Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Legia Warszawa v Widzew Łódź

Início: 2026-09-13 15:30 UTC

Final: Legia Warszawa 1–1 Widzew Łódź

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

53 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Legia Warszawa (Local)

Previsão 48.22%2.07odd justa
EV -4.04%
Vantagem -2.03%
Kelly -4.08%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.99

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
46.69%48.25%48.19%49.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.801.891.911.9955.56%52.80%52.36%50.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Widzew Łódź (Visitante)

Previsão 24.34%4.11odd justa
EV -2.66%
Vantagem -0.664%
Kelly -0.886%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 4.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
23.05%24.34%24.34%25.40%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.503.793.804.0028.57%26.41%26.32%25.00%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 27.44%3.64odd justa
EV -1.48%
Vantagem -0.412%
Kelly -0.571%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.59

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
26.69%27.41%27.47%28.25%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.173.343.303.5931.55%29.91%30.30%27.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Legia Warszawa (Local): 48.22%; Widzew Łódź (Visitante): 24.34%; Empate: 27.44%. Para Empate, essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.64. Nenhuma casa de apostas elegível oferecia odds de fecho acima desse nível: as melhores eram 3.59, com valor esperado de -1.48%; não produziam valor esperado positivo.

Odds das casas de apostas (53 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargemAtualização
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.34%EV -4.04%E -2.03%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.86%EV -5.82%E -1.50%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.80%EV -1.48%E -0.412%K -0.571%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-13 15:16
Coolbet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.08%EV -4.52%E -2.28%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -6.31%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-13 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.95%EV -5.49%E -2.80%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -6.31%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.95%EV -5.49%E -2.80%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -6.31%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 15:26
BetUS🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.95%EV -5.49%E -2.80%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.41%EV -6.31%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-13 15:25
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.97%E -3.06%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-13 15:20
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.97%E -3.06%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -5.09%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-13 15:14
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.53%EV -5.97%E -3.06%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-13 15:05
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.97%E -3.06%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 15:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.69%EV -5.97%E -3.06%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.02%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 15:25
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.00%EV -6.45%E -3.32%K -6.86%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.44%EV -7.28%E -1.91%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.55%EV -7.24%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-13 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -6.93%E -3.59%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.09%E -1.31%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-13 15:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.23%EV -7.41%E -3.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.40%EV -7.24%E -2.14%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-13 15:15
Bovada🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.99%EV -7.41%E -3.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.90%EV -9.96%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 15:26
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.91%EV -7.41%E -3.86%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.21%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-13 15:15
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-13 15:11
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 15:16
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 15:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.84%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 15:15
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 15:16
betano_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -9.96%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 15:14
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.73%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.64%EV -9.96%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-13 15:14
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 15:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 15:15
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.32%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.43%EV -9.96%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.25%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-13 15:26
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 15:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 15:10
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.01%EV -7.90%E -4.13%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.94%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-13 15:11
NordicBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.12%EV -8.38%E -4.41%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -6.31%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.13%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 15:05
Betsson🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.12%EV -8.38%E -4.41%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -6.31%E -1.64%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.13%EV -10.81%E -3.33%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-13 15:05
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.97%EV -8.38%E -4.41%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.14%EV -13.61%E -3.83%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-13 15:25
Fanatics🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.31%EV -8.86%E -4.69%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-13 15:16
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -2.66%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 15:21
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -2.66%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 15:20
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -2.66%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 15:21
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -2.66%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 15:21
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -2.66%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -2.66%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 15:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -2.66%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 15:20
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -2.66%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.95%E -1.13%K -1.58%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-13 15:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.52%EV -9.34%E -4.97%K -10.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -9.96%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.83%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-13 15:05
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.07%EV -10.31%E -5.54%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-13 15:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -10.79%E -5.83%K -12.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -2.66%E -0.664%K -0.886%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.69%E -1.97%K -2.79%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-13 15:25
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.31%EV -11.75%E -6.42%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -8.07%E -2.41%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-13 15:11
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.14%EV -11.75%E -6.42%K -14.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -14.83%E -4.24%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.69%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-13 15:26
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.25%EV -12.24%E -6.72%K -14.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-13 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.38%EV -12.72%E -7.03%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.99%EV -11.18%E -3.06%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 27.63%EV -13.01%E -4.10%K -5.99%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-13 15:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.35%EV -12.72%E -7.03%K -15.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.31%EV -12.39%E -3.44%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.35%EV -12.18%E -3.81%K -5.54%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-13 15:16
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -13.20%E -7.33%K -16.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -7.52%E -1.98%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-13 15:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -13.20%E -7.33%K -16.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 15:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -13.20%E -7.33%K -16.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 15:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -13.20%E -7.33%K -16.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 15:11
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -13.20%E -7.33%K -16.50%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -8.74%E -2.33%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -9.44%E -2.86%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-13 15:11
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.72%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-09-13 15:21
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.45%1.2%2026-09-13 15:16
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.45%1.2%2026-09-13 15:16
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.44%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.45%1.2%2026-09-13 15:21
Kalshi◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.02%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.51%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-09-13 15:16
Smarkets◎2.02I 49.50%NM 48.40%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.44%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.16%2.3%2026-09-13 15:21