Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.50
assuming max odds 3.34
assuming max odds 3.17
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 40.11%; Santa Clara (Visit): 29.61%; Draw: 30.28%. For Alverca (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.49. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.287%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casumo🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV +0.287%E +0.115%K +0.191%G +0.001% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -12.66%E -4.29%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 14:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV +0.287%E +0.115%K +0.191%G +0.001% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -12.66%E -4.29%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV +0.287%E +0.115%K +0.191%G +0.001% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -12.66%E -4.29%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 14:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV +0.287%E +0.115%K +0.191%G +0.001% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -12.66%E -4.29%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV +0.287%E +0.115%K +0.191%G +0.001% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -12.66%E -4.29%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.49%EV +0.287%E +0.115%K +0.191%G +0.001% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.77%EV -12.66%E -4.29%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.73%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.94%EV -1.72%E -0.702%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.77%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%EV -4.62%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-29 14:19 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 38.82%EV -2.52%E -1.04%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.95%EV -6.74%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.24%EV -8.56%E -2.83%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV -9.70%E -3.18%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -4.62%E -1.47%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -15.62%E -5.48%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -10.68%E -3.62%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -15.62%E -5.48%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -10.68%E -3.62%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-29 14:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -15.62%E -5.48%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -10.68%E -3.62%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -15.62%E -5.48%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -10.68%E -3.62%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -15.62%E -5.48%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -10.68%E -3.62%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-29 14:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -3.72%E -1.55%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.71%EV -15.62%E -5.48%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 30.63%EV -10.68%E -3.62%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 40.49%EV -4.13%E -1.73%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.98%EV -1.11%E -0.333%K -0.476%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.53%EV -4.02%E -1.27%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.16%E -3.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -17.10%E -6.11%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -17.10%E -6.11%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -4.53%E -1.90%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -17.10%E -6.11%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -4.93%E -2.08%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -4.93%E -2.08%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.12%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.41%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.85%EV -3.78%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -9.16%E -3.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-29 14:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.72%EV -5.73%E -2.44%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.17%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.11%EV -9.16%E -3.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-29 14:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -6.93%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-29 14:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.43%EV -6.93%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.31%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-29 14:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -6.93%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -6.74%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -9.16%E -3.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 39.84%EV -6.93%E -2.99%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.34%EV -6.74%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -9.16%E -3.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.38%EV -7.33%E -3.18%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -5.85%E -1.84%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 30.29%EV -6.74%E -2.19%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-29 14:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -2.30%E -0.696%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-29 14:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV -2.30%E -0.696%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-29 14:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-29 14:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-29 14:19 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -9.16%E -3.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.05%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -6.74%E -2.14%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -9.16%E -3.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-29 14:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.07%EV -7.74%E -3.36%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -12.19%E -4.20%K -6.42%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-08-29 14:05 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.74%E -4.33%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.16%E -3.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-29 14:23 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.39%EV -9.74%E -4.33%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 40.73%EV -10.54%E -4.73%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 3.08I 32.47%NM 29.49%EV -8.81%E -2.86%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 40.52%EV -10.95%E -4.93%K -8.97%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -9.70%E -3.18%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.99%EV -9.16%E -3.05%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-29 14:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.33%EV -11.75%E -5.34%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -6.14%E -1.98%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-08-29 14:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -11.75%E -5.34%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -9.70%E -3.18%K -4.73%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.53%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-29 14:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.32%EV -11.75%E -5.34%K -9.79%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.59%EV -14.14%E -4.88%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 29.09%EV -7.65%E -2.51%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 0.6% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 0.6% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 0.6% | 2026-08-29 14:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.82% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.08% | 0.6% | 2026-08-29 14:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.93% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.13% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95% | 1.0% | 2026-08-29 14:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.19% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.45% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36% | 2.0% | 2026-08-29 14:25 |