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Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin

2026-10-12 16:00 UTC — Ekstraklasa - Poland

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Radomiak Radom (Local)

Prediction 40.43%2.47fair odd
EV +1.48%
Edge +0.588%
Kelly +0.978%
Growth +0.014%

assuming max odds 2.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.76%40.38%40.25%42.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.232.222.5148.78%44.85%45.05%39.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Motor Lublin (Visit)

Prediction 32.52%3.08fair odd
EV -1.46%
Edge -0.483%
Kelly -0.722%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.28%32.51%32.50%33.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.792.753.0338.46%35.85%36.36%33.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.05%3.70fair odd
EV +0.630%
Edge +0.169%
Kelly +0.232%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.73%27.11%27.25%30.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.063.363.303.7232.68%29.75%30.30%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Radomiak Radom (Local): 40.43%; Motor Lublin (Visit): 32.52%; Draw: 27.05%. For Radomiak Radom (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.51, producing a positive expected value of +1.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.76%EV +1.48%E +0.588%K +0.978%G +0.014%3.03I 33.00%NM 31.28%EV -1.46%E -0.483%K -0.722%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.97%EV -17.22%E -5.63%K -8.36%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-29 15:35
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -4.99%E -2.12%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.32%E -2.57%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-29 15:32
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -7.01%E -3.05%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -10.57%E -3.84%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.03%E -2.36%K -3.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-29 16:14
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -7.01%E -3.05%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -7.32%E -2.57%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -12.08%E -3.72%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-29 13:10
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -7.01%E -3.05%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.09%EV -7.32%E -2.57%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -12.08%E -3.72%K -5.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-29 13:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.01%E -3.05%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.57%E -3.84%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-29 15:35
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -7.01%E -3.05%K -5.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -10.57%E -3.84%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -10.73%E -3.25%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-29 15:34
1xBet🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 41.33%EV -9.44%E -4.21%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.79%EV -10.90%E -3.98%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.89%EV +0.630%E +0.169%K +0.232%G +0.001%8.0%2026-09-29 13:10
Marathon Bet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.44%EV -10.25%E -4.62%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.82%EV -11.55%E -4.24%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 24.73%EV +0.630%E +0.169%K +0.232%G +0.001%8.7%2026-09-29 16:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 40.56%EV -11.86%E -5.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 31.81%EV -9.59%E -3.45%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -13.44%E -4.20%K -6.11%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-29 13:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -13.08%E -6.08%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -5.69%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-29 15:29
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -13.08%E -6.08%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -5.69%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-29 15:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -13.08%E -6.08%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -5.69%E -1.96%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-29 15:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.69%EV -13.08%E -6.08%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.40%EV -12.20%E -4.52%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.92%EV -12.08%E -3.72%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-29 13:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.27%EV -13.08%E -6.08%K -11.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.67%EV -13.82%E -5.22%K -8.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.06%EV -13.44%E -4.20%K -6.11%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-29 13:10
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.53%EV -15.10%E -7.19%K -13.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -15.45%E -5.94%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.92%EV -5.32%E -1.52%K -2.13%G +0.000%14.7%2026-09-29 15:55
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.31%EV -17.12%E -8.35%K -16.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.37%EV -12.20%E -4.52%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.32%EV -16.14%E -5.21%K -7.69%G +0.000%18.1%2026-09-29 13:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.28%Pinnacle 2.51 (40.0%) / Pinnacle 3.03 (33.1%) / 1xBet 3.72 (27.0%)Show all 2 combinations
Radomiak Radom (Local)Motor Lublin (Visit)DrawMargin
Pinnacle🎯 2.51 (40.0%)Pinnacle🎯 3.03 (33.1%)1xBet🎯 3.72 (27.0%)+0.275%
Pinnacle🎯 2.51 (40.0%)Pinnacle🎯 3.03 (33.1%)Marathon Bet🎯 3.72 (27.0%)+0.275%