L’École des cotes

Arouca v Santa Clara

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-02 14:30 UTC

Score final : Arouca 2–2 Santa Clara

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

59 opérateurs (20 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Arouca (Local)

Prévision 34.63%2.89cote équitable
EV -1.30%
Avantage -0.458%
Kelly -0.705%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.85

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.76%34.62%34.63%35.98%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.552.722.722.8539.22%36.70%36.76%35.09%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Santa Clara (Visiteur)

Prévision 34.17%2.93cote équitable
EV -0.576%
Avantage -0.198%
Kelly -0.301%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.91

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
32.83%34.27%34.04%36.62%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.482.672.672.9140.32%37.47%37.45%34.36%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 31.20%3.20cote équitable
EV +0.787%
Avantage +0.244%
Kelly +0.353%
Croissance +0.003%

avec la cote maximale 3.23

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
29.42%31.11%31.33%32.43%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.753.013.003.2336.36%33.23%33.33%30.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (59 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
1xBet2.74I 36.50%NM 35.42%EV -5.11%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.54%EV -3.99%E -1.42%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%EV +0.787%E +0.244%K +0.353%G +0.003%3.0%2026-05-02 14:20
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.58%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.22%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.71%E -0.543%K -0.795%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 09:26
GTbets2.81I 35.59%NM 33.78%EV -2.69%E -0.957%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.69%EV -9.12%E -3.43%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.53%EV -2.96%E -0.951%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 04:45
Ladbrokes (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 10:15
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 10:16
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 09:30
PointsBet (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 09:35
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -8.92%E -3.39%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.51%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 13:30
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -11.69%E -4.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -10.48%E -4.00%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 14:23
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 10:55
ATG (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:16
Svenska Spel2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:15
Casumo2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:15
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:25
Grosvenor2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:14
BetRivers2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:15
betPARX2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:15
Bally Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:15
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 09:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:15
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:15
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.63%EV -8.23%E -3.11%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 10:51
Pinnacle2.78I 35.97%NM 34.85%EV -3.73%E -1.34%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.29%EV -0.576%E -0.198%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.87%EV -5.14%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 14:10
LowVig.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 34.83%EV -5.81%E -2.13%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.59%EV -3.65%E -1.29%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 14:25
BetOnline.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 34.83%EV -5.81%E -2.13%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.59%EV -3.65%E -1.29%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 14:25
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 13:39
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 14:20
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 14:05
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -2.63%E -0.921%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:25
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 13:40
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 13:40
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:25
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:25
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:25
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:25
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 10:14
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 09:35
Unibet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:25
Unibet (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:16
LiveScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:15
Unibet (NL)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:16
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:05
Winamax (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.65%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.33%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 10:50
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -7.19%E -2.68%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.67%EV -5.02%E -1.80%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -7.01%E -2.35%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 14:01
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -7.19%E -2.68%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.67%EV -5.02%E -1.80%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -7.01%E -2.35%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 14:00
Bovada2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.25%EV -3.31%E -1.17%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:10
BetUS2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.25%EV -3.31%E -1.17%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:05
PMU (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -14.58%E -5.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 14:15
Virgin Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -14.58%E -5.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 14:16
LeoVegas2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.46%EV -15.27%E -6.16%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 14:15
Unibet (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -8.23%E -3.11%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.83%EV -14.58%E -5.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 14:09
Everygame2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 09:25
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:04
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:01
Marathon Bet2.72I 36.76%NM 34.29%EV -5.81%E -2.13%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.43%EV -4.68%E -1.68%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.28%EV -9.82%E -3.40%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 14:19
Betclic (FR)2.78I 35.97%NM 33.60%EV -3.73%E -1.34%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.43%EV -10.13%E -3.52%K -5.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:10
NetBet (FR)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.55%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.91%EV -8.78%E -3.29%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.54%EV -10.45%E -3.64%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-02 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -14.58%E -5.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -14.19%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-02 13:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.74%0.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.74%0.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Matchbook2.90I 34.48%NM 34.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.74%0.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.84I 35.21%NM 34.95%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.7%2026-05-02 14:24
Smarkets2.84I 35.21%NM 34.54%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.82%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.64%2.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.82%4.0%2026-05-02 14:05