La escuela de los momios

Arouca v CF Estrela

Inicio: 2026-04-19 14:32 UTC

Final: Arouca 1–0 CF Estrela

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Arouca (Local)

Predicción 42.69%2.34momio equitativo
EV -0.543%
Ventaja -0.233%
Kelly -0.408%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.47%42.81%42.68%46.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.952.142.152.3351.28%46.78%46.51%42.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

CF Estrela (Visitante)

Predicción 26.98%3.71momio equitativo
EV +1.43%
Ventaja +0.381%
Kelly +0.519%
Crecimiento +0.007%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.08%27.03%27.05%29.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.503.543.7633.33%28.56%28.25%26.60%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.34%3.30momio equitativo
EV +6.18%
Ventaja +1.77%
Kelly +2.47%
Crecimiento +0.153%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.45%30.16%30.28%32.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.103.103.5034.72%32.27%32.26%28.57%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet2.15I 46.51%NM 44.69%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.85%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.45%EV +6.18%E +1.77%K +2.47%G +0.153%4.1%2026-04-19 14:30
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -12.49%E -6.10%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV +1.16%E +0.310%K +0.422%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:30
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -12.49%E -6.10%K -11.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV +1.16%E +0.310%K +0.422%G +0.005%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-19 14:30
Casumo2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.92%E -6.33%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Grosvenor2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.92%E -6.33%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:30
betPARX2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.92%E -6.33%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Bally Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -12.92%E -6.33%K -12.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.81%EV -1.40%E -0.431%K -0.623%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Sky Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -10.36%E -4.93%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 14:30
BetRivers2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 14:19
TABtouch2.02I 49.50%NM 45.93%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -0.187%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.99%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Unibet2.02I 49.50%NM 45.77%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
Unibet (SE)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.77%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
Unibet (NL)2.02I 49.50%NM 45.77%EV -13.78%E -6.82%K -13.51%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
LiveScore Bet2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -14.63%E -7.31%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.02%EV -14.63%E -7.31%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-19 14:30
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.94%EV -17.72%E -5.81%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.54%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 14:30
Virgin Bet1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -15.48%E -7.82%K -15.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.85%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-19 14:30
PMU (FR)1.97I 50.76%NM 46.03%EV -15.91%E -8.08%K -16.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.79%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-19 14:30
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 41.68%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.87%EV -19.07%E -6.36%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.45%EV -4.43%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-19 14:30
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-19 14:30
Coral2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.96%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.96%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-19 14:30
FanDuel2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-19 14:30
PointsBet (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 14:29
Betr (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 14:29
Tipico (DE)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-19 14:30
Bet Right2.15I 46.51%NM 43.16%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-19 14:29
Betway2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-19 14:30
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.68%E -4.27%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 14:29
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.68%E -4.27%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 14:29
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -13.68%E -4.27%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-19 14:29
Bet Victor2.15I 46.51%NM 42.46%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -12.33%E -3.79%K -5.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.45%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-19 14:29
LeoVegas1.95I 51.28%NM 45.91%EV -16.76%E -8.60%K -17.65%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.22%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.88%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-19 14:30
Pinnacle2.26I 44.25%NM 42.79%EV -3.53%E -1.56%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.72%EV +1.43%E +0.381%K +0.519%G +0.007%3.07I 32.57%NM 31.50%EV -6.86%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-19 14:29
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -3.96%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 14:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -3.96%E -1.76%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.88%EV -9.63%E -2.87%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-19 14:29
Betsson2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -6.95%E -3.19%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 14:30
NordicBet2.18I 45.87%NM 42.61%EV -6.95%E -3.19%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -6.93%E -2.01%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.46%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-19 14:30
1xBet2.33I 42.92%NM 41.64%EV -0.543%E -0.233%K -0.408%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 26.01%EV +0.622%E +0.167%K +0.228%G +0.001%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.34%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-19 14:29
BetOnline.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 41.47%EV -2.68%E -1.17%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 14:29
LowVig.ag2.28I 43.86%NM 41.47%EV -2.68%E -1.17%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.52%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-19 14:29
Bovada2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 14:27
Everygame2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 14:28
DraftKings2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -4.23%E -1.19%K -1.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Unibet (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.58%E -1.60%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-19 14:29
BetMGM2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
PlayUp2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-19 14:30
SportsBet2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -10.36%E -4.93%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 14:30
Paddy Power2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -10.36%E -4.93%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -2.89%E -0.801%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 14:30
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-19 14:30
betfred_uk2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.23%E -3.83%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.28%E -2.44%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 14:28
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.36%E -4.93%K -9.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.98%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-19 14:30
GTbets2.14I 46.73%NM 43.39%EV -8.65%E -4.04%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.44%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.16%EV -9.59%E -3.22%K -4.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-19 14:30
Marathon Bet2.21I 45.25%NM 42.22%EV -5.67%E -2.56%K -4.68%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.36%EV -4.50%E -1.27%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.42%EV -9.90%E -3.33%K -5.02%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-19 14:29
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 42.58%EV -6.09%E -2.77%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -1.54%E -0.421%K -0.580%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.75%EV -10.50%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-19 14:29
Betclic (FR)2.13I 46.95%NM 43.16%EV -9.08%E -4.26%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.68%EV -3.42%E -0.957%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.16%EV -10.50%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-19 14:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -14.63%E -7.31%K -14.63%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -16.37%E -5.28%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -12.63%E -4.38%K -6.72%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.32I 43.10%NM 42.87%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.60%0.5%2026-04-19 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.93%1.0%2026-04-19 14:30
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 41.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.30%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.71%1.8%2026-04-19 14:30
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 40.79%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.06%3.0%2026-04-19 14:30