La escuela de los momios

Benfica v Braga

Inicio: 2026-05-11 19:15 UTC

Final: Benfica 2–2 Braga

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Benfica (Local)

Predicción 68.01%1.47momio equitativo
EV -2.06%
Ventaja -1.43%
Kelly -4.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.06%68.02%67.97%69.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.321.371.361.4475.76%73.25%73.53%69.44%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Braga (Visitante)

Predicción 13.03%7.67momio equitativo
EV +6.22%
Ventaja +0.763%
Kelly +0.870%
Crecimiento +0.054%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.91%13.05%13.09%14.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
6.507.217.268.1515.38%13.87%13.77%12.27%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 18.95%5.28momio equitativo
EV +1.59%
Ventaja +0.296%
Kelly +0.364%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.36

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.95%18.93%18.94%21.63%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.884.905.3625.00%20.48%20.41%18.66%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet1.39I 71.94%NM 69.94%EV -5.46%E -3.93%K -14.00%G +0.000%8.15I 12.27%NM 11.93%EV +6.22%E +0.763%K +0.870%G +0.054%5.36I 18.66%NM 18.14%EV +1.59%E +0.296%K +0.364%G +0.006%2.9%2026-05-11 18:10
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 69.04%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV +4.26%E +0.533%K +0.609%G +0.026%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.05%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-11 18:09
Betclic (FR)1.37I 72.99%NM 69.55%EV -6.82%E -4.98%K -18.43%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.30%EV +1.00%E +0.130%K +0.149%G +0.001%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -0.497%E -0.095%K -0.117%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-11 18:09
Pinnacle1.38I 72.46%NM 69.30%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.64I 13.09%NM 12.52%EV -0.429%E -0.056%K -0.065%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.18%EV -0.308%E -0.059%K -0.072%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-11 18:35
Marathon Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 69.08%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.27%EV -0.951%E -0.125%K -0.144%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-11 18:14
Betr (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.23%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.55%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.22%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-11 18:09
ATG (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:14
Svenska Spel1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:14
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 14:44
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:10
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:10
Bally Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:13
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:14
Bet Right1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-11 18:09
PointsBet (AU)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.98%EV -6.82%E -4.98%K -18.43%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.42%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.61%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet (SE)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
Unibet (NL)1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
TABtouch1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
BetRivers1.35I 74.07%NM 68.70%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.93%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 18:10
SportsBet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 14:59
Paddy Power1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-11 13:18
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.71%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.02%EV -12.82%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-11 18:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.34I 74.63%NM 68.59%EV -8.86%E -6.61%K -26.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:10
LiveScore Bet1.34I 74.63%NM 68.59%EV -8.86%E -6.61%K -26.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.15%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-11 18:09
FanDuel1.33I 75.19%NM 68.76%EV -9.54%E -7.17%K -28.91%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.19%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.05%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-11 14:59
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -10.22%E -7.74%K -31.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-11 18:10
Virgin Bet1.32I 75.76%NM 68.92%EV -10.22%E -7.74%K -31.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-11 18:10
LeoVegas1.32I 75.76%NM 68.78%EV -10.22%E -7.74%K -31.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.11%EV -2.25%E -0.301%K -0.347%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.11%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-11 18:09
GTbets1.40I 71.43%NM 67.33%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%7.26I 13.77%NM 12.98%EV -5.38%E -0.741%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 19.68%EV -9.22%E -1.92%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-11 14:30
LowVig.ag1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 18:34
BetOnline.ag1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-11 18:34
Bovada1.36I 73.53%NM 68.76%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -3.34%E -0.655%K -0.815%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:33
BetUS1.36I 73.53%NM 68.76%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.90%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.34%EV -3.34%E -0.655%K -0.815%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-11 18:34
NetBet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 68.63%EV -10.22%E -7.74%K -31.94%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.50%EV -5.51%E -0.760%K -0.882%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.87%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-11 15:39
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 18:14
Fanatics1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-11 18:35
DraftKings1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-11 18:34
Betway1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 14:09
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 68.20%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-11 14:59
888sport1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 18:09
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 18:09
Mr Green (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 18:14
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 67.54%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.12%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.34%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-11 18:14
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -8.77%E -1.25%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -12.82%E -2.79%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-11 16:24
Betsson1.39I 71.94%NM 67.46%EV -5.46%E -3.93%K -14.00%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.59%EV -10.07%E -1.46%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.94%EV -6.18%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 17:09
NordicBet1.39I 71.94%NM 67.46%EV -5.46%E -3.93%K -14.00%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.59%EV -10.07%E -1.46%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.94%EV -6.18%E -1.25%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-11 17:09
Winamax (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.95%EV -6.82%E -4.98%K -18.43%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.79%EV -12.03%E -1.78%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.25%EV -3.34%E -0.655%K -0.815%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-11 14:34
PlayUp1.38I 72.46%NM 66.89%EV -6.14%E -4.45%K -16.16%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -12.03%E -1.78%K -2.09%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-11 17:09
Tipico (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -6.82%E -4.98%K -18.43%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -12.68%E -1.89%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV -1.45%E -0.278%K -0.344%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-11 18:34
Unibet (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.31%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.56%EV -12.68%E -1.89%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.13%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-11 18:14
Coral1.44I 69.44%NM 66.25%EV -2.06%E -1.43%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.68%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -5.24%E -1.05%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-11 18:09
Neds1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:09
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 66.35%EV -4.78%E -3.41%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.29%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.35%EV -9.03%E -1.88%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-11 18:09
Winamax (FR)1.35I 74.07%NM 67.42%EV -8.18%E -6.06%K -23.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.00%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.58%EV -7.13%E -1.46%K -1.83%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-11 14:34
BoyleSports1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -7.50%E -5.52%K -20.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.97%E -2.10%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-11 16:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 65.06%EV -9.54%E -7.17%K -28.91%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.31%EV -15.29%E -2.35%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.63%EV -24.19%E -6.05%K -8.06%G +0.000%15.6%2026-05-11 16:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-05-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%0.7%2026-05-11 18:35
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.24%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.08%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.68%1.0%2026-05-11 18:35
Smarkets1.43I 69.93%NM 68.99%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.03%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-05-11 18:35
Kalshi1.41I 70.92%NM 68.90%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.63%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.47%2.9%2026-05-11 18:34