Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fredrikstad FK v Bodø/Glimt

Inicio: 2026-09-04 17:00 UTC

Final: Fredrikstad FK 1–2 Bodø/Glimt

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (19 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Fredrikstad FK (Local)

Predicción 11.40%8.77momio equitativo
EV +11.69%
Ventaja +1.19%
Kelly +1.33%
Crecimiento +0.155%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.77%11.34%11.50%12.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
7.008.028.009.8014.29%12.48%12.50%10.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Bodø/Glimt (Visitante)

Predicción 72.56%1.38momio equitativo
EV -4.22%
Ventaja -3.20%
Kelly -13.18%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.32

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
69.93%72.50%72.43%74.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.241.281.291.3280.65%77.85%77.52%75.76%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 16.04%6.23momio equitativo
EV +1.06%
Ventaja +0.167%
Kelly +0.199%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.15%16.15%16.07%18.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.005.555.506.3020.00%18.03%18.18%15.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Fredrikstad FK (Local): 11.40%; Bodø/Glimt (Visitante): 72.56%; Empate: 16.04%. Para Fredrikstad FK (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.77. 5 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 9.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +11.69%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯9.80I 10.20%NM 9.91%EV +11.69%E +1.19%K +1.33%G +0.155%1.30I 76.92%NM 74.68%EV -5.67%E -4.36%K -18.90%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.41%EV +1.06%E +0.167%K +0.199%G +0.002%3.0%2026-09-04 13:40
Betsson🎯9.60I 10.42%NM 9.77%EV +9.42%E +0.981%K +1.09%G +0.103%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.18%EV -5.67%E -4.36%K -18.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV -16.59%E -3.19%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 14:19
NordicBet🎯9.60I 10.42%NM 9.77%EV +9.42%E +0.981%K +1.09%G +0.103%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.18%EV -5.67%E -4.36%K -18.90%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.05%EV -16.59%E -3.19%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 14:19
Tipico (DE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.23%EV +2.58%E +0.286%K +0.322%G +0.008%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.63%EV -9.30%E -7.44%K -37.19%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.15%EV -8.57%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-04 13:09
BetUS🎯8.79I 11.38%NM 10.86%EV +0.183%E +0.021%K +0.024%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.99%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.15%EV +1.06%E +0.167%K +0.199%G +0.002%4.8%2026-09-04 14:30
Pinnacle🎯8.77I 11.40%NM 10.88%EV -0.045%E -0.005%K -0.006%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.95%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%6.29I 15.90%NM 15.17%EV +0.895%E +0.142%K +0.169%G +0.002%4.8%2026-09-04 14:35
1xBet🎯8.75I 11.43%NM 10.92%EV -0.273%E -0.031%K -0.035%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.96%EV -4.94%E -3.77%K -15.95%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 16.12%EV -4.88%E -0.823%K -0.990%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 14:35
DraftKings🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 11.10%EV -3.12%E -0.367%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.17%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -3.76%E -0.626%K -0.751%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:30
Marathon Bet🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -3.12%E -0.367%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.82%EV -7.12%E -5.56%K -25.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -7.77%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 14:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV -3.12%E -0.367%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.82%EV -7.12%E -5.56%K -25.43%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -7.77%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 13:50
betano_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -3.12%E -0.367%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -9.30%E -7.44%K -37.19%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -7.77%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 12:49
Bet Victor🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -3.12%E -0.367%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 73.29%EV -9.30%E -7.44%K -37.19%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.93%EV -7.77%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 12:50
PlayUp🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -3.12%E -0.367%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 71.09%EV -7.12%E -5.56%K -25.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -19.80%E -3.96%K -4.95%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 14:20
betfred_uk🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -3.12%E -0.367%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -9.30%E -7.44%K -37.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -11.78%E -2.14%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 13:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.70%EV -3.12%E -0.367%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.76%EV -9.30%E -7.44%K -37.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -11.78%E -2.14%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 12:50
Betclic (FR)🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 11.24%EV -5.97%E -0.724%K -0.824%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 73.04%EV -7.85%E -6.18%K -29.06%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.72%EV -5.36%E -0.909%K -1.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 14:28
SportsBet🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 11.09%EV -5.97%E -0.724%K -0.824%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 72.58%EV -8.57%E -6.80%K -32.97%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.33%EV -10.17%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 12:45
GTbets🎯8.13I 12.30%NM 11.34%EV -7.34%E -0.903%K -1.03%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 72.04%EV -7.12%E -5.56%K -25.43%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.62%EV -10.98%E -1.98%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 13:14
Betway🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.66%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.62%EV -3.76%E -0.626%K -0.751%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 11:30
Unibet (UK)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -5.67%E -4.36%K -18.90%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -7.77%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 14:00
BetRivers🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -4.22%E -3.20%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -14.99%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 17:09
Casumo🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -4.22%E -3.20%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -14.99%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -4.22%E -3.20%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -14.99%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 17:09
Unibet (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -4.22%E -3.20%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -14.99%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 17:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -4.22%E -3.20%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -14.99%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 17:09
betPARX🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -4.22%E -3.20%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -14.99%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 17:09
ATG (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -4.22%E -3.20%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -14.99%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 17:09
Svenska Spel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.72%EV -4.22%E -3.20%K -13.18%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.61%EV -14.99%E -2.83%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-03 17:09
Bovada🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.77%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 14:35
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 72.78%EV -7.85%E -6.18%K -29.06%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV -5.36%E -0.909%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 11:35
Fanatics🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.78%E -2.14%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 13:40
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.64%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.80%EV -11.78%E -2.14%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Paddy Power🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.29%EV -8.82%E -1.10%K -1.26%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.28%EV -9.30%E -7.44%K -37.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -11.78%E -2.14%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-04 11:34
Unibet (FR)🎯7.90I 12.66%NM 11.42%EV -9.96%E -1.26%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 72.75%EV -10.02%E -8.08%K -41.76%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.83%EV -8.57%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-04 14:30
BetOnline.ag🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.04%EV -11.10%E -1.42%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.81%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.15%EV -0.549%E -0.089%K -0.106%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:30
LowVig.ag🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.04%EV -11.10%E -1.42%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.81%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.15%EV -0.549%E -0.089%K -0.106%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:30
BetAnything🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 12.04%EV -11.10%E -1.42%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.81%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.15%EV -0.549%E -0.089%K -0.106%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 14:30
BetMGM🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 12.10%EV -11.67%E -1.51%K -1.73%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.59%EV -4.94%E -3.77%K -15.95%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.31%EV -7.77%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 13:03
Codere (IT)🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 11.92%EV -13.38%E -1.76%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.31%EV -7.85%E -6.18%K -29.06%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.77%EV -13.38%E -2.48%K -3.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 14:35
LeoVegas🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.26%EV -14.52%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.72%EV -5.67%E -4.36%K -18.90%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.02%EV -13.38%E -2.48%K -3.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-04 14:30
Unibet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -14.52%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -5.67%E -4.36%K -18.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -18.19%E -3.57%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 17:10
Grosvenor🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -14.52%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -5.67%E -4.36%K -18.90%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -18.19%E -3.57%K -4.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-03 17:09
TABtouch🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.96%EV -14.52%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -7.12%E -5.56%K -25.43%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.94%EV -19.80%E -3.96%K -4.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-03 17:10
PMU (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -14.52%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -7.85%E -6.18%K -29.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -19.80%E -3.96%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-03 17:09
Virgin Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -14.52%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -7.85%E -6.18%K -29.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -19.80%E -3.96%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-03 17:09
LiveScore Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.90%EV -14.52%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 70.26%EV -7.85%E -6.18%K -29.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.85%EV -19.80%E -3.96%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-03 17:09
Sky Bet🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -14.52%E -1.94%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.19%EV -9.30%E -7.44%K -37.19%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.95%EV -15.79%E -3.01%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-04 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.56%EV -17.37%E -2.40%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 71.73%EV -7.85%E -6.18%K -29.06%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.71%EV -6.97%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-04 12:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.89%EV -20.22%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.18%EV -15.79%E -3.01%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-04 13:05
Neds🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.89%EV -20.22%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -6.39%E -4.96%K -22.05%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.18%EV -15.79%E -3.01%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-04 13:05
Coral🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.82%EV -20.22%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -7.12%E -5.56%K -25.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -15.79%E -3.01%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 13:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.82%EV -20.22%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -7.12%E -5.56%K -25.43%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -15.79%E -3.01%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-04 13:05
Winamax (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.74%EV -20.22%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.34%EV -9.30%E -7.44%K -37.19%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.92%EV -10.17%E -1.82%K -2.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-04 12:44
BoyleSports🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -20.22%E -2.89%K -3.37%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.13%EV -9.30%E -7.44%K -37.19%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%EV -11.78%E -2.14%K -2.62%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-04 11:20
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎9.80I 10.20%NM 10.05%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.06%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%1.5%2026-09-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎9.80I 10.20%NM 10.05%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.06%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%1.5%2026-09-04 14:25
Matchbook◎9.80I 10.20%NM 10.05%1.33I 75.19%NM 74.06%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%1.5%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎9.60I 10.42%NM 10.24%1.33I 75.19%NM 73.91%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.85%1.7%2026-09-04 14:25
Smarkets◎9.60I 10.42%NM 10.24%1.33I 75.19%NM 73.91%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.85%1.7%2026-09-04 14:30