The School of Odds
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Benfica v Gil Vicente

2026-09-13 17:00 UTC — Primeira Liga - Portugal

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benfica (Local)

Prediction 77.50%1.29fair odd
EV -7.00%
Edge -5.84%
Kelly -35.01%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.52%77.50%77.50%78.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.181.171.2086.21%84.90%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gil Vicente (Visit)

Prediction 7.75%12.90fair odd
EV +0.791%
Edge +0.061%
Kelly +0.066%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.23%7.75%7.75%9.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0011.8712.0013.0011.11%8.43%8.33%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.75%6.78fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -0.636%
Kelly -0.752%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.46%14.75%14.75%16.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.206.166.106.5019.23%16.25%16.39%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Benfica (Local): 77.50%; Gil Vicente (Visit): 7.75%; Draw: 14.75%. For Gil Vicente (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.90. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 13.00, producing a positive expected value of +0.791%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -7.00%E -5.84%K -35.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.791%E +0.061%K +0.066%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -4.13%E -0.636%K -0.752%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 17:00
Casumo🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -7.00%E -5.84%K -35.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.791%E +0.061%K +0.066%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -4.13%E -0.636%K -0.752%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 17:00
Bally Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -7.00%E -5.84%K -35.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.791%E +0.061%K +0.066%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -4.13%E -0.636%K -0.752%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 17:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -7.00%E -5.84%K -35.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.791%E +0.061%K +0.066%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -4.13%E -0.636%K -0.752%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 17:00
betPARX🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -7.00%E -5.84%K -35.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.791%E +0.061%K +0.066%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -4.13%E -0.636%K -0.752%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 17:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.31%EV -7.00%E -5.84%K -35.01%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.23%EV +0.791%E +0.061%K +0.066%G +0.001%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -4.13%E -0.636%K -0.752%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-06 17:05
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -9.33%E -7.97%K -54.86%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -6.96%E -0.580%K -0.633%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -7.82%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 17:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -9.33%E -7.97%K -54.86%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -6.96%E -0.580%K -0.633%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -7.82%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 17:05
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.84%EV -9.33%E -7.97%K -54.86%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -6.96%E -0.580%K -0.633%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV -7.82%E -1.25%K -1.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.56%EV -9.33%E -7.97%K -54.86%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -6.96%E -0.580%K -0.633%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.88%EV -10.03%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 17:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.56%EV -9.33%E -7.97%K -54.86%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -6.96%E -0.580%K -0.633%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.88%EV -10.03%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 17:05
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 77.56%EV -9.33%E -7.97%K -54.86%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.56%EV -6.96%E -0.580%K -0.633%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.88%EV -10.03%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-06 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.71%EV -10.10%E -8.71%K -63.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -6.96%E -0.580%K -0.633%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.78%EV -10.03%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 17:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.71%EV -10.10%E -8.71%K -63.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -6.96%E -0.580%K -0.633%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.78%EV -10.03%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 17:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 77.71%EV -10.10%E -8.71%K -63.14%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.51%EV -6.96%E -0.580%K -0.633%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.78%EV -10.03%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-06 17:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 77.16%EV -8.55%E -7.25%K -47.51%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.92%EV -10.84%E -0.942%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.93%EV -10.03%E -1.64%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 17:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 74.52%EV -9.33%E -7.97%K -54.86%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.72%EV -22.47%E -2.25%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.77%EV -23.31%E -4.48%K -5.55%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-06 17:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.09%EV -9.33%E -7.97%K -54.86%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.76%EV -30.22%E -3.36%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.15%EV -14.46%E -2.49%K -3.01%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-06 17:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 74.64%EV -10.10%E -8.71%K -63.14%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.62%EV -30.22%E -3.36%K -3.78%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.74%EV -18.88%E -3.43%K -4.20%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-06 17:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.28I 78.13%NM 68.46%6.67I 14.99%NM 13.14%4.76I 21.01%NM 18.41%14.1%2026-09-06 19:25