Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.17
assuming max odds 3.78
assuming max odds 3.30
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alverca (Local): 44.53%; CF Estrela (Visit): 26.54%; Draw: 28.94%. For CF Estrela (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.78, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.309%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.00%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.59%EV +0.309%E +0.082%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.41%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.81%E -0.490%K -0.672%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 13:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -3.14%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -3.14%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-15 13:43 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 14:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.85%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 28.88%EV -6.54%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 44.61%EV -6.94%E -3.32%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-15 14:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.91%EV -3.38%E -1.56%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-15 14:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-15 13:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 13:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-15 13:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -13.19%E -4.40%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -13.19%E -4.40%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -13.19%E -4.40%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -13.19%E -4.40%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-15 14:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-15 13:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 45.28%EV -11.39%E -5.72%K -11.51%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.60%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-13 04:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 14:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-15 14:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-15 14:23 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-15 14:04 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 10:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 10:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 10:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 10:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 10:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 10:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 10:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 10:39 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-15 10:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-08-15 14:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-08-15 09:54 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-15 06:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.62%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.33%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-08-15 14:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 10:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 10:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 10:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 10:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 10:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-08-15 10:40 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.58% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.81% | 0.1% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.80% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69% | 0.5% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.80% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69% | 0.5% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.80% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69% | 0.5% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.51% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.49% | 1.2% | 2026-08-15 14:20 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.68% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20% | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.12% | 3.1% | 2026-08-15 14:25 |