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Wisła Płock v Lech Poznań
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Wisła Płock (Local)
Prediction 24.39%4.10fair odd
EV +7.34%
Edge +1.67%
Kelly +2.16%
Growth +0.158%
assuming max odds 4.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.92%24.38%24.42%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.773.804.4030.77%26.51%26.32%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lech Poznań (Visit)
Prediction 50.26%1.99fair odd
EV -3.50%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.80%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.81%50.39%49.93%53.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.801.9259.88%55.45%55.56%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.34%3.95fair odd
EV +1.37%
Edge +0.343%
Kelly +0.457%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.51%25.24%25.65%27.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.643.604.0030.30%27.45%27.78%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Wisła Płock (Local): 24.39%; Lech Poznań (Visit): 50.26%; Draw: 25.34%. For Wisła Płock (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.34%.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV +7.34%E +1.67%K +2.16%G +0.158% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -11.04%E -6.23%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-10 06:37 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.47%EV +4.90%E +1.14%K +1.48%G +0.073% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 52.16%EV -11.04%E -6.23%K -14.33%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -11.30%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-10 15:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.42%E -0.605%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -9.53%E -5.29%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV +1.37%E +0.343%K +0.457%G +0.006% | 5.6% | 2026-08-10 15:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -2.42%E -0.605%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -12.04%E -6.88%K -16.05%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -1.16%E -0.298%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-10 15:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -2.42%E -0.605%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.16%EV -12.54%E -7.21%K -16.95%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.72%EV -1.16%E -0.298%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-10 15:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -2.42%E -0.605%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -13.05%E -7.54%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -3.70%E -0.973%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-10 15:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -2.42%E -0.605%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -13.05%E -7.54%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -3.70%E -0.973%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-10 15:34 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -2.42%E -0.605%K -0.807%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -13.05%E -7.54%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -4.96%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-10 08:51 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -4.86%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -6.01%E -3.21%K -6.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-10 05:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -4.86%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -13.05%E -7.54%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -1.16%E -0.298%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-10 18:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -4.86%E -1.25%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -13.05%E -7.54%K -17.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -1.16%E -0.298%K -0.401%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-10 19:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.81I 26.25%NM 24.80%EV -7.06%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.73%EV -4.50%E -2.37%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 3.71I 26.95%NM 25.47%EV -5.98%E -1.61%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-10 05:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.30%E -1.92%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.53%E -5.29%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -3.70%E -0.973%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-10 13:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.30%E -1.92%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.53%E -5.29%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -3.70%E -0.973%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-10 13:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.30%E -1.92%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -9.53%E -5.29%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -3.70%E -0.973%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-10 13:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.33%EV -8.52%E -2.27%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 52.38%EV -16.06%E -9.62%K -23.97%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -8.77%E -2.44%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-08-11 15:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -10.96%E -3.00%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.95%EV -5.00%E -2.65%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.77%E -2.44%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-10 04:33 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.35%EV -10.96%E -3.00%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.95%EV -5.00%E -2.65%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -8.77%E -2.44%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-10 04:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -12.18%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -3.50%E -1.82%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -10.03%E -2.83%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -12.18%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.21%EV -3.50%E -1.82%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -10.03%E -2.83%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -12.18%E -3.38%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 51.52%EV -16.06%E -9.62%K -23.97%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -11.30%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-08-10 15:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -14.62%E -4.18%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -4.00%E -2.09%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.77%E -2.44%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-08-09 21:29 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -14.62%E -4.18%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -4.00%E -2.09%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.30%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-09 20:04 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.43I 29.15%NM 25.59%EV -16.33%E -4.76%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 48.22%EV -8.52%E -4.68%K -10.39%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -15.10%E -4.51%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-09 20:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.52%EV -17.06%E -5.02%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.20%EV -9.53%E -5.29%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.29%EV -16.37%E -4.96%K -7.12%G +0.000% | 15.3% | 2026-08-09 20:04 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -19.50%E -5.91%K -8.48%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 47.83%EV -7.52%E -4.09%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -12.57%E -3.64%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 26.59%EV -20.72%E -6.37%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.00%EV -9.53%E -5.29%K -11.91%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.41%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-08-09 20:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.94% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.36% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.69% | 4.9% | 2026-08-11 19:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33% | 197.0% | 2026-08-11 16:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33% | 197.0% | 2026-08-11 16:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33% | 197.0% | 2026-08-11 16:09 |