Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alverca v CF Estrela

Início: 2026-08-15 14:30 UTC

Final: Alverca 2–2 CF Estrela

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

57 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Alverca (Local)

Previsão 44.53%2.25odd justa
EV -3.38%
Vantagem -1.56%
Kelly -2.89%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.17

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.90%44.49%44.52%45.57%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.992.102.102.1750.25%47.56%47.62%46.08%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

CF Estrela (Visitante)

Previsão 26.54%3.77odd justa
EV +0.309%
Vantagem +0.082%
Kelly +0.111%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.78

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.25%26.55%26.52%28.01%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.443.503.7831.25%29.05%28.57%26.46%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 28.94%3.46odd justa
EV -4.51%
Vantagem -1.37%
Kelly -1.96%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.30

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.62%28.96%28.96%30.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.003.193.203.3033.33%31.35%31.25%30.30%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Alverca (Local): 44.53%; CF Estrela (Visitante): 26.54%; Empate: 28.94%. Para CF Estrela (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.77. 1 casa de apostas oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.78, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +0.309%.

Odds das casas de apostas (57 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.00%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.59%EV +0.309%E +0.082%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.41%EV -4.80%E -1.46%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 14:14
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -1.81%E -0.490%K -0.672%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 13:40
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -3.14%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 14:14
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.81%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.78%EV -3.14%E -0.860%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-15 14:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 14:24
LowVig.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.96%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-15 14:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-15 14:09
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.47%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-15 13:43
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.11%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.18%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 14:05
GTbets🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.85%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.88%EV -6.54%E -2.02%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-15 14:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.61%EV -6.94%E -3.32%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.13%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 14:24
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:49
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.88%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -5.79%E -1.63%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-15 13:49
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.91%EV -3.38%E -1.56%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.22%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 14:04
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 13:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 14:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 14:14
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 14:14
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 13:44
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 14:14
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 14:25
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.88%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-15 13:45
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -13.19%E -4.40%K -6.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 14:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -13.19%E -4.40%K -6.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -13.19%E -4.40%K -6.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 14:20
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -13.19%E -4.40%K -6.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 14:19
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 13:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-15 14:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -7.12%E -2.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 14:14
Unibet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.28%EV -11.39%E -5.72%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.12%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.60%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-15 14:09
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.95%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -8.45%E -2.45%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.00%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-15 14:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-13 04:30
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 14:14
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-15 14:05
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-15 14:09
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-15 14:25
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.77%E -2.87%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -4.51%E -1.37%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-15 14:23
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-15 14:04
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 10:39
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 10:39
PMU (FR)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 10:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 10:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 10:40
BetRivers🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 10:44
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 10:39
Bally Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 10:39
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.11%EV -3.82%E -1.77%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 10:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.98%EV -11.10%E -3.31%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-15 14:09
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -7.40%E -2.31%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 09:54
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.41%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.01%EV -5.96%E -1.83%K -2.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-15 06:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.62%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -12.43%E -3.77%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.33%EV -8.85%E -2.81%K -4.12%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-15 14:10
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:40
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.09%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -15.08%E -4.71%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.91%EV -10.30%E -3.32%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-15 10:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.58%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.61%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.81%0.1%2026-08-15 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.80%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-08-15 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.80%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-08-15 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.80%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.50%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-08-15 14:25
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.49%1.2%2026-08-15 14:20
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 44.68%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.20%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.12%3.1%2026-08-15 14:25