Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benfica v Gil Vicente

Kickoff: 2026-09-13 17:01 UTC

Final: Benfica 3–1 Gil Vicente

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Benfica (Local)

Prediction 83.72%1.19fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -12.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.37%83.74%83.81%86.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.111.111.1793.46%90.15%90.09%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gil Vicente (Visit)

Prediction 5.23%19.14fair odd
EV +25.40%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.281%

assuming max odds 24.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
3.86%5.24%5.18%6.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
14.4818.3618.0024.006.91%5.45%5.56%4.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.06%9.04fair odd
EV +21.62%
Edge +1.97%
Kelly +2.16%
Growth +0.467%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.54%11.03%11.01%14.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.608.498.5011.0015.15%11.78%11.76%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benfica (Local): 83.72%; Gil Vicente (Visit): 5.23%; Draw: 11.06%. For Gil Vicente (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 19.14. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 24.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +9.73%E +0.463%K +0.486%G +0.047%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +21.62%E +1.97%K +2.16%G +0.467%6.4%2026-09-13 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.44%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV +16.09%E +1.53%K +1.69%G +0.272%7.1%2026-09-13 16:45
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 86.26%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%21.59I 4.63%NM 4.47%EV +12.81%E +0.593%K +0.622%G +0.080%10.43I 9.59%NM 9.26%EV +15.31%E +1.47%K +1.62%G +0.249%3.5%2026-09-13 16:55
SportsBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.27%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV +20.18%E +0.877%K +0.917%G +0.185%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV +7.80%E +0.800%K +0.891%G +0.069%6.3%2026-09-13 16:40
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.24%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.65%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.11%EV +5.03%E +0.530%K +0.592%G +0.030%4.1%2026-09-13 17:00
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV +5.03%E +0.530%K +0.592%G +0.030%5.9%2026-09-13 16:06
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.16%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.05%EV +20.18%E +0.877%K +0.917%G +0.185%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV +5.03%E +0.530%K +0.592%G +0.030%7.5%2026-09-13 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.89%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 16:26
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.60%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:20
Bally Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
betPARX🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
Betway🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.27%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -21.62%E -1.44%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 16:59
FanDuel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.25%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +9.73%E +0.463%K +0.486%G +0.047%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 16:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.48%EV -10.42%E -9.74%K -148.87%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV +9.73%E +0.463%K +0.486%G +0.047%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.37%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.02%EV -19.01%E -1.23%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.61%EV -2.71%E -0.308%K -0.347%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.37%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.02%EV -19.01%E -1.23%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.61%EV -2.71%E -0.308%K -0.347%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.37%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.02%EV -19.01%E -1.23%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.61%EV -2.71%E -0.308%K -0.347%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:50
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.34%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.77%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.89%EV -3.26%E -0.373%K -0.421%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 16:59
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.47%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.68%EV -3.26%E -0.373%K -0.421%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 16:58
BetUS🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.62%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%16.85I 5.93%NM 5.56%EV -11.96%E -0.710%K -0.754%G +0.000%8.65I 11.56%NM 10.83%EV -4.37%E -0.505%K -0.571%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 16:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.19%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:59
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 16:55
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.21%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:26
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.21%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:26
BoyleSports🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 17:00
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.41%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 17:00
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.41%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 17:00
Bet Right🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.53%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 16:59
Bet Victor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.43%EV -7.91%E -7.19%K -79.09%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:57
BetRivers🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.56%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 16:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.56%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 16:20
TABtouch🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.56%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 16:21
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:05
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:21
NetBet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.55%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.21%EV -24.24%E -1.67%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 16:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.67%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.58%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.75%EV -15.97%E -2.10%K -2.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.89%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 17:00
betano_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 16:59
betfred_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 16:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.28%EV -7.91%E -7.19%K -79.09%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.75%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%16.75I 5.97%NM 5.34%EV -12.48%E -0.745%K -0.792%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 16:59
PlayUp🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.15%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.92%EV -19.84%E -2.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:00
GTbets🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.37%EV -2.05%E -1.75%K -12.05%G +0.000%14.48I 6.91%NM 6.49%EV -24.34%E -1.68%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.16I 13.97%NM 13.13%EV -20.84%E -2.91%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betsson🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.08%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.86%EV +25.40%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.281%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.05%EV -27.03%E -4.10%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 16:36
NordicBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.79%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV +14.95%E +0.680%K +0.712%G +0.106%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.00%EV -27.03%E -4.10%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.15%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.82%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03%0.7%2026-09-13 17:00
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.94%0.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.01%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-09-13 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.59%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.61%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.59%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.61%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Smarkets◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.58%25.97I 3.85%NM 3.81%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.61%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55