La escuela de los momios

Benfica v Moreirense FC

Inicio: 2026-04-25 17:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Benfica (Local)

Predicción 83.03%1.20momio equitativo
EV -4.52%
Ventaja -3.93%
Kelly -30.13%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
80.05%82.99%82.99%86.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.091.131.131.1591.74%88.88%88.50%86.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Moreirense FC (Visitante)

Predicción 5.41%18.49momio equitativo
EV +29.80%
Ventaja +1.24%
Kelly +1.30%
Crecimiento +0.386%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 24.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
4.04%5.47%5.47%6.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
14.0016.9017.0024.007.14%5.92%5.88%4.17%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 11.57%8.65momio equitativo
EV +20.28%
Ventaja +1.95%
Kelly +2.16%
Crecimiento +0.438%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 10.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.33%11.53%11.54%13.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.507.927.8810.4015.38%12.63%12.70%9.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet1.12I 89.29%NM 86.63%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 4.04%EV +29.80%E +1.24%K +1.30%G +0.386%10.40I 9.62%NM 9.33%EV +20.28%E +1.95%K +2.16%G +0.438%3.1%2026-04-23 16:00
Tipico (DE)1.09I 91.74%NM 85.74%EV -9.50%E -8.72%K -105.57%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV +2.76%E +0.145%K +0.153%G +0.004%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.35%EV +15.65%E +1.57%K +1.74%G +0.272%7.0%2026-04-23 19:29
Pinnacle1.13I 88.50%NM 83.95%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%17.37I 5.76%NM 5.46%EV -6.06%E -0.349%K -0.370%G +0.000%8.96I 11.16%NM 10.59%EV +3.63%E +0.405%K +0.456%G +0.017%5.4%2026-04-23 23:15
Bovada1.12I 89.29%NM 83.76%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.52%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.72%EV +1.20%E +0.137%K +0.154%G +0.002%6.6%2026-04-23 15:53
BetUS1.12I 89.29%NM 83.76%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.52%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.72%EV +1.20%E +0.137%K +0.154%G +0.002%6.6%2026-04-23 15:54
Coral1.15I 86.96%NM 82.51%EV -4.52%E -3.93%K -30.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV -18.87%E -1.26%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -1.69%E -0.199%K -0.226%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 15:49
Ladbrokes (UK)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.51%EV -4.52%E -3.93%K -30.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV -18.87%E -1.26%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.16%EV -1.69%E -0.199%K -0.226%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-23 15:49
888sport1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -1.69%E -0.199%K -0.226%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 12:24
888sport (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -1.69%E -0.199%K -0.226%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 12:30
Mr Green (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -1.69%E -0.199%K -0.226%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 12:29
William Hill1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -1.69%E -0.199%K -0.226%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-22 12:25
DraftKings1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -1.69%E -0.199%K -0.226%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 15:49
Marathon Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 84.10%EV -7.84%E -7.06%K -71.28%G +0.000%19.50I 5.13%NM 4.79%EV +5.46%E +0.280%K +0.295%G +0.016%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.11%EV -2.85%E -0.339%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-23 15:54
Unibet (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 83.99%EV -7.84%E -7.06%K -71.28%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.91%EV +2.76%E +0.145%K +0.153%G +0.004%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.10%EV -2.85%E -0.339%K -0.385%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 17:05
Coolbet1.15I 86.96%NM 83.11%EV -4.52%E -3.93%K -30.13%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -2.65%E -0.147%K -0.156%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.58%EV -4.59%E -0.556%K -0.632%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-23 15:50
BetMGM1.15I 86.96%NM 82.23%EV -4.52%E -3.93%K -30.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.30%EV -18.87%E -1.26%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.46%EV -4.59%E -0.556%K -0.632%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-23 15:49
Betclic (FR)1.12I 89.29%NM 83.59%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.06%EV +0.056%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.35%EV -4.59%E -0.556%K -0.632%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-23 17:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.14I 87.72%NM 81.99%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -24.28%E -1.73%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.33%EV -4.59%E -0.556%K -0.632%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 15:50
Neds1.14I 87.72%NM 81.99%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.68%EV -24.28%E -1.73%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.33%EV -4.59%E -0.556%K -0.632%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 15:49
LowVig.ag1.11I 90.09%NM 82.33%EV -7.84%E -7.06%K -71.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -24.28%E -1.73%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.14%EV -5.16%E -0.630%K -0.717%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 21:10
BetOnline.ag1.11I 90.09%NM 82.33%EV -7.84%E -7.06%K -71.28%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.53%EV -24.28%E -1.73%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.14%EV -5.16%E -0.630%K -0.717%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 21:14
BoyleSports1.14I 87.72%NM 82.67%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.54%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -7.48%E -0.935%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 15:54
Fanatics1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -2.65%E -0.147%K -0.156%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -7.48%E -0.935%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 15:50
Paddy Power1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -2.65%E -0.147%K -0.156%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -7.48%E -0.935%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 17:05
FanDuel1.12I 89.29%NM 82.93%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -7.48%E -0.935%K -1.07%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 17:03
Everygame1.10I 90.91%NM 82.59%EV -8.67%E -7.88%K -86.71%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.06%EV -18.87%E -1.26%K -1.35%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -7.48%E -0.935%K -1.07%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-23 12:45
NetBet (FR)1.09I 91.74%NM 83.03%EV -9.50%E -8.72%K -105.57%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV -13.47%E -0.842%K -0.898%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -7.48%E -0.935%K -1.07%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-23 14:28
Winamax (DE)1.10I 90.91%NM 82.23%EV -8.67%E -7.88%K -86.71%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -24.28%E -1.73%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -7.48%E -0.935%K -1.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-23 15:49
Winamax (FR)1.10I 90.91%NM 82.23%EV -8.67%E -7.88%K -86.71%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -24.28%E -1.73%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -7.48%E -0.935%K -1.07%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-23 15:49
Betr (AU)1.14I 87.72%NM 82.08%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.85%EV -13.47%E -0.842%K -0.898%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.07%EV -10.37%E -1.34%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-23 19:30
Svenska Spel1.15I 86.96%NM 82.15%EV -4.52%E -3.93%K -30.13%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -2.65%E -0.147%K -0.156%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 00:25
ATG (SE)1.15I 86.96%NM 82.15%EV -4.52%E -3.93%K -30.13%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.25%EV -2.65%E -0.147%K -0.156%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 82.51%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.95%EV +2.76%E +0.145%K +0.153%G +0.004%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.54%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 19:30
Casumo1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 00:24
Grosvenor1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 00:25
Bally Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 00:25
betPARX1.14I 87.72%NM 82.03%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-19 00:25
Bet Right1.14I 87.72%NM 81.75%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -13.47%E -0.842%K -0.898%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 19:29
Unibet1.13I 88.50%NM 82.16%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet (SE)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.16%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 00:24
TABtouch1.13I 88.50%NM 82.16%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 00:25
BetRivers1.13I 88.50%NM 82.16%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 00:25
Unibet (NL)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.16%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 00:25
PointsBet (AU)1.13I 88.50%NM 82.16%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 15:50
Betway1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV -18.87%E -1.26%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-23 14:10
LiveScore Bet1.12I 89.29%NM 82.29%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 00:25
LeoVegas (SE)1.12I 89.29%NM 82.29%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-19 00:25
SportsBet1.11I 90.09%NM 82.67%EV -7.84%E -7.06%K -71.28%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV -2.65%E -0.147%K -0.156%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.23%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-20 19:50
betfred_uk1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -7.01%E -6.26%K -58.42%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV -18.87%E -1.26%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-23 15:50
Bet Victor1.10I 90.91%NM 82.80%EV -8.67%E -7.88%K -86.71%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -2.65%E -0.147%K -0.156%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -13.26%E -1.77%K -2.04%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 15:55
NordicBet1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV +8.17%E +0.408%K +0.430%G +0.035%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -14.42%E -1.95%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 15:55
Betsson1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV +8.17%E +0.408%K +0.430%G +0.035%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.63%EV -14.42%E -1.95%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 15:55
PlayUp1.13I 88.50%NM 82.28%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.89%EV +2.76%E +0.145%K +0.153%G +0.004%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.82%EV -16.15%E -2.23%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 15:54
Sky Bet1.14I 87.72%NM 80.72%EV -5.35%E -4.69%K -38.22%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.13%EV -18.87%E -1.26%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -19.04%E -2.72%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-22 17:04
PMU (FR)1.11I 90.09%NM 81.71%EV -7.84%E -7.06%K -71.28%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -19.04%E -2.72%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-19 00:25
Virgin Bet1.11I 90.09%NM 81.71%EV -7.84%E -7.06%K -71.28%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -8.06%E -0.474%K -0.504%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -19.04%E -2.72%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-19 00:25
LeoVegas1.10I 90.91%NM 81.57%EV -8.67%E -7.88%K -86.71%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.61%EV -13.47%E -0.842%K -0.898%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.82%EV -19.04%E -2.72%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-19 00:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.13I 88.50%NM 80.05%EV -6.18%E -5.47%K -47.54%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.03%EV -18.87%E -1.26%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.92%EV -24.82%E -3.82%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-20 21:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.14I 87.72%NM 86.77%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.80%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42%1.1%2026-04-23 20:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.14I 87.72%NM 86.77%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.80%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42%1.1%2026-04-23 20:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.14I 87.72%NM 86.77%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.80%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42%1.1%2026-04-24 03:35
Matchbook1.14I 87.72%NM 86.77%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.80%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.42%1.1%2026-04-23 23:05
Smarkets1.14I 87.72%NM 86.36%25.97I 3.85%NM 3.79%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.85%1.6%2026-04-24 00:04
Kalshi1.15I 86.96%NM 83.64%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.81%8.33I 12.00%NM 11.55%4.0%2026-04-24 03:40