L’École des cotes

Benfica v Braga

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-11 19:15 UTC

Score final : Benfica 2–2 Braga

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Benfica (Local)

Prévision 68.01%1.47cote équitable
EV -2.06%
Avantage -1.43%
Kelly -4.68%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.44

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
65.06%68.02%67.97%69.94%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.321.371.361.4475.76%73.25%73.53%69.44%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Braga (Visiteur)

Prévision 13.03%7.67cote équitable
EV +6.22%
Avantage +0.763%
Kelly +0.870%
Croissance +0.054%

avec la cote maximale 8.15

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
11.91%13.05%13.09%14.68%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
6.507.217.268.1515.38%13.87%13.77%12.27%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 18.95%5.28cote équitable
EV +1.59%
Avantage +0.296%
Kelly +0.364%
Croissance +0.006%

avec la cote maximale 5.36

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
17.95%18.93%18.94%21.63%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
4.004.884.905.3625.00%20.48%20.41%18.66%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼Match nulMargeMise à jour
1xBet1.39I 71.94%NM 69.94%EV -5.46%E -3.93%K -14.00%G +0.000%8.15I 12.27%NM 11.93%EV +6.22%E +0.763%K +0.870%G +0.054%5.36I 18.66%NM 18.14%EV +1.59%E +0.296%K +0.364%G +0.006%2.9%2026-05-11 18:10
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +4.26%E +0.533%K +0.609%G +0.026%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-11 18:09
Betclic (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 69.55%EV -6.82%E -4.98%K -18.43%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.30%EV +1.00%E +0.130%K +0.149%G +0.001%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -0.497%E -0.095%K -0.117%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-11 18:09
Pinnacle1.38I 72.46%NM 69.30%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.64I 13.09%NM 12.52%EV -0.429%E -0.056%K -0.065%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.18%EV -0.308%E -0.059%K -0.072%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-11 18:35
Marathon Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.27%EV -0.951%E -0.125%K -0.144%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:14
Betr (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 18:09
ATG (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:14
Svenska Spel1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:14
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 14:44
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:10
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:10
Bally Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:13
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:14
Bet Right1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:09
PointsBet (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -6.82%E -4.98%K -18.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet (NL)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
TABtouch1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
BetRivers1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 14:59
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 13:18
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.82%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 18:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 68.59%EV -8.86%E -6.61%K -26.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:10
LiveScore Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 68.59%EV -8.86%E -6.61%K -26.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:09
FanDuel1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -9.54%E -7.17%K -28.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 14:59
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -10.22%E -7.74%K -31.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-11 18:10
Virgin Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -10.22%E -7.74%K -31.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-11 18:10
LeoVegas1.32I 75.76%NM 68.78%EV -10.22%E -7.74%K -31.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-11 18:09
GTbets1.40I 71.43%NM 67.33%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%7.26I 13.77%NM 12.98%EV -5.38%E -0.741%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.68%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-11 14:30
LowVig.ag1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 18:34
BetOnline.ag1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 18:34
Bovada1.36I 73.53%NM 68.76%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -3.34%E -0.655%K -0.815%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:33
BetUS1.36I 73.53%NM 68.76%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -3.34%E -0.655%K -0.815%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:34
NetBet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 68.63%EV -10.22%E -7.74%K -31.94%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.50%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.87%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-11 15:39
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 18:14
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 18:35
DraftKings1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 14:09
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 14:59
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 18:09
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 18:09
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 18:14
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 18:14
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -12.82%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 16:24
Betsson1.39I 71.94%NM 67.46%EV -5.46%E -3.93%K -14.00%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.59%EV -10.07%E -1.46%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.94%EV -6.18%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 17:09
NordicBet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.46%EV -5.46%E -3.93%K -14.00%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.59%EV -10.07%E -1.46%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.94%EV -6.18%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 17:09
Winamax (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.95%EV -6.82%E -4.98%K -18.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -12.03%E -1.78%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -3.34%E -0.655%K -0.815%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 14:34
PlayUp1.38I 72.46%NM 66.89%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -12.03%E -1.78%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 17:09
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -6.82%E -4.98%K -18.43%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -12.68%E -1.89%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -1.45%E -0.278%K -0.344%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.31%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.56%EV -12.68%E -1.89%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.13%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-11 18:14
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -2.06%E -1.43%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-11 18:09
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:09
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:09
Winamax (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-11 14:34
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-11 16:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 65.06%EV -9.54%E -7.17%K -28.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.31%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.63%EV -24.19%E -6.05%K -8.06%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-11 16:35
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-05-11 18:35
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.24%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.08%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68%1.0%2026-05-11 18:35
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Kalshi1.41I 70.92%NM 68.90%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.63%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47%2.9%2026-05-11 18:34