Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

GKS Katowice v Radomiak Radom

Inicio: 2026-08-02 18:15 UTC

Final: GKS Katowice 3–1 Radomiak Radom

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

GKS Katowice (Local)

Predicción 46.96%2.13momio equitativo
EV -5.13%
Ventaja -2.54%
Kelly -5.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.02

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.64%47.08%47.00%50.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.741.921.952.0257.47%52.01%51.28%49.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Radomiak Radom (Visitante)

Predicción 26.38%3.79momio equitativo
EV +1.58%
Ventaja +0.410%
Kelly +0.554%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.13%26.36%26.31%27.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.543.503.8531.25%28.28%28.57%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.65%3.75momio equitativo
EV -0.059%
Ventaja -0.016%
Kelly -0.021%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.78%26.55%26.69%27.83%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.253.503.503.7530.77%28.61%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: GKS Katowice (Local): 46.96%; Radomiak Radom (Visitante): 26.38%; Empate: 26.65%. Para Radomiak Radom (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.79. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.85, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.58%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.76%EV -14.05%E -7.68%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.13%EV +1.58%E +0.410%K +0.554%G +0.009%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -1.39%E -0.376%K -0.515%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-28 21:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -13.12%E -7.09%K -15.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV +0.260%E +0.068%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.021%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 18:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -13.12%E -7.09%K -15.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV +0.260%E +0.068%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.021%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 18:10
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -13.12%E -7.09%K -15.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV +0.260%E +0.068%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.021%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 18:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -13.12%E -7.09%K -15.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV +0.260%E +0.068%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.021%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 18:10
Grosvenor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -14.05%E -7.68%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV +0.260%E +0.068%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.021%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 18:10
Casumo🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -14.05%E -7.68%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV +0.260%E +0.068%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.021%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 18:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -14.05%E -7.68%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV +0.260%E +0.068%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.021%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 18:09
betPARX🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -14.05%E -7.68%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV +0.260%E +0.068%K +0.093%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.021%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-02 18:10
Pinnacle🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 47.81%EV -5.60%E -2.79%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.49%EV -0.532%E -0.141%K -0.192%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.70%EV -4.06%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-02 18:05
TABtouch🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.58%EV -14.52%E -7.98%K -17.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -1.06%E -0.282%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -1.39%E -0.376%K -0.515%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 18:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -15.46%E -8.59%K -19.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -1.06%E -0.282%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -2.72%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 18:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -15.46%E -8.59%K -19.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -1.06%E -0.282%K -0.385%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -2.72%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 18:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.59%EV -5.13%E -2.54%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.70%EV -1.32%E -0.354%K -0.483%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.70%EV -4.06%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-02 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.59%EV -5.13%E -2.54%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.70%EV -1.32%E -0.354%K -0.483%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.70%EV -4.06%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-02 17:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.76%EV -16.87%E -9.53%K -21.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.28%EV -2.38%E -0.643%K -0.881%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -4.06%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-02 18:10
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -5.02%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.06%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 15:39
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.01%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.02%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.67%EV -18.28%E -10.51%K -24.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.49%EV -5.02%E -1.39%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.84%EV -5.39%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-02 18:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.27%EV -7.95%E -4.06%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.88%EV -5.54%E -1.55%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.85%EV -8.05%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-02 17:50
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.02%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -6.34%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.49%EV -5.39%E -1.52%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-02 18:10
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -6.34%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 18:10
Bovada🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.98%EV -7.95%E -4.06%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.94%EV -6.34%E -1.78%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-02 18:09
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.97%EV -5.13%E -2.54%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.03%EV -7.39%E -2.11%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.00%EV -2.72%E -0.746%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-02 18:10
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 16:44
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 13:30
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 15:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 15:34
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-02 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -9.36%E -4.85%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 17:55
SportsBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.81%EV -7.95%E -4.06%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.21%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 17:50
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 15:40
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 18:03
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.66%E -2.19%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 18:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 16:40
Betsson🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.13%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -8.05%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 16:40
NordicBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.13%EV -6.07%E -3.04%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.13%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -8.05%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 16:39
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 15:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.58%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 15:35
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.82%EV -7.01%E -3.54%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-02 18:10
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -10.30%E -5.39%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 17:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -10.30%E -5.39%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -10.29%E -3.03%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-02 18:00
Codere (IT)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.07%EV -6.54%E -3.29%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.36%EV -11.61%E -3.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.57%EV -8.05%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 16:40
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 47.04%EV -10.77%E -5.67%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.68%EV -11.61%E -3.47%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -9.39%E -2.76%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-02 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.27%EV -10.30%E -5.39%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 26.54%EV -12.14%E -3.65%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.19%EV -13.38%E -4.12%K -5.95%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-02 18:08
Winamax (DE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.43%EV -7.95%E -4.06%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -12.93%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 16:40
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -12.93%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -13.38%E -4.12%K -5.95%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-02 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.64%EV -8.42%E -4.32%K -8.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -12.93%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.39%EV -13.38%E -4.12%K -5.95%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-02 16:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.48%EV -10.77%E -5.67%K -11.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.76%EV -12.93%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.76%EV -12.05%E -3.65%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-02 17:50
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -10.30%E -5.39%K -11.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -12.93%E -3.92%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -13.38%E -4.12%K -5.95%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-02 17:50
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.94%EV -14.05%E -7.68%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.99%EV -14.25%E -4.39%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.07%EV -6.72%E -1.92%K -2.69%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 15:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 46.76%EV -13.12%E -7.09%K -15.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.62%EV -14.25%E -4.39%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.62%EV -13.38%E -4.12%K -5.95%G +0.000%15.6%2026-08-02 17:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.11%EV -8.89%E -4.58%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -15.57%E -4.87%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -8.05%E -2.33%K -3.29%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-02 16:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.08I 48.08%NM 47.89%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.54%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.56%0.4%2026-08-02 18:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-08-02 18:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-08-02 18:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.08I 48.08%NM 47.73%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.79%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-08-02 18:10
Smarkets2.08I 48.08%NM 47.56%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-02 18:10
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 48.05%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-08-02 18:05