Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Casa Pia v Benfica

Início: 2026-08-17 19:15 UTC

Final: Casa Pia 0–7 Benfica

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Casa Pia (Local)

Previsão 6.26%15.97odd justa
EV +15.32%
Vantagem +0.832%
Kelly +0.879%
Crescimento +0.135%

pressupondo odds máximas de 18.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
5.21%6.31%6.24%7.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
12.5014.1514.0018.428.00%7.07%7.14%5.43%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Benfica (Visitante)

Previsão 80.53%1.24odd justa
EV -3.36%
Vantagem -2.80%
Kelly -16.79%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.20

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
77.60%80.28%80.55%82.80%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.111.171.171.2090.09%85.69%85.47%83.33%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 13.21%7.57odd justa
EV +5.78%
Vantagem +0.721%
Kelly +0.824%
Crescimento +0.048%

pressupondo odds máximas de 8.01

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
11.97%13.41%13.21%16.27%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
5.706.786.958.0117.54%14.76%14.39%12.48%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Casa Pia (Local): 6.26%; Benfica (Visitante): 80.53%; Empate: 13.21%. Para Casa Pia (Local), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 15.97. 9 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 18.42, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +15.32%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯18.42I 5.43%NM 5.21%EV +15.32%E +0.832%K +0.879%G +0.135%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.80%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%8.01I 12.48%NM 11.99%EV +5.78%E +0.721%K +0.824%G +0.048%4.1%2026-08-17 19:05
Tipico (DE)🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV +6.43%E +0.378%K +0.402%G +0.026%1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-17 19:00
Coolbet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.96%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.87%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.16%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-17 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.09%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -10.86%E -1.61%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 18:59
Unibet (UK)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-17 18:59
Marathon Bet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.68%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.47%EV -8.22%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-17 19:09
Betsson🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.93%EV -4.16%E -3.50%K -21.92%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -24.73%E -4.34%K -5.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
NordicBet🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.80%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 77.93%EV -4.16%E -3.50%K -21.92%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.27%EV -24.73%E -4.34%K -5.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
Unibet (FR)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.76%EV +0.167%E +0.010%K +0.011%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.27%EV -9.80%E -8.75%K -81.68%G +0.000%7.70I 12.99%NM 11.97%EV +1.68%E +0.218%K +0.251%G +0.004%8.5%2026-08-17 19:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-17 19:09
DraftKings🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.32%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.64%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-17 18:54
Betway🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-17 19:10
BoyleSports🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.26%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.31%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-17 19:05
BetUS🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.43%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.32%EV +0.361%E +0.047%K +0.055%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-17 19:09
PlayUp🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 78.27%EV -4.16%E -3.50%K -21.92%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.52%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-17 19:09
SportsBet🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.21%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.95%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.84%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-17 18:59
Bet Right🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-17 18:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.20%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.49%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.31%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-17 19:00
Paddy Power🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-17 18:44
betano_uk🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.09%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.86%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-17 18:59
Bet Victor🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -6.09%E -0.406%K -0.435%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-17 19:10
Betclic (FR)🎯14.75I 6.78%NM 6.18%EV -7.66%E -0.519%K -0.557%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.62%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.20%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.20%EV -8.88%E -1.29%K -1.51%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-17 19:09
GTbets🎯14.60I 6.85%NM 6.48%EV -8.60%E -0.589%K -0.632%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.22%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.12I 14.04%NM 13.30%EV -5.98%E -0.840%K -0.977%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-17 19:09
BetOnline.ag🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.47%EV -9.22%E -0.636%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.67%EV -2.28%E -0.308%K -0.356%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-17 19:09
NetBet (FR)🎯14.50I 6.90%NM 6.20%EV -9.22%E -0.636%K -0.683%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 80.96%EV -10.61%E -9.56%K -96.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-17 18:59
Fanatics🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 18:54
Casumo🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Grosvenor🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Svenska Spel🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
ATG (SE)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Bally Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
betPARX🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.54%EV -3.36%E -2.80%K -16.79%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.73%EV -15.49%E -2.42%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Bovada🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.95%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.36%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-17 19:10
Sky Bet🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.60%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.07%EV -8.19%E -7.19%K -58.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.32%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-17 18:44
FanDuel🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.59%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.23%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.18%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-17 18:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯14.00I 7.14%NM 6.50%EV -12.35%E -0.882%K -0.950%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 80.51%EV -9.00%E -7.96%K -69.20%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.00%EV -7.56%E -1.08%K -1.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-17 19:04
BetMGM🎯13.50I 7.41%NM 6.99%EV -15.48%E -1.15%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.99%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.02%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-17 19:09
Coral🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV -0.960%E -0.128%K -0.148%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-17 19:09
LowVig.ag🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.70%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.06%EV -4.92%E -0.683%K -0.794%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-17 19:09
888sport🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
William Hill🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
888sport (SE)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.60%EV -4.97%E -4.21%K -27.61%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-17 19:09
betfred_uk🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.09%EV -18.61%E -1.43%K -1.55%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 78.74%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -14.16%E -2.18%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-17 18:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.68%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-17 19:04
Neds🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.46%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.68%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.86%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-17 19:04
Winamax (DE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.36%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 79.96%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.68%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-17 18:59
Winamax (FR)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.36%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 79.96%EV -7.39%E -6.42%K -49.24%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.68%EV -4.26%E -0.588%K -0.682%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-17 18:59
TABtouch🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
PMU (FR)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
BetRivers🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Unibet (NL)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Unibet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.26%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 77.60%EV -5.78%E -4.94%K -33.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.13%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-17 18:44
Virgin Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.22%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.75%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-17 18:44
LiveScore Bet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.22%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.75%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-17 18:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.22%EV -21.74%E -1.74%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 77.75%EV -6.58%E -5.67%K -41.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -20.77%E -3.46%K -4.15%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-17 18:44
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎20.00I 5.00%NM 4.97%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.90%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13%0.5%2026-08-17 19:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎20.00I 5.00%NM 4.97%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.90%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.13%0.5%2026-08-17 19:10
Matchbook◎18.50I 5.41%NM 5.38%1.21I 82.64%NM 82.19%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.43%0.6%2026-08-17 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎18.50I 5.41%NM 5.34%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.31%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.35%1.2%2026-08-17 19:10
Smarkets◎17.99I 5.56%NM 5.48%1.20I 83.33%NM 82.19%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.33%1.4%2026-08-17 19:10
Kalshi◎16.67I 6.00%NM 5.88%1.19I 84.03%NM 82.36%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.77%2.0%2026-08-17 19:05