Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pogoń Szczecin v Wisła Płock

Inicio: 2026-09-07 18:30 UTC

Final: Pogoń Szczecin 1–1 Wisła Płock

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Pogoń Szczecin (Local)

Predicción 42.79%2.34momio equitativo
EV -2.88%
Ventaja -1.27%
Kelly -2.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.27

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
41.31%43.04%42.70%45.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.102.102.2751.28%47.52%47.62%44.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Wisła Płock (Visitante)

Predicción 29.85%3.35momio equitativo
EV +2.98%
Ventaja +0.864%
Kelly +1.22%
Crecimiento +0.036%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.27%29.68%29.85%30.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.143.103.4534.48%31.82%32.26%28.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.36%3.65momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.414%
Kelly -0.573%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.10%27.28%27.45%28.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.363.353.6031.25%29.78%29.85%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Pogoń Szczecin (Local): 42.79%; Wisła Płock (Visitante): 29.85%; Empate: 27.36%. Para Wisła Płock (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.35. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.45, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.98%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.45%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV +2.98%E +0.864%K +1.22%G +0.036%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.45%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV +2.98%E +0.864%K +1.22%G +0.036%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:15
Casumo🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.45%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV +2.98%E +0.864%K +1.22%G +0.036%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:15
Grosvenor🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.45%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV +2.98%E +0.864%K +1.22%G +0.036%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.45%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV +2.98%E +0.864%K +1.22%G +0.036%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:15
betPARX🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.45%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV +2.98%E +0.864%K +1.22%G +0.036%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.45%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV +2.98%E +0.864%K +1.22%G +0.036%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.45%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV +2.98%E +0.864%K +1.22%G +0.036%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-07 18:15
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -14.43%E -7.21%K -14.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -1.50%E -0.453%K -0.650%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-07 18:14
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.95%EV -2.09%E -0.638%K -0.918%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.90%EV -3.40%E -0.964%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-07 18:25
TABtouch🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.39%EV -15.71%E -7.98%K -16.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -2.99%E -0.919%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-07 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.33%EV -16.14%E -8.23%K -16.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -2.99%E -0.919%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-07 18:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.33%EV -16.14%E -8.23%K -16.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -2.99%E -0.919%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-07 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -16.57%E -8.50%K -17.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -2.99%E -0.919%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-07 18:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.45%EV -16.57%E -8.50%K -17.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -2.99%E -0.919%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.27%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-07 18:15
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.43%EV -2.88%E -1.27%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.82%EV -3.58%E -1.11%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.76%EV -5.05%E -1.45%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-07 18:25
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.84%EV -7.15%E -3.30%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.73%EV -4.48%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.43%EV -1.49%E -0.414%K -0.573%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-07 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -4.48%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.43%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-07 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.44%EV -5.02%E -2.26%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.48%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-07 18:25
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.44%EV -5.02%E -2.26%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.44%EV -4.48%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-07 18:25
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -4.48%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-07 17:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -12.29%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -4.48%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-07 18:10
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -4.48%E -1.40%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-07 18:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.53%EV -6.73%E -3.09%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.71%EV -6.87%E -2.20%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.76%EV -8.60%E -2.58%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-07 18:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 18:10
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-07 18:15
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.99%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.75%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-07 18:24
Bovada🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.30%EV -6.73%E -3.09%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-07 18:19
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 18:15
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -7.47%E -2.41%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-07 18:25
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -8.96%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 18:10
NordicBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -8.96%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 18:10
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -8.96%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 18:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -8.96%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-07 18:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.95%EV -12.29%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.54%EV -8.96%E -2.94%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-07 18:25
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-07 18:14
betano_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-07 18:13
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.31%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.32%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.37%EV -5.59%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-07 18:10
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.43%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.43%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.43%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-07 18:15
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.57%EV -9.29%E -4.38%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-07 18:10
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-07 18:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-07 18:25
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.57%EV -12.29%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.77%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-07 18:25
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -12.29%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-07 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -12.29%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.45%E -3.48%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-07 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.16%EV -12.29%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.79%EV -11.35%E -3.82%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.06%EV -10.52%E -3.22%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 18:09
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.18%EV -12.29%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.00%EV -11.94%E -4.05%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.82%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-07 18:10
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 42.45%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.09%EV -12.84%E -4.40%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.46%EV -12.43%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-07 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -12.29%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -13.44%E -4.63%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-07 18:10
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.19%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.55%EV -13.44%E -4.63%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.26%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-07 18:15
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.95%EV -12.29%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.36%EV -13.44%E -4.63%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-07 17:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.27I 44.05%NM 44.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 29.27%3.85I 25.97%NM 26.23%-1.0%2026-09-07 18:10
Matchbook◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-09-07 18:25
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.56%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-09-07 18:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.56%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-09-07 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.56%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-09-07 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.56%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.38%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.05%1.3%2026-09-07 18:25