Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Benfica v Gil Vicente

Início: 2026-09-13 17:01 UTC

Final: Benfica 3–1 Gil Vicente

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Benfica (Local)

Previsão 83.72%1.19odd justa
EV -2.05%
Vantagem -1.75%
Kelly -12.05%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.17

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
80.37%83.74%83.81%86.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.071.111.111.1793.46%90.15%90.09%85.47%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Gil Vicente (Visitante)

Previsão 5.23%19.14odd justa
EV +25.40%
Vantagem +1.06%
Kelly +1.10%
Crescimento +0.281%

pressupondo odds máximas de 24.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
3.86%5.24%5.18%6.49%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
14.4818.3618.0024.006.91%5.45%5.56%4.17%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 11.06%9.04odd justa
EV +21.62%
Vantagem +1.97%
Kelly +2.16%
Crescimento +0.467%

pressupondo odds máximas de 11.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
8.54%11.03%11.01%14.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
6.608.498.5011.0015.15%11.78%11.76%9.09%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Benfica (Local): 83.72%; Gil Vicente (Visitante): 5.23%; Empate: 11.06%. Para Gil Vicente (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 19.14. 19 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 24.00, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +25.40%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargemAtualização
Sky Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.99%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +9.73%E +0.463%K +0.486%G +0.047%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +21.62%E +1.97%K +2.16%G +0.467%6.4%2026-09-13 16:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.44%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.67%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.89%EV +16.09%E +1.53%K +1.69%G +0.272%7.1%2026-09-13 16:45
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 86.26%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%21.59I 4.63%NM 4.47%EV +12.81%E +0.593%K +0.622%G +0.080%10.43I 9.59%NM 9.26%EV +15.31%E +1.47%K +1.62%G +0.249%3.5%2026-09-13 16:55
SportsBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.27%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.09%EV +20.18%E +0.877%K +0.917%G +0.185%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV +7.80%E +0.800%K +0.891%G +0.069%6.3%2026-09-13 16:40
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.24%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.65%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.11%EV +5.03%E +0.530%K +0.592%G +0.030%4.1%2026-09-13 17:00
Fanatics🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.09%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.97%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV +5.03%E +0.530%K +0.592%G +0.030%5.9%2026-09-13 16:06
Paddy Power🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.16%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.05%EV +20.18%E +0.877%K +0.917%G +0.185%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.79%EV +5.03%E +0.530%K +0.592%G +0.030%7.5%2026-09-13 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.89%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.58%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.53%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-13 16:26
BetMGM🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.60%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.50%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-13 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
Grosvenor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
Casumo🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:20
Bally Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
betPARX🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
ATG (SE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.83%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 16:21
Betway🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.27%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -21.62%E -1.44%K -1.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.46%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 16:59
FanDuel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.25%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.42%EV +9.73%E +0.463%K +0.486%G +0.047%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-13 16:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.48%EV -10.42%E -9.74%K -148.87%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.36%EV +9.73%E +0.463%K +0.486%G +0.047%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.16%EV -0.496%E -0.055%K -0.062%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.37%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.02%EV -19.01%E -1.23%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.61%EV -2.71%E -0.308%K -0.347%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.37%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.02%EV -19.01%E -1.23%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.61%EV -2.71%E -0.308%K -0.347%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 17:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.37%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.02%EV -19.01%E -1.23%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.61%EV -2.71%E -0.308%K -0.347%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-13 16:50
Coolbet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 84.34%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.77%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.89%EV -3.26%E -0.373%K -0.421%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-13 16:59
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.47%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.84%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.68%EV -3.26%E -0.373%K -0.421%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 16:58
BetUS🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.62%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%16.85I 5.93%NM 5.56%EV -11.96%E -0.710%K -0.754%G +0.000%8.65I 11.56%NM 10.83%EV -4.37%E -0.505%K -0.571%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 16:59
Betr (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.19%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.71%EV +4.50%E +0.225%K +0.237%G +0.011%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-13 16:59
888sport🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.50%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.50%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 16:55
Neds🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.21%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:26
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.21%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.82%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:26
BoyleSports🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -6.02%E -0.709%K -0.803%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-13 17:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.05%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.21%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-13 17:00
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.41%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 17:00
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.41%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.92%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-13 17:00
Bet Right🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.18%EV -6.23%E -5.57%K -51.96%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.65%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-13 16:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.53%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.88%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 16:59
Bet Victor🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 83.43%EV -7.91%E -7.19%K -79.09%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.10%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 16:57
BetRivers🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.56%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 16:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.56%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 16:20
TABtouch🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 83.56%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.06%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 16:21
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:05
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 83.68%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.02%EV -5.95%E -0.330%K -0.350%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.30%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 16:21
NetBet (FR)🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 82.55%EV -8.75%E -8.02%K -97.18%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.21%EV -24.24%E -1.67%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -11.55%E -1.44%K -1.65%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-13 16:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.67%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.58%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 11.75%EV -15.97%E -2.10%K -2.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-13 17:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.89%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 17:00
betano_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 16:59
betfred_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -7.07%E -6.37%K -64.29%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV -11.17%E -0.657%K -0.698%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-13 16:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.28%EV -7.91%E -7.19%K -79.09%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.66%EV -16.40%E -1.02%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-13 17:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 82.75%EV -9.58%E -8.87%K -119.80%G +0.000%16.75I 5.97%NM 5.34%EV -12.48%E -0.745%K -0.792%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.92%EV -17.08%E -2.28%K -2.63%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-13 16:59
PlayUp🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.15%EV -4.56%E -4.00%K -32.58%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV -0.722%E -0.038%K -0.040%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.92%EV -19.84%E -2.74%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 17:00
GTbets🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.37%EV -2.05%E -1.75%K -12.05%G +0.000%14.48I 6.91%NM 6.49%EV -24.34%E -1.68%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.16I 13.97%NM 13.13%EV -20.84%E -2.91%K -3.38%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betsson🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.08%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.86%EV +25.40%E +1.06%K +1.10%G +0.281%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.05%EV -27.03%E -4.10%K -4.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-13 16:36
NordicBet🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 81.79%EV -5.40%E -4.78%K -41.52%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV +14.95%E +0.680%K +0.712%G +0.106%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.00%EV -27.03%E -4.10%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 16:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.15%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.82%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.03%0.7%2026-09-13 17:00
Kalshi◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.09%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97%11.11I 9.00%NM 8.94%0.7%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.14I 87.72%NM 87.01%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.97%11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02%0.8%2026-09-13 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.59%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.61%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.59%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.81%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.61%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55
Smarkets◎1.13I 88.50%NM 87.58%25.97I 3.85%NM 3.81%11.49I 8.70%NM 8.61%1.0%2026-09-13 16:55