Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rosenborg v Sarpsborg FK

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 12:30 UTC

Final: Rosenborg 2–1 Sarpsborg FK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

54 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rosenborg (Local)

Prediction 41.14%2.43fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -2.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.35%41.18%41.10%42.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.232.252.3647.62%44.87%44.44%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visit)

Prediction 32.19%3.11fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.23%32.21%32.18%33.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.842.853.0137.74%35.17%35.09%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.67%3.75fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.723%
Kelly -0.996%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%26.61%26.71%27.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.433.403.6532.26%29.18%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rosenborg (Local): 41.14%; Sarpsborg FK (Visit): 32.19%; Draw: 26.67%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.65, with an expected value of -2.64%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.14%EV -2.91%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.26%EV -3.12%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.60%EV -2.64%E -0.723%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-12 12:00
Pinnacle🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.18%EV -3.32%E -1.41%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.15%EV -3.12%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.66%EV -3.17%E -0.874%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-12 11:30
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.00%EV -4.14%E -1.78%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.17%EV -4.41%E -1.49%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.83%EV -5.04%E -1.42%K -1.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-12 12:00
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.19%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.12%EV -5.05%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -5.31%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-12 11:00
Betsson🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -5.05%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 11:30
NordicBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -5.05%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-12 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-12 11:30
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.38%E -2.34%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-12 12:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.07%EV -6.61%E -2.91%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.79%EV -7.17%E -2.06%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-12 12:00
GTbets🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 41.65%EV -7.02%E -3.11%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -3.44%E -1.15%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 26.97%EV -6.91%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-12 05:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.75%EV -7.02%E -3.11%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.75%EV -7.02%E -3.11%K -5.57%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 11:00
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.57%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -5.05%E -1.71%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.72%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-12 11:28
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-12 12:00
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 12:01
BetAnything🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.33%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -7.97%E -2.31%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 12:00
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:01
TABtouch🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:00
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Grosvenor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:00
betPARX🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:01
ATG (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-12 12:01
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -7.43%E -3.30%K -5.95%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 12:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -8.26%E -3.70%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 12:01
LiveScore Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -8.26%E -3.70%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 40.89%EV -8.67%E -3.90%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.42%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.70%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-12 11:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -3.97%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-12 10:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-12 11:29
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-12 10:58
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.43%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.76%EV -7.63%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 11:30
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-12 10:59
Everygame🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.34%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.91%EV -8.27%E -2.90%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-12 10:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -11.49%E -4.18%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -6.64%E -1.90%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 11:30
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.11%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.60%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-12 11:29
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.94%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.17%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-12 12:00
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -13.10%E -4.85%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -13.10%E -4.85%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 12:01
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -13.10%E -4.85%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -13.10%E -4.85%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-12 12:00
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -9.49%E -4.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -11.49%E -4.18%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-12 11:30
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.61%EV -11.55%E -5.37%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.59%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -5.31%E -1.49%K -2.08%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-12 10:00
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -11.55%E -5.37%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -6.66%E -2.30%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-12 12:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -11.55%E -5.37%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.13%EV -11.49%E -4.18%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.77%EV -11.97%E -3.63%K -5.21%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-12 12:00
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.76%EV -11.55%E -5.37%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.07%EV -14.71%E -5.55%K -8.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.16%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-12 11:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 41.83%EV -12.37%E -5.81%K -10.95%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.82%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.36%EV -9.84%E -2.91%K -4.13%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-12 11:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.07%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.55%EV -9.88%E -3.53%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -10.64%E -3.18%K -4.53%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-12 11:30
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.75%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.47%EV -13.10%E -4.85%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.78%EV -9.31%E -2.74%K -3.88%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-12 10:58
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.73%EV -13.60%E -6.48%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.68%EV -13.10%E -4.85%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.59%EV -17.31%E -5.58%K -8.24%G +0.000%16.9%2026-04-12 11:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.36I 42.37%NM 41.83%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.33%1.3%2026-04-12 12:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-04-12 12:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-04-12 12:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.48%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.68%1.3%2026-04-12 12:01
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 41.88%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.86%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.26%2.9%2026-04-12 12:00