (NL)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -9.05%E -5.87%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:49
Unibet (SE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.17%EV -9.05%E -5.87%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:49
LiveScore Bet6.00I 16.67%NM 15.33%EV -0.653%E -0.109%K -0.131%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.13%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-23 17:49
FanDuel5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -2.31%E -0.391%K -0.471%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.93%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 17:49
1xBet5.89I 16.98%NM 16.46%EV -2.47%E -0.420%K -0.506%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.48%EV -3.73%E -2.29%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.06%EV -1.74%E -0.432%K -0.575%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-23 17:54
Pinnacle5.87I 17.04%NM 16.44%EV -2.81%E -0.478%K -0.576%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 59.56%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 24.00%EV -1.99%E -0.494%K -0.657%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-23 17:55
LowVig.ag5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -3.96%E -0.683%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.46%EV -6.09%E -3.83%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 17:20
BetOnline.ag5.80I 17.24%NM 16.30%EV -3.96%E -0.683%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.46%EV -6.09%E -3.83%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 17:24
Virgin Bet5.80I 17.24%NM 15.67%EV -3.96%E -0.683%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 59.78%EV -10.23%E -6.73%K -19.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 17:50
LeoVegas5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV -3.96%E -0.683%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.10%EV -11.41%E -7.61%K -22.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-23 17:50
DraftKings5.75I 17.39%NM 16.54%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.07%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.39%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 17:44
Everygame5.75I 17.39%NM 16.32%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.65%EV -5.50%E -3.44%K -9.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:19
Unibet (UK)5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.15%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 17:49
Betr (AU)5.75I 17.39%NM 16.25%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.15%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 17:50
Bet Right5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 17:50
PointsBet (AU)5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -4.79%E -0.833%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.30%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-23 17:50
Tipico (DE)5.70I 17.54%NM 16.39%EV -5.62%E -0.986%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -8.46%E -5.46%K -15.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -2.47%E -0.618%K -0.824%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 17:25
Unibet (FR)5.70I 17.54%NM 16.37%EV -5.62%E -0.986%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.07%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 17:39
Bovada5.60I 17.86%NM 16.78%EV -7.28%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.11%EV -6.09%E -3.83%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.10%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-23 17:44
Betclic (FR)5.60I 17.86%NM 16.70%EV -7.28%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.19%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.10%EV -5.40%E -1.39%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 17:39
Marathon Bet5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -7.28%E -1.30%K -1.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 59.05%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -6.37%E -1.66%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 17:25
GTbets5.56I 17.99%NM 16.97%EV -7.94%E -1.43%K -1.74%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.59%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.44%EV -5.89%E -1.52%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 16:20
Coral5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.26%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:19
Ladbrokes (UK)5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.26%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 17:19
Sky Bet5.50I 18.18%NM 17.01%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.60%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -2.47%E -0.618%K -0.824%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 17:50
BetMGM5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 17:20
SportsBet5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-23 17:30
PlayUp5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 58.53%EV -6.68%E -4.23%K -11.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 17:25
Betway5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 17:54
Paddy Power5.50I 18.18%NM 16.81%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.87%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 17:24
BetUS5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -2.47%E -0.618%K -0.824%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:50
betfred_uk5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:50
BoyleSports5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 17:19
Bet Victor5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -8.93%E -1.62%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.09%EV -7.28%E -4.63%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 17:49
Neds5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.74%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 17:20
Ladbrokes (AU)5.40I 18.52%NM 17.32%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.74%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.94%EV -8.57%E -2.28%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 17:20
Betsson5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 17:25
NordicBet5.40I 18.52%NM 17.26%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.54%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 17:25
NetBet (FR)5.40I 18.52%NM 16.81%EV -10.59%E -1.96%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.88%EV -7.35%E -1.93%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-23 17:55
Winamax (DE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.51%EV -13.90%E -2.67%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.14%EV -9.05%E -5.87%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -4.91%E -1.26%K -1.69%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 17:40
William Hill5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.37%EV -4.32%E -2.67%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-23 16:34
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 16:35
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 16:34
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 56.52%EV -4.91%E -3.05%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -12.23%E -3.40%K -4.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-23 16:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 17.29%EV -17.21%E -3.44%K -4.30%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 56.51%EV -9.64%E -6.30%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -19.54%E -5.92%K -8.50%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-23 17:50
Winamax (FR)4.90I 20.41%NM 17.89%EV -18.87%E -3.85%K -4.84%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.43%EV -11.41%E -7.61%K -22.82%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.69%EV -9.79%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-23 17:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook6.40I 15.63%NM 15.56%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.73%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.71%0.4%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.20I 16.13%NM 16.04%1.65I 60.61%NM 60.28%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%0.5%2026-04-23 17:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.00I 16.67%NM 16.49%1.65I 60.61%NM 59.96%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.55%1.1%2026-04-23 17:55
Smarkets6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%1.64I 60.98%NM 60.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%1.5%2026-04-23 17:45
Kalshi6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%1.61I 62.11%NM 60.84%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49%2.1%2026-04-23 17:30