Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kristiansund BK v Molde

2026-08-09 17:15 UTC — Eliteserien - Norway

Resultado del partido

38 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Kristiansund BK (Local)

Predicción 21.66%4.62momio equitativo
EV +4.19%
Ventaja +0.870%
Kelly +1.10%
Crecimiento +0.046%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.76%21.85%21.72%24.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.554.003.904.8128.17%24.99%25.64%20.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Molde (Visitante)

Predicción 53.14%1.88momio equitativo
EV -0.622%
Ventaja -0.332%
Kelly -0.715%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.87

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
50.06%53.02%53.13%54.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.651.771.751.8760.61%56.45%57.14%53.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.20%3.97momio equitativo
EV +0.785%
Ventaja +0.196%
Kelly +0.262%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.26%25.14%25.14%25.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.383.683.704.0029.59%27.15%27.03%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Kristiansund BK (Local): 21.66%; Molde (Visitante): 53.14%; Empate: 25.20%. Para Kristiansund BK (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 4.62. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 4.81, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +4.19%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (38 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle4.81I 20.79%NM 19.76%EV +4.19%E +0.870%K +1.10%G +0.046%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.62%EV -7.53%E -4.33%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.62%EV -6.52%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-02 18:50
LowVig.ag4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -0.363%E -0.079%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -7.53%E -4.33%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:14
BetOnline.ag4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -0.363%E -0.079%K -0.101%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.72%EV -7.53%E -4.33%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-02 20:15
1xBet4.50I 22.22%NM 21.22%EV -2.53%E -0.562%K -0.723%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -5.40%E -3.04%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.13%EV -4.25%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 17:55
Marathon Bet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -4.70%E -1.07%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.67%EV -7.53%E -4.33%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.10%EV -6.27%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-02 17:55
NordicBet4.35I 22.99%NM 21.70%EV -5.78%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.44%EV -4.34%E -2.41%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 17:55
Betsson4.35I 22.99%NM 21.70%EV -5.78%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.44%EV -4.34%E -2.41%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 17:50
Betway4.33I 23.09%NM 21.05%EV -6.21%E -1.43%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.62%EV -9.66%E -5.68%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.32%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-02 18:05
Unibet (UK)4.20I 23.81%NM 22.05%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.92%EV -7.00%E -4.00%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-02 17:55
Tipico (DE)4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 53.35%EV -8.59%E -5.00%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-02 20:05
Betclic (FR)4.20I 23.81%NM 20.89%EV -9.03%E -2.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 53.16%EV -12.31%E -7.46%K -18.94%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 25.95%EV -14.84%E -4.39%K -6.23%G +0.000%14.0%2026-08-02 17:59
Codere (IT)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.26%EV -11.19%E -2.73%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.74%EV -8.06%E -4.66%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.00%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-02 18:00
LeoVegas4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -11.19%E -2.73%K -3.61%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 52.89%EV -8.59%E -5.00%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 18:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -13.36%E -3.34%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -7.00%E -4.00%K -9.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV +0.785%E +0.196%K +0.262%G +0.002%7.1%2026-08-02 17:40
FanDuel4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -13.36%E -3.34%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -7.53%E -4.33%K -10.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV +0.785%E +0.196%K +0.262%G +0.002%7.5%2026-08-02 17:58
Fanatics4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -13.36%E -3.34%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.40%EV -5.94%E -3.35%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -4.25%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-02 17:44
SportsBet4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -13.36%E -3.34%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.30%EV -8.06%E -4.66%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.64%EV -1.73%E -0.445%K -0.598%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-02 17:39
betfred_uk4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -13.36%E -3.34%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -8.06%E -4.66%K -11.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.36%EV -5.51%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-02 17:40
William Hill3.90I 25.64%NM 23.50%EV -15.53%E -3.98%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.38%EV -7.00%E -4.00%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.25%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-02 17:49
Unibet (FR)3.90I 25.64%NM 22.47%EV -15.53%E -3.98%K -5.35%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 52.48%EV -11.25%E -6.74%K -16.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.04%EV -11.81%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-02 17:55
Unibet (NL)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -0.622%E -0.332%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 17:35
BetRivers3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -0.622%E -0.332%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 17:35
Unibet (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -0.622%E -0.332%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 17:35
LeoVegas (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -0.622%E -0.332%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 17:34
Casumo3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -0.622%E -0.332%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 17:35
Svenska Spel3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -0.622%E -0.332%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 17:35
ATG (SE)3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -0.622%E -0.332%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 17:35
betPARX3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -0.622%E -0.332%K -0.715%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 17:35
Paddy Power3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 52.78%EV -9.66%E -5.68%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -4.25%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-02 18:00
Winamax (DE)3.80I 26.32%NM 23.16%EV -17.69%E -4.66%K -6.32%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 52.39%EV -10.72%E -6.38%K -15.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.45%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-02 17:54
Grosvenor3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -18.77%E -5.01%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.17%EV -1.68%E -0.911%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 17:34
Unibet3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -18.77%E -5.01%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.17%EV -1.68%E -0.911%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.08%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-02 17:35
TABtouch3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -18.77%E -5.01%K -6.83%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -2.75%E -1.50%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.20%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-02 17:35
Virgin Bet3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -19.86%E -5.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.20%EV -3.81%E -2.11%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 17:35
LiveScore Bet3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -19.86%E -5.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.20%EV -3.81%E -2.11%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-02 17:34
Winamax (FR)3.70I 27.03%NM 23.41%EV -19.86%E -5.37%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 52.19%EV -11.78%E -7.10%K -17.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.40%EV -10.55%E -2.97%K -4.14%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-02 18:00
Sky Bet3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -22.02%E -6.12%K -8.47%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 51.52%EV -11.25%E -6.74%K -16.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -11.81%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-02 17:40
PMU (FR)3.55I 28.17%NM 24.73%EV -23.11%E -6.51%K -9.06%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.18%EV -7.00%E -4.00%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.09%EV -11.81%E -3.38%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-02 17:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets3.90I 25.64%NM 22.61%1.69I 59.17%NM 52.19%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%13.4%2026-08-02 18:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 18:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 18:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 18:00
Arbitraje (28 combinaciones) +0.74%Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%) / Unibet (NL) 1.87 (53.9%) / FanDuel 4.00 (25.2%)Ver las 28 combinaciones
Kristiansund BK (Local)Molde (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)Unibet (NL) 1.87 (53.9%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)Unibet (NL) 1.87 (53.9%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)BetRivers 1.87 (53.9%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)BetRivers 1.87 (53.9%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)Unibet (SE) 1.87 (53.9%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)Unibet (SE) 1.87 (53.9%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)LeoVegas (SE) 1.87 (53.9%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)LeoVegas (SE) 1.87 (53.9%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)Casumo 1.87 (53.9%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)Casumo 1.87 (53.9%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)Svenska Spel 1.87 (53.9%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)Svenska Spel 1.87 (53.9%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)ATG (SE) 1.87 (53.9%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)ATG (SE) 1.87 (53.9%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)betPARX 1.87 (53.9%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.9%)betPARX 1.87 (53.9%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.2%)+0.739%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)Grosvenor 1.85 (54.1%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.0%)+0.156%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)Grosvenor 1.85 (54.1%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.0%)+0.156%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)Unibet 1.85 (54.1%)Betfair Sportsbook (UK) 4.00 (25.0%)+0.156%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)Unibet 1.85 (54.1%)FanDuel 4.00 (25.0%)+0.156%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)Unibet (NL) 1.87 (53.5%)SportsBet 3.90 (25.7%)+0.093%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)BetRivers 1.87 (53.5%)SportsBet 3.90 (25.7%)+0.093%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)Unibet (SE) 1.87 (53.5%)SportsBet 3.90 (25.7%)+0.093%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)LeoVegas (SE) 1.87 (53.5%)SportsBet 3.90 (25.7%)+0.093%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)Casumo 1.87 (53.5%)SportsBet 3.90 (25.7%)+0.093%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)Svenska Spel 1.87 (53.5%)SportsBet 3.90 (25.7%)+0.093%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)ATG (SE) 1.87 (53.5%)SportsBet 3.90 (25.7%)+0.093%
Pinnacle 4.81 (20.8%)betPARX 1.87 (53.5%)SportsBet 3.90 (25.7%)+0.093%