Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tromso v Sarpsborg FK

Inicio: 2026-08-30 15:00 UTC

Final: Tromso 0–0 Sarpsborg FK

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Tromso (Local)

Predicción 52.93%1.89momio equitativo
EV -2.09%
Ventaja -1.13%
Kelly -2.46%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
51.29%52.99%52.97%55.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.631.731.731.8561.35%57.72%57.80%54.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visitante)

Predicción 22.55%4.43momio equitativo
EV +7.35%
Ventaja +1.54%
Kelly +1.95%
Crecimiento +0.144%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.76

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.00%22.50%22.55%23.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.124.104.7626.67%24.29%24.39%21.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.52%4.08momio equitativo
EV -0.687%
Ventaja -0.170%
Kelly -0.225%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.03%24.51%24.49%26.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.763.804.0528.57%26.56%26.32%24.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Tromso (Local): 52.93%; Sarpsborg FK (Visitante): 22.55%; Empate: 24.52%. Para Sarpsborg FK (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.43. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.76, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +7.35%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.02%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.00%EV +7.35%E +1.54%K +1.95%G +0.144%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.98%EV -6.57%E -1.72%K -2.34%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-30 14:55
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.90%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.76%EV +0.359%E +0.081%K +0.104%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.34%EV -6.33%E -1.66%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-30 14:55
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.48%EV -2.09%E -1.13%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.97%EV -0.318%E -0.072%K -0.093%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.55%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-30 13:55
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 14:49
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.25%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.62%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.13%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 14:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -9.50%E -5.55%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -3.14%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -9.50%E -5.55%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -3.14%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -9.50%E -5.55%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -3.14%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -9.50%E -5.55%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -3.14%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -9.50%E -5.55%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -3.14%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -9.50%E -5.55%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -3.14%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -9.50%E -5.55%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -3.14%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -9.50%E -5.55%K -13.38%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.53%EV -1.90%E -0.436%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.71%EV -3.14%E -0.795%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.92%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.02%EV -3.93%E -0.922%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -4.37%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 13:50
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.57%EV -4.73%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 13:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.26%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.26%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:55
BetAnything🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.26%EV -4.20%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.52%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -5.79%E -3.25%K -7.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-30 13:55
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 14:55
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.99%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-30 14:45
FanDuel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.41%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.13%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-30 14:43
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -12.14%E -7.32%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 14:25
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.58%EV -12.14%E -7.32%K -18.40%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.57%EV -5.28%E -1.26%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 14:25
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.70%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.53%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:54
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.22%EV -8.97%E -5.21%K -12.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.53%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.03%EV -0.687%E -0.170%K -0.225%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:55
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.46%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.69%EV -7.53%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -4.37%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-30 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.04%EV -10.03%E -5.90%K -14.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.41%EV -7.53%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -4.37%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-30 14:30
TABtouch🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.43%EV -13.20%E -8.05%K -20.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.77%EV -7.53%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.80%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-30 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.40%EV -13.73%E -8.42%K -21.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -7.53%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -9.27%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 13:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.40%EV -13.73%E -8.42%K -21.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -7.53%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -9.27%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 13:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.40%EV -13.73%E -8.42%K -21.80%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.63%EV -7.53%E -1.84%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -9.27%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 13:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -4.37%E -1.12%K -1.51%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 13:45
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 13:25
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 14:55
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 14:54
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 14:55
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -8.04%E -2.14%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 13:45
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.49%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -9.27%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-30 14:40
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 14:55
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.80%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.54%EV -12.95%E -3.65%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 14:45
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-30 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -9.79%E -2.45%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -9.27%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 14:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.02%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.05%EV -10.92%E -2.76%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.94%EV -10.50%E -2.88%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-30 13:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.52%EV -7.91%E -4.55%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -12.05%E -3.09%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -6.82%E -1.79%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.15%EV -8.97%E -5.21%K -12.46%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -14.30%E -3.76%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.24%EV -9.27%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 13:55
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -14.30%E -3.76%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 13:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -14.30%E -3.76%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 13:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -14.30%E -3.76%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 13:20
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -14.30%E -3.76%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -11.72%E -3.26%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 13:20
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.29%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.35%EV -14.30%E -3.76%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.35%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 14:40
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.13%EV -9.50%E -5.55%K -13.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -15.43%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -9.27%E -2.51%K -3.43%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-30 13:45
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 52.02%EV -11.61%E -6.95%K -17.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.16%EV -15.43%E -4.11%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -14.17%E -4.05%K -5.67%G +0.000%15.1%2026-08-30 13:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.83%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.01%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.16%1.0%2026-08-30 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.6%2026-08-30 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.6%2026-08-30 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 53.51%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.88%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%1.6%2026-08-30 14:55
Smarkets◎1.83I 54.64%NM 53.38%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.20%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.42%2.4%2026-08-30 14:55