The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Legia Warszawa v Lech Poznań

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 16:32 UTC

Final: Legia Warszawa 1–2 Lech Poznań

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Legia Warszawa (Local)

Prediction 35.96%2.78fair odd
EV -2.92%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.53%35.99%35.97%37.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.562.572.7042.02%39.10%38.91%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lech Poznań (Visit)

Prediction 37.34%2.68fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.56%37.27%37.36%38.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.432.432.5645.45%41.18%41.15%39.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.70%3.74fair odd
EV +0.138%
Edge +0.037%
Kelly +0.050%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.84%26.74%26.67%28.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.433.403.7531.25%29.16%29.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Legia Warszawa (Local): 35.96%; Lech Poznań (Visit): 37.34%; Draw: 26.70%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.138%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -8.31%E -3.26%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -4.79%E -1.88%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV +0.138%E +0.037%K +0.050%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 16:13
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.77%EV -3.27%E -1.22%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.58%EV -4.41%E -1.72%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.65%EV -3.60%E -0.997%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-25 16:14
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.07%EV -6.51%E -2.50%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.51%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.42%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-25 16:06
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -4.71%E -1.78%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -9.27%E -3.81%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 22:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -4.71%E -1.78%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -9.27%E -3.81%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 22:00
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -4.71%E -1.78%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -9.27%E -3.81%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 22:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -4.71%E -1.78%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -9.27%E -3.81%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 22:00
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -4.71%E -1.78%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -9.27%E -3.81%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 22:00
betPARX🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -4.71%E -1.78%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -9.27%E -3.81%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 22:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -4.71%E -1.78%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -9.27%E -3.81%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.25%EV -4.71%E -1.78%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.44%EV -9.27%E -3.81%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.20%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 22:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -6.51%E -2.50%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -4.79%E -1.88%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 16:06
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.51%E -2.50%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 16:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 16:05
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 16:06
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 16:06
Betr (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -11.90%E -4.86%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.04%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 16:06
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -10.39%E -4.33%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 16:06
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.53%EV -14.42%E -6.06%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.64%EV -15.99%E -7.11%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.84%EV -6.54%E -1.87%K -2.61%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-25 16:13
Bovada🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.67%EV -6.87%E -2.65%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.55%EV -8.15%E -3.31%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 16:12
BetUS🎯2.59I 38.61%NM 35.67%EV -6.87%E -2.65%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.55%EV -8.15%E -3.31%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.78%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-25 16:13
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.62%EV -11.90%E -4.86%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -10.39%E -4.33%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -7.87%E -2.28%K -3.21%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-25 16:06
1xBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.31%E -3.26%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.13%EV -7.40%E -2.98%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.77%EV -8.14%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-20 16:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -8.31%E -3.26%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.13%EV -7.40%E -2.98%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 26.77%EV -8.14%E -2.37%K -3.34%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-20 15:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -5.07%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.73%EV -4.41%E -1.72%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 16:06
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.62%EV -5.07%E -1.92%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 36.73%EV -4.41%E -1.72%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 16:13
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -2.92%E -1.08%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-25 16:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.99%EV -8.31%E -3.26%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.01%EV -7.40%E -2.98%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 16:06
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -8.31%E -3.26%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 16:06
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.78%EV -13.70%E -5.71%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.56%EV -4.79%E -1.88%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.67%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-25 16:06
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -6.51%E -2.50%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -12.25%E -5.21%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-24 22:00
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.16%EV -8.31%E -3.26%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.48%EV -13.00%E -5.58%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 22:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -11.51%E -4.85%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 16:15
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -11.51%E -4.85%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-25 16:15
Bet Right🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -13.70%E -5.71%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-25 16:06
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -13.70%E -5.71%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.96%EV -10.39%E -4.33%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -9.21%E -2.71%K -3.84%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-25 16:06
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.24%EV -6.51%E -2.50%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.40%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.35%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-25 16:13
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -8.31%E -3.26%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.63%EV -10.39%E -4.33%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 16:13
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.30%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.36%EV -14.12%E -6.14%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.34%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.30%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.36%EV -14.12%E -6.14%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.34%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 22:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.30%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.36%EV -14.12%E -6.14%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.34%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.30%EV -10.11%E -4.04%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.36%EV -14.12%E -6.14%K -10.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.34%EV -10.54%E -3.15%K -4.49%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-24 22:00
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -5.79%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 16:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -5.79%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 16:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -5.79%E -2.21%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.88%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.94%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 16:00
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -6.51%E -2.50%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-25 16:02
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -6.51%E -2.50%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.39%E -4.33%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 16:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -6.51%E -2.50%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.39%E -4.33%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-25 16:16
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.91%EV -11.90%E -4.86%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.43%EV -12.25%E -5.21%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.66%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-25 16:13
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.01%EV -11.90%E -4.86%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.99%EV -17.85%E -8.12%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.99%EV -11.88%E -3.60%K -5.16%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-25 16:13
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.73%EV -11.90%E -4.86%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 37.57%EV -13.00%E -5.58%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.69%EV -12.41%E -3.78%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-25 16:13
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -6.51%E -2.50%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -10.39%E -4.33%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -14.55%E -4.55%K -6.61%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-25 16:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.94%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.87%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.19%0.8%2026-10-25 16:14
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.64%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%1.0%2026-10-25 16:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.81%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.46%1.2%2026-10-25 16:14
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.81%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.46%1.2%2026-10-25 16:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.81%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.73%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.46%1.2%2026-10-25 16:14
Smarkets◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.71%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.91%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.38%1.5%2026-10-25 16:15