Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tromso v Vålerenga

Kickoff: 2026-07-11 16:00 UTC

Final: Tromso 4–0 Vålerenga

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tromso (Local)

Prediction 54.71%1.83fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -4.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.11%54.66%54.79%56.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.681.681.7663.69%59.38%59.52%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vålerenga (Visit)

Prediction 20.60%4.85fair odd
EV +0.940%
Edge +0.192%
Kelly +0.241%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.33%20.62%20.69%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.484.504.9025.00%22.34%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.69%4.05fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.314%
Kelly -0.419%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.22%24.72%24.52%26.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.713.754.0028.57%26.93%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tromso (Local): 54.71%; Vålerenga (Visit): 20.60%; Draw: 24.69%. For Vålerenga (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.940%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.20%EV -4.25%E -2.43%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.71%EV +0.940%E +0.192%K +0.241%G +0.002%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.09%EV -4.96%E -1.29%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.5%2026-07-11 15:55
FanDuel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -1.12%E -0.233%K -0.295%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-11 15:50
Coolbet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.11%EV -3.70%E -2.10%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.64%EV -3.18%E -0.677%K -0.859%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.25%EV -1.26%E -0.314%K -0.419%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-11 06:35
BetUS🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.52%EV -4.80%E -2.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.18%EV -3.18%E -0.677%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-11 15:34
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.66%EV -5.34%E -3.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -3.18%E -0.677%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 15:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.66%EV -5.34%E -3.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -3.18%E -0.677%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 15:34
BetAnything🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.66%EV -5.34%E -3.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.12%EV -3.18%E -0.677%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 15:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.20%EV -7.53%E -4.46%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.85%EV -3.18%E -0.677%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.95%EV -7.67%E -2.05%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-11 15:35
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.65%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.54%EV -3.18%E -0.677%K -0.859%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-11 15:05
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -4.25%E -2.43%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.35%EV -4.21%E -0.905%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 15:34
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.07%EV -4.25%E -2.43%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.35%EV -4.21%E -0.905%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.58%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-11 15:35
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.24%EV -6.44%E -3.77%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -3.72%E -0.955%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-11 15:24
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.33%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 20:10
SportsBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -9.17%E -5.53%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.94%EV -5.24%E -1.14%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.79%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-11 15:44
1xBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.72%EV -4.80%E -2.76%K -6.48%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.74%EV -5.45%E -1.19%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.54%EV -4.22%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-11 15:54
GTbets🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.91%EV -4.25%E -2.43%K -5.67%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -6.27%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.36%EV -8.17%E -2.20%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 03:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.34%E -3.09%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-11 11:34
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.47%EV -6.44%E -3.77%K -9.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-11 13:30
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.20%EV -9.17%E -5.53%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-10 20:10
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -7.53%E -4.46%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.36%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.2%2026-07-11 15:24
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.66%EV -6.99%E -4.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.27%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -13.60%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-11 15:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -10.27%E -6.26%K -16.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-10 20:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.50%EV -10.27%E -6.26%K -16.05%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-10 20:10
Everygame🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.50%EV -8.63%E -5.17%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-11 15:35
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-11 14:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.79%EV -9.72%E -5.89%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -7.30%E -1.62%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-07-11 15:50
Bovada🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.65%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -9.36%E -2.13%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-11 15:24
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.80%EV -8.63%E -5.17%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.80%EV -9.36%E -2.13%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-11 14:58
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.91%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.58%EV -9.36%E -2.13%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -12.36%E -3.48%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-11 15:35
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -6.99%E -4.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -10.39%E -2.39%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.66%E -2.34%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-11 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.86%EV -10.27%E -6.26%K -16.05%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.68%EV -10.39%E -2.39%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.45%EV -9.16%E -2.49%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-11 15:34
PMU (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.65%EV -14.10%E -8.98%K -24.74%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.08%EV -10.39%E -2.39%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.27%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-10 20:10
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.99%E -4.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -10.80%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-11 13:30
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.44%EV -11.36%E -7.01%K -18.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.37%EV -10.80%E -2.49%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -13.60%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%13.4%2026-07-11 15:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.69%EV -7.53%E -4.46%K -10.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.10%EV -11.42%E -2.66%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.21%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-11 11:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.84%EV -5.89%E -3.43%K -8.18%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.79%EV -12.45%E -2.93%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -6.19%E -1.63%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-11 00:44
betfred_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.82%EV -6.99%E -4.11%K -9.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.78%EV -13.48%E -3.21%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-11 00:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.11%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -13.48%E -3.21%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.43%E -1.98%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-11 11:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -8.63%E -5.17%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.48%E -3.21%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-11 13:30
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -8.63%E -5.17%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.48%E -3.21%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-11 13:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -8.63%E -5.17%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.48%E -3.21%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-11 13:29
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.72%EV -8.63%E -5.17%K -12.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -13.48%E -3.21%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.92%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-11 13:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.81%EV -10.82%E -6.64%K -17.17%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.13%EV -14.51%E -3.50%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -13.60%E -3.89%K -5.44%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-11 15:34
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.11%EV -8.08%E -4.81%K -11.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.76%EV -15.54%E -3.79%K -5.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -12.36%E -3.48%K -4.85%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-11 13:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.60%EV -10.27%E -6.26%K -16.05%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%EV -17.60%E -4.40%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%13.8%2026-07-11 11:34
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.91%EV -11.36%E -7.01%K -18.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.83%EV -17.60%E -4.40%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.26%EV -11.13%E -3.09%K -4.28%G +0.000%14.5%2026-07-11 07:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-07-11 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-07-11 15:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-07-11 15:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-07-11 15:39
Matchbook1.76I 56.82%NM 56.36%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.45%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-07-11 15:40

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.