La escuela de los momios

Arouca v Santa Clara

Inicio: 2026-05-02 14:30 UTC

Final: Arouca 2–2 Santa Clara

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Arouca (Local)

Predicción 34.63%2.89momio equitativo
EV -1.30%
Ventaja -0.458%
Kelly -0.705%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.76%34.62%34.63%35.98%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.552.722.722.8539.22%36.70%36.76%35.09%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Santa Clara (Visitante)

Predicción 34.17%2.93momio equitativo
EV -0.576%
Ventaja -0.198%
Kelly -0.301%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.83%34.27%34.04%36.62%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.482.672.672.9140.32%37.47%37.45%34.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 31.20%3.20momio equitativo
EV +0.787%
Ventaja +0.244%
Kelly +0.353%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.42%31.11%31.33%32.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.753.013.003.2336.36%33.23%33.33%30.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet2.74I 36.50%NM 35.42%EV -5.11%E -1.87%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.54%EV -3.99%E -1.42%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%EV +0.787%E +0.244%K +0.353%G +0.003%3.0%2026-05-02 14:20
Coolbet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.58%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.22%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.19%EV -1.71%E -0.543%K -0.795%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-02 09:26
GTbets2.81I 35.59%NM 33.78%EV -2.69%E -0.957%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.69%EV -9.12%E -3.43%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.53%EV -2.96%E -0.951%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-02 04:45
Ladbrokes (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 10:15
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-02 10:16
Betr (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 09:30
PointsBet (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-02 09:35
Sky Bet2.63I 38.02%NM 35.43%EV -8.92%E -3.39%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.51%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.06%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-02 13:30
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -11.69%E -4.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -10.48%E -4.00%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-02 14:23
Unibet (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-02 10:55
ATG (SE)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:16
Svenska Spel2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.83%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:15
Casumo2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:15
TABtouch2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:25
Grosvenor2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:14
BetRivers2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:15
betPARX2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:15
Bally Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -1.30%E -0.458%K -0.705%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:15
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 09:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:15
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-02 10:15
Winamax (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.63%EV -8.23%E -3.11%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-02 10:51
Pinnacle2.78I 35.97%NM 34.85%EV -3.73%E -1.34%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.29%EV -0.576%E -0.198%K -0.301%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.87%EV -5.14%E -1.69%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-02 14:10
LowVig.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 34.83%EV -5.81%E -2.13%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.59%EV -3.65%E -1.29%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 14:25
BetOnline.ag2.72I 36.76%NM 34.83%EV -5.81%E -2.13%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.59%EV -3.65%E -1.29%K -2.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-02 14:25
FanDuel2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 13:39
Fanatics2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.29%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.43%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 14:20
DraftKings2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.67%EV -4.33%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.42%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-02 14:05
Tipico (DE)2.60I 38.46%NM 35.98%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.83%EV -2.63%E -0.921%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-02 14:25
SportsBet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 13:40
Paddy Power2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-02 13:40
888sport2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:25
William Hill2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:25
888sport (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:25
Mr Green (SE)2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:25
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.91%EV -9.46%E -3.57%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.83%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-02 10:14
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-02 09:35
Unibet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:25
Unibet (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:16
LiveScore Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:15
LeoVegas (SE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:15
Unibet (NL)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.99%EV -3.04%E -1.08%K -1.69%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.79%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-02 14:16
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 35.34%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.03%EV -7.75%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.63%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-02 14:05
Winamax (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.65%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.33%EV -12.88%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.03%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-02 10:50
Betsson2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -7.19%E -2.68%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.67%EV -5.02%E -1.80%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -7.01%E -2.35%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 14:01
NordicBet2.68I 37.31%NM 34.92%EV -7.19%E -2.68%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.67%EV -5.02%E -1.80%K -2.82%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.41%EV -7.01%E -2.35%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-02 14:00
Bovada2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.25%EV -3.31%E -1.17%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:10
BetUS2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.25%EV -3.31%E -1.17%K -1.81%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-02 14:05
PMU (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -14.58%E -5.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 14:15
Virgin Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.28%EV -14.58%E -5.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-02 14:16
LeoVegas2.75I 36.36%NM 32.88%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.46%EV -15.27%E -6.16%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-02 14:15
Unibet (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 33.80%EV -8.23%E -3.11%K -4.99%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.83%EV -14.58%E -5.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -7.95%E -2.69%K -4.08%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-02 14:09
Everygame2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -4.77%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.92%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 09:25
Betway2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:04
PlayUp2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-02 14:01
Marathon Bet2.72I 36.76%NM 34.29%EV -5.81%E -2.13%K -3.38%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.43%EV -4.68%E -1.68%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.28%EV -9.82%E -3.40%K -5.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-02 14:19
Betclic (FR)2.78I 35.97%NM 33.60%EV -3.73%E -1.34%K -2.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -6.04%E -2.20%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.43%EV -10.13%E -3.52%K -5.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-02 14:10
NetBet (FR)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.55%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.91%EV -8.78%E -3.29%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.54%EV -10.45%E -3.64%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-02 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.60I 38.46%NM 33.50%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 34.84%EV -14.58%E -5.83%K -9.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.67%EV -14.19%E -5.16%K -8.11%G +0.000%14.8%2026-05-02 13:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.74%0.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.90I 34.48%NM 34.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.74%0.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Matchbook2.90I 34.48%NM 34.48%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.78%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.74%0.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.84I 35.21%NM 34.95%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.7%2026-05-02 14:24
Smarkets2.84I 35.21%NM 34.54%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.82%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.64%2.0%2026-05-02 14:25
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.59%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.82%4.0%2026-05-02 14:05