Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FK

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 14:00 UTC

Final: Kristiansund BK 0–0 Sarpsborg FK

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kristiansund BK (Local)

Prediction 32.06%3.12fair odd
EV -0.611%
Edge -0.197%
Kelly -0.291%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.73%31.92%32.09%33.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.912.903.1038.17%34.31%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sarpsborg FK (Visit)

Prediction 42.23%2.37fair odd
EV -2.88%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.42%42.38%42.19%44.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.152.3050.00%46.35%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.71%3.89fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.603%
Kelly -0.818%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.96%25.70%25.71%26.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.573.603.8029.41%28.05%27.78%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kristiansund BK (Local): 32.06%; Sarpsborg FK (Visit): 42.23%; Draw: 25.71%. For Kristiansund BK (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -0.611%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:20
Casumo3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:20
Unibet3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:24
BetRivers3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:20
Unibet (NL)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:20
Grosvenor3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:20
Unibet (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:20
ATG (SE)3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:20
Svenska Spel3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:20
betPARX3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:20
TABtouch3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -0.611%E -0.197%K -0.291%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.31%EV -12.17%E -5.85%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.96%EV -8.72%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-07-18 13:20
Virgin Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -2.21%E -0.726%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -13.01%E -6.32%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 13:20
LiveScore Bet3.05I 32.79%NM 29.83%EV -2.21%E -0.726%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.17%EV -13.01%E -6.32%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-18 13:20
Coolbet3.01I 33.22%NM 32.25%EV -3.50%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.21%EV -2.88%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.55%EV -2.29%E -0.603%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-18 13:40
1xBet3.01I 33.22%NM 31.59%EV -3.50%E -1.16%K -1.74%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.07%EV -4.57%E -2.02%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.34%EV -7.18%E -1.99%K -2.75%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-18 13:50
Unibet (UK)3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -3.82%E -1.27%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-18 13:35
Pinnacle2.99I 33.44%NM 32.35%EV -4.14%E -1.38%K -2.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 42.06%EV -2.88%E -1.25%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.59%EV -2.81%E -0.742%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-18 13:40
GTbets2.97I 33.67%NM 31.23%EV -4.78%E -1.61%K -2.43%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 42.35%EV -7.52%E -3.44%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.42%EV -9.75%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-18 13:40
BetOnline.ag2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -5.10%E -1.72%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.97%EV -4.57%E -2.02%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%EV -6.15%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 13:55
LowVig.ag2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -5.10%E -1.72%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.97%EV -4.57%E -2.02%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%EV -6.15%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 13:55
BetAnything2.96I 33.78%NM 32.04%EV -5.10%E -1.72%K -2.60%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.97%EV -4.57%E -2.02%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.99%EV -6.15%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 13:55
FanDuel2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -5.42%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -4.99%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -4.86%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 13:45
DraftKings2.95I 33.90%NM 32.17%EV -5.42%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.18%EV -4.99%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.65%EV -4.86%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 13:35
PMU (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 29.92%EV -5.42%E -1.84%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.13%EV -15.55%E -7.77%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.96%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.3%2026-07-18 13:20
Betsson2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -6.38%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.89%EV -4.99%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -6.15%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 13:45
NordicBet2.92I 34.25%NM 32.28%EV -6.38%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.89%EV -4.99%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -6.15%E -1.68%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 13:45
Marathon Bet2.92I 34.25%NM 31.92%EV -6.38%E -2.19%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.18%EV -6.68%E -3.02%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.89%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-18 13:40
Betway2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.7%2026-07-18 13:35
Tipico (DE)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-07-18 13:45
William Hill2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-18 13:35
Betclic (FR)2.90I 34.48%NM 31.08%EV -7.02%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.54%EV -12.59%E -6.08%K -11.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.39%EV -8.72%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.0%2026-07-18 13:34
BetMGM2.88I 34.72%NM 32.47%EV -7.66%E -2.66%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.99%E -2.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-18 13:55
PointsBet (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -4.86%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-18 13:35
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -8.72%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-18 13:44
BetUS2.85I 35.09%NM 32.28%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.81%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.91%EV -8.72%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-18 13:45
LeoVegas2.85I 35.09%NM 32.27%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.19%EV -7.95%E -3.65%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-18 13:55
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 32.16%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.66%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-07-18 13:40
SportsBet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.03%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.88%EV -7.95%E -3.65%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-18 13:45
Codere (IT)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.85%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.22%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.93%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.2%2026-07-18 13:35
Winamax (DE)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.76%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.10%EV -11.32%E -5.39%K -10.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-18 13:35
Unibet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 31.21%EV -8.63%E -3.03%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.38%EV -13.44%E -6.55%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.4%2026-07-18 13:34
betfred_uk2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-18 13:35
betano_uk2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-18 13:40
Bet Victor2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-18 13:39
Paddy Power2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-18 13:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-18 13:45
PlayUp2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-18 13:45
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -10.23%E -3.65%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.98%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.79%EV -10.01%E -2.86%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-18 13:40
Sky Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-18 13:45
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-18 13:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-18 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-18 13:35
Neds2.75I 36.36%NM 32.38%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.42%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -12.58%E -3.70%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.3%2026-07-18 13:35
Winamax (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -11.83%E -4.30%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.74%EV -13.44%E -6.55%K -12.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.40%EV -11.29%E -3.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%14.1%2026-07-18 13:35
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 33.15%EV -13.44%E -4.98%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.63%EV -9.21%E -4.29%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.21%EV -8.72%E -2.46%K -3.42%G +0.000%11.7%2026-07-18 13:35
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 32.92%EV -16.00%E -6.11%K -9.88%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.12%EV -15.55%E -7.77%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.96%EV -7.43%E -2.07%K -2.86%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-18 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-07-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-07-18 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-07-18 13:55
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.47%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-07-18 13:55
Smarkets3.10I 32.26%NM 31.83%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.54%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.63%1.3%2026-07-18 13:55