Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Casa Pia v Benfica

Kickoff: 2026-08-17 19:15 UTC

Final: Casa Pia 0–7 Benfica

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Casa Pia (Local)

Prediction 6.26%15.97fair odd
EV +15.32%
Edge +0.832%
Kelly +0.879%
Growth +0.135%

assuming max odds 18.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.21%6.31%6.24%7.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.5014.1514.0018.428.00%7.07%7.14%5.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Benfica (Visit)

Prediction 80.53%1.24fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -16.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.60%80.28%80.55%82.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.171.171.2090.09%85.69%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 13.21%7.57fair odd
EV +5.78%
Edge +0.721%
Kelly +0.824%
Growth +0.048%

assuming max odds 8.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.97%13.41%13.21%16.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.786.958.0117.54%14.76%14.39%12.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Casa Pia (Local): 6.26%; Benfica (Visit): 80.53%; Draw: 13.21%. For Casa Pia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.97. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯18.42I 5.43%NM 5.21%EV +15.32%E +0.832%K +0.879%G +0.135%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.80%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%8.01I 12.48%NM 11.99%EV +5.78%E +0.721%K +0.824%G +0.048%4.1%2026-08-17 19:05
Tipico (DE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +6.43%E +0.378%K +0.402%G +0.026%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-17 19:00
Coolbet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.96%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.87%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.16%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-17 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.09%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -10.86%E -1.61%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-17 18:59
Marathon Bet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.68%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.47%EV -8.22%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-17 19:09
Betsson🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.93%EV -4.16%E -3.50%K -21.92%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -24.73%E -4.34%K -5.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
NordicBet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.93%EV -4.16%E -3.50%K -21.92%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -24.73%E -4.34%K -5.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
Unibet (FR)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.76%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.27%EV -9.80%E -8.75%K -81.68%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.97%EV +1.68%E +0.218%K +0.251%G +0.004%8.5%2026-08-17 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-17 19:09
DraftKings🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-17 18:54
Betway🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-17 19:10
BoyleSports🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-17 19:05
BetUS🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.43%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.32%EV +0.361%E +0.047%K +0.055%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-17 19:09
PlayUp🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -4.16%E -3.50%K -21.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-17 19:09
SportsBet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.95%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-17 18:59
Bet Right🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-17 18:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-17 19:00
Paddy Power🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-17 18:44
betano_uk🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-17 18:59
Bet Victor🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-17 19:10
Betclic (FR)🎯14.75I 6.78%NM 6.18%EV -7.66%E -0.519%K -0.557%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.62%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.20%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.20%EV -8.88%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-17 19:09
GTbets🎯14.60I 6.85%NM 6.48%EV -8.60%E -0.589%K -0.632%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.22%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.30%EV -5.98%E -0.840%K -0.977%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-17 19:09
BetOnline.ag🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.47%EV -9.22%E -0.636%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.67%EV -2.28%E -0.308%K -0.356%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-17 19:09
NetBet (FR)🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.20%EV -9.22%E -0.636%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.96%EV -10.61%E -9.56%K -96.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-17 18:59
Fanatics🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 18:54
Casumo🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Grosvenor🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Svenska Spel🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
ATG (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Bally Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
betPARX🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Bovada🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-17 19:10
Sky Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-17 18:44
FanDuel🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.23%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-17 18:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.51%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-17 19:04
BetMGM🎯13.50I 7.41%NM 6.99%EV -15.48%E -1.15%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.99%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.02%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 19:09
Coral🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 19:09
LowVig.ag🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.70%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.06%EV -4.92%E -0.683%K -0.794%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-17 19:09
888sport🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
William Hill🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
888sport (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
betfred_uk🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-17 18:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.68%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-17 19:04
Neds🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.68%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-17 19:04
Winamax (DE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.36%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 79.96%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.68%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-17 18:59
Winamax (FR)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.36%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 79.96%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.68%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-17 18:59
TABtouch🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
PMU (FR)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
BetRivers🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Unibet (NL)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Unibet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Virgin Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.22%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.75%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-17 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.22%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.75%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-17 18:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.22%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.75%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-17 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)20.00I 5.00%NM 4.97%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.90%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13%0.5%2026-08-17 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)20.00I 5.00%NM 4.97%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.90%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13%0.5%2026-08-17 19:10
Matchbook18.50I 5.41%NM 5.38%1.21I 82.64%NM 82.19%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%0.6%2026-08-17 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)18.50I 5.41%NM 5.34%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.31%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.35%1.2%2026-08-17 19:10
Smarkets17.99I 5.56%NM 5.48%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.19%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.33%1.4%2026-08-17 19:10
Kalshi16.67I 6.00%NM 5.88%1.19I 84.03%NM 82.36%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%2.0%2026-08-17 19:05