La scuola delle quote

Arouca v CF Estrela

Inizio: 2026-04-19 14:32 UTC

Finale: Arouca 1–0 CF Estrela

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

Testa a testa

57 bookmaker (18 nell’analisi )

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Arouca (Casa)

Previsione 42.69%2.34quota equa
EV -0.543%
Vantaggio -0.233%
Kelly -0.408%
Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 2.33

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
41.47%42.81%42.68%46.03%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
1.952.142.152.3351.28%46.78%46.51%42.92%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

CF Estrela (Trasferta)

Previsione 26.98%3.71quota equa
EV +1.43%
Vantaggio +0.381%
Kelly +0.519%
Crescita +0.007%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.76

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
25.08%27.03%27.05%29.94%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
3.003.503.543.7633.33%28.56%28.25%26.60%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Pareggio

Previsione 30.34%3.30quota equa
EV +6.18%
Vantaggio +1.77%
Kelly +2.47%
Crescita +0.153%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.50

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
27.45%30.16%30.28%32.34%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuzione delle quote
2.883.103.103.5034.72%32.27%32.26%28.57%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (57 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggio ▼MargineAggiornamento
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.69%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV +6.18%E +1.77%K +2.47%G +0.153%4.1%2026-04-19 14:30
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -12.49%E -6.10%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV +1.16%E +0.310%K +0.422%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:30
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -12.49%E -6.10%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV +1.16%E +0.310%K +0.422%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:30
Casumo2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.92%E -6.33%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Grosvenor2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.92%E -6.33%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:30
betPARX2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.92%E -6.33%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Bally Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.92%E -6.33%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -10.36%E -4.93%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 14:30
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 14:19
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.77%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.77%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.77%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -14.63%E -7.31%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -14.63%E -7.31%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 14:30
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -17.72%E -5.81%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 14:30
Virgin Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -15.48%E -7.82%K -15.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.85%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 14:30
PMU (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.03%EV -15.91%E -8.08%K -16.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.79%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-19 14:30
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.68%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -19.07%E -6.36%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-19 14:30
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-19 14:30
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.96%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.96%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 14:30
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 14:30
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 14:29
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 14:29
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 14:30
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.16%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 14:29
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 14:30
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.68%E -4.27%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 14:29
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.68%E -4.27%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 14:29
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.68%E -4.27%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 14:29
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -12.33%E -3.79%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 14:29
LeoVegas1.95I 51.28%NM 45.91%EV -16.76%E -8.60%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.22%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.88%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 14:30
Pinnacle2.26I 44.25%NM 42.79%EV -3.53%E -1.56%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.72%EV +1.43%E +0.381%K +0.519%G +0.007%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.50%EV -6.86%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-19 14:29
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -3.96%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 14:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -3.96%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 14:29
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -6.95%E -3.19%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 14:30
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -6.95%E -3.19%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 14:30
1xBet2.33I 42.92%NM 41.64%EV -0.543%E -0.233%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.01%EV +0.622%E +0.167%K +0.228%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.34%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-19 14:29
BetOnline.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 41.47%EV -2.68%E -1.17%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 14:29
LowVig.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 41.47%EV -2.68%E -1.17%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 14:29
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 14:27
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 14:28
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 14:29
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -10.36%E -4.93%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 14:30
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -10.36%E -4.93%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 14:30
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 14:30
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 14:28
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.36%E -4.93%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 14:30
GTbets2.14I 46.73%NM 43.39%EV -8.65%E -4.04%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.16%EV -9.59%E -3.22%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 14:30
Marathon Bet2.21I 45.25%NM 42.22%EV -5.67%E -2.56%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.36%EV -4.50%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.42%EV -9.90%E -3.33%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 14:29
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -10.50%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:29
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 43.16%EV -9.08%E -4.26%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.68%EV -3.42%E -0.957%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.16%EV -10.50%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 14:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -14.63%E -7.31%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -16.37%E -5.28%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -12.63%E -4.38%K -6.72%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (6)

BookmakerCasaTrasfertaPareggioMargine ▲Aggiornamento
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.87%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.5%2026-04-19 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.71%1.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 40.79%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.06%3.0%2026-04-19 14:30