Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sandefjord v Sarpsborg FK

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sandefjord (Local)

Prediction 45.14%2.22fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.25%45.15%45.14%46.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.032.042.1554.05%49.29%49.02%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visit)

Prediction 30.66%3.26fair odd
EV -3.10%
Edge -0.982%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.34%30.60%30.64%31.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.013.003.1637.04%33.17%33.33%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.19%4.13fair odd
EV -0.811%
Edge -0.198%
Kelly -0.262%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.28%24.25%24.22%26.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.793.804.1031.25%26.41%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sandefjord (Local): 45.14%; Sarpsborg FK (Visit): 30.66%; Draw: 24.19%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.10, with an expected value of -0.811%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.13%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.20%EV -4.64%E -1.49%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -0.811%E -0.198%K -0.262%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-22 15:29
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.03%EV -2.94%E -1.37%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.64%EV -3.10%E -0.982%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.33%EV -3.71%E -0.933%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-22 15:55
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -4.29%E -2.03%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -10.49%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 15:45
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -4.29%E -2.03%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -3.41%E -1.08%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -10.49%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 15:45
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -5.20%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.67%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.07%EV -4.44%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-22 15:55
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.13%EV -5.20%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-22 15:40
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.67%EV -5.20%E -2.47%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 15:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.79%EV -5.65%E -2.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.29%EV -3.10%E -0.982%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.93%EV -3.23%E -0.807%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-22 15:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.79%EV -5.65%E -2.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.29%EV -3.10%E -0.982%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.93%EV -3.23%E -0.807%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-22 15:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.14%EV -6.10%E -2.93%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.78%EV -6.48%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-22 04:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.03%EV -6.55%E -3.16%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -6.48%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.40%EV -7.58%E -1.99%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 15:45
GTbets🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.16%EV -4.02%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.78%EV -3.96%E -0.996%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-18 07:50
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.29%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.95%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -9.28%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-22 15:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.27%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.93%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-21 09:20
BetMGM🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -10.49%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 15:34
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.07%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 04:20
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.99%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -8.07%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 15:55
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -9.28%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 15:49
BetUS🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -9.28%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 15:48
BetAnything🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -9.28%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 15:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.10%EV -9.54%E -3.24%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.14%EV -8.07%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-22 15:20
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -10.49%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:34
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.69%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.54%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -10.49%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 15:49
Everygame🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -7.45%E -3.64%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.00%EV -9.54%E -3.24%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -9.28%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 15:35
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.91%E -3.88%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.44%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 09:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.91%E -3.88%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.44%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 08:59
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.91%E -3.88%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.44%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 09:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.91%E -3.88%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.44%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 09:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.91%E -3.88%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.44%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 08:59
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.91%E -3.88%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.44%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 09:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.91%E -3.88%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.44%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 09:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.99%EV -7.91%E -3.88%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -4.94%E -1.59%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -4.44%E -1.12%K -1.50%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 09:00
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -8.81%E -4.36%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -6.48%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-22 09:00
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -8.81%E -4.36%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -6.48%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.76%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-22 09:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.98%EV -8.81%E -4.36%K -8.64%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -9.54%E -3.24%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -9.28%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 04:09
PlayUp🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.75%EV -8.81%E -4.36%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.11%EV -12.91%E -3.59%K -4.96%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-22 15:55
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.97%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.15%EV -6.48%E -2.12%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -6.86%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-22 08:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.40%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.31%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -5.65%E -1.45%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 04:04
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.13%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.75%EV -8.07%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-22 15:30
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.89%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.17%EV -11.69%E -4.06%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.94%EV -9.28%E -2.47%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-22 15:45
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.33%E -4.38%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 15:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.33%E -4.38%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 15:35
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.33%E -4.38%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 15:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -15.33%E -4.38%K -6.13%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-22 15:34
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -9.71%E -4.86%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -11.69%E -4.06%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.69%EV -12.91%E -3.59%K -4.96%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-22 15:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.12%EV -11.07%E -5.62%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -6.86%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 08:59
LiveScore Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.12%EV -11.07%E -5.62%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.28%EV -8.01%E -2.67%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.60%EV -6.86%E -1.78%K -2.41%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 09:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 44.85%EV -11.52%E -5.88%K -12.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.39%EV -14.14%E -5.05%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.76%EV -10.49%E -2.83%K -3.88%G +0.000%13.8%2026-03-22 04:04
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.43%EV -11.97%E -6.14%K -12.60%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.50%EV -15.68%E -5.70%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.07%EV -12.91%E -3.59%K -4.96%G +0.000%15.4%2026-03-22 15:35
LeoVegas🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.12%EV -12.42%E -6.40%K -13.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.33%EV -9.54%E -3.24%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.55%EV -8.07%E -2.12%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.8%2026-03-22 08:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.25%EV -13.77%E -7.21%K -15.14%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.34%EV -11.69%E -4.06%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.41%EV -22.58%E -7.06%K -10.27%G +0.000%18.3%2026-03-22 15:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.33%EV -14.68%E -7.77%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 29.88%EV -10.16%E -3.47%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 23.79%EV -10.97%E -2.98%K -4.09%G +0.000%14.2%2026-03-22 15:32
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.09%EV -14.68%E -7.77%K -16.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.04%EV -11.08%E -3.82%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.87%EV -11.70%E -3.20%K -4.41%G +0.000%14.8%2026-03-22 15:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 45.02%EV -16.48%E -8.91%K -19.39%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.84%EV -17.21%E -6.37%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.14%EV -16.54%E -4.79%K -6.75%G +0.000%20.1%2026-03-22 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%1.5%2026-03-22 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%1.5%2026-03-22 15:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%1.5%2026-03-22 15:20
Matchbook2.18I 45.87%NM 45.19%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.78%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.03%1.5%2026-03-22 15:55
Smarkets2.16I 46.30%NM 44.93%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%3.0%2026-03-22 15:45