L’École des cotes

Lechia Gdańsk v Raków Częstochowa

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-25 15:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

49 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Lechia Gdańsk (Local)

Prévision 36.96%2.71cote équitable
EV -0.195%
Avantage -0.072%
Kelly -0.115%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.70

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
34.79%36.86%36.95%37.64%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.302.522.502.7043.48%39.76%40.00%37.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Raków Częstochowa (Visiteur)

Prévision 36.18%2.76cote équitable
EV -3.39%
Avantage -1.27%
Kelly -2.03%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.67

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
35.39%36.27%36.26%37.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.352.492.482.6742.55%40.12%40.32%37.45%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 26.85%3.72cote équitable
EV -3.33%
Avantage -0.925%
Kelly -1.28%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.60

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
25.53%26.88%26.79%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.003.383.403.6033.33%29.59%29.41%27.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (49 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
Unibet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -0.195%E -0.072%K -0.115%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -9.54%E -3.82%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 15:40
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -0.195%E -0.072%K -0.115%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -9.54%E -3.82%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 15:39
Unibet (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -0.195%E -0.072%K -0.115%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -9.54%E -3.82%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 15:39
ATG (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -0.195%E -0.072%K -0.115%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -9.54%E -3.82%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 15:45
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -2.04%E -0.771%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -10.27%E -4.14%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 15:40
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -2.04%E -0.771%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -10.27%E -4.14%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 15:40
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -2.04%E -0.771%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -10.27%E -4.14%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 15:40
Svenska Spel2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -2.04%E -0.771%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -10.27%E -4.14%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 15:45
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 35.11%EV -2.04%E -0.771%K -1.24%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -10.27%E -4.14%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-18 15:45
TABtouch2.63I 38.02%NM 34.98%EV -2.78%E -1.06%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -11.35%E -4.63%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -10.04%E -3.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-18 15:40
Coolbet2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.73%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -3.33%E -0.925%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 02:49
FanDuel2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -9.54%E -3.82%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -3.33%E -0.925%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-23 15:32
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.44%EV -12.08%E -4.97%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 15:40
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -3.89%E -1.50%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.44%EV -12.08%E -4.97%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 15:40
Pinnacle2.55I 39.22%NM 37.18%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.50%EV -3.39%E -1.27%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.32%EV -6.82%E -1.97%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-21 09:05
DraftKings2.55I 39.22%NM 36.62%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.92%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-22 15:30
Tipico (DE)2.55I 39.22%NM 36.10%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.82%EV -9.54%E -3.82%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-22 09:19
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 35.12%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.32%EV -13.16%E -5.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.56%EV -12.73%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-18 15:40
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 35.01%EV -5.74%E -2.25%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.51%EV -13.89%E -5.83%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -12.73%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-18 15:40
LowVig.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -6.85%E -2.72%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -5.20%E -1.99%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -10.04%E -3.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 11:25
BetOnline.ag2.52I 39.68%NM 36.85%EV -6.85%E -2.72%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.44%EV -5.20%E -1.99%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.72%EV -10.04%E -3.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-23 11:24
Unibet (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.73%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.01%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 00:09
BetMGM2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.38%EV -7.73%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.01%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-21 13:13
1xBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 35.80%EV -6.29%E -2.43%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.11%EV -8.16%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 08:29
Marathon Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 35.80%EV -6.29%E -2.43%K -3.95%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.11%EV -8.16%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-22 08:25
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.08%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.65%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-21 19:40
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -9.54%E -3.82%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-23 02:50
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -13.16%E -5.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -6.01%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-21 14:49
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -13.16%E -5.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -6.01%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-21 14:49
PMU (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 35.15%EV -7.59%E -3.04%K -5.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.39%EV -14.97%E -6.37%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.46%EV -14.07%E -4.40%K -6.40%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-18 15:40
Bovada2.49I 40.16%NM 37.02%EV -7.96%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -10.04%E -3.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-21 09:08
BetUS2.49I 40.16%NM 37.02%EV -7.96%E -3.20%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.46%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.52%EV -10.04%E -3.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-22 23:05
NordicBet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.14%EV -8.33%E -3.36%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.55%EV -8.82%E -3.50%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.01%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 00:09
Betsson2.48I 40.32%NM 37.14%EV -8.33%E -3.36%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.55%EV -8.82%E -3.50%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.01%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-21 00:10
Fanatics2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -9.44%E -3.85%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -5.93%E -2.28%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-22 20:15
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 37.29%EV -9.44%E -3.85%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.83%EV -7.73%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-21 14:49
PlayUp2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -9.44%E -3.85%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -7.73%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -12.73%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-22 15:34
Sky Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -9.44%E -3.85%K -6.51%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -13.89%E -5.83%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-22 15:34
Codere (IT)2.43I 41.15%NM 37.06%EV -10.18%E -4.19%K -7.12%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 36.46%EV -10.63%E -4.30%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -8.70%E -2.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-21 00:15
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -11.28%E -4.70%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.23%EV -13.16%E -5.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -6.01%E -1.72%K -2.41%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 06:19
Bet Right2.40I 41.67%NM 37.09%EV -11.28%E -4.70%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -11.35%E -4.63%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -10.04%E -3.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-24 02:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -11.28%E -4.70%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -11.35%E -4.63%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-21 13:14
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -11.28%E -4.70%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -11.35%E -4.63%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -11.39%E -3.45%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-21 13:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -11.28%E -4.70%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -13.16%E -5.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -19.44%E -6.48%K -9.72%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-22 15:35
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 36.71%EV -12.02%E -5.05%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.41%EV -13.16%E -5.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.88%EV -12.73%E -3.92%K -5.66%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-20 17:14
Betclic (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.64%EV -13.13%E -5.59%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.11%EV -11.35%E -4.63%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.25%EV -9.51%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 15:33
Unibet (FR)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.58%EV -13.13%E -5.59%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.05%EV -11.35%E -4.63%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -10.04%E -3.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 15:34
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 37.15%EV -14.24%E -6.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.91%EV -13.16%E -5.48%K -9.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.93%EV -14.07%E -4.40%K -6.40%G +0.000%16.0%2026-04-23 17:33
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.52%EV -14.98%E -6.51%K -11.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.72%EV -14.97%E -6.37%K -11.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.76%EV -10.04%E -3.00%K -4.27%G +0.000%15.9%2026-04-23 06:20
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 38.17%2.56I 39.06%NM 35.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.33%10.1%2026-04-24 00:40
Smarkets2.42I 41.32%NM 36.95%2.46I 40.65%NM 36.35%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.69%11.8%2026-04-23 15:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.09I 91.74%NM 53.38%2.60I 38.46%NM 22.38%2.40I 41.67%NM 24.24%71.9%2026-04-23 23:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.09I 91.74%NM 53.38%2.60I 38.46%NM 22.38%2.40I 41.67%NM 24.24%71.9%2026-04-23 23:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 54.55%2.60I 38.46%NM 21.82%2.40I 41.67%NM 23.64%76.3%2026-04-23 23:14