Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.55
assuming max odds 2.75
assuming max odds 3.95
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sparta Rotterdam (Local): 38.60%; Heerenveen (Visit): 36.55%; Draw: 24.85%. For Heerenveen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.74. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.502%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.82%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.48%EV +0.502%E +0.183%K +0.287%G +0.001% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.70%EV -1.84%E -0.465%K -0.623%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.71%EV -6.58%E -2.72%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.33%EV -0.594%E -0.219%K -0.346%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.96%EV -4.32%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.63%EV -6.20%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.67%EV -1.33%E -0.491%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.70%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.63%EV -6.20%E -2.55%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.67%EV -1.33%E -0.491%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.70%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.57%EV -4.65%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.82%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.61%EV -7.55%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-17 02:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.57%EV -4.65%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.82%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.61%EV -7.55%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-17 03:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.57%EV -4.65%E -1.88%K -3.16%G +0.000% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.82%EV -2.79%E -1.05%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 3.72I 26.88%NM 25.61%EV -7.55%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-17 03:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.74%EV -8.13%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.69%EV -3.15%E -1.19%K -1.91%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.57%EV -4.32%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -3.88%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -3.88%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-19 16:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.68%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.45%EV -3.88%E -1.48%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.87%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-19 16:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.57%EV -2.72%E -1.08%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.13%EV -4.25%E -1.62%K -2.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 16:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.99%EV -1.56%E -0.613%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -4.61%E -1.77%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.89I 25.71%NM 24.90%EV -3.33%E -0.856%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.78%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.68%EV -4.32%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -5.57%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.44I 40.98%NM 38.75%EV -5.81%E -2.38%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -5.57%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-19 16:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-19 16:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-19 16:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.30%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -8.05%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.05%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 39.59%EV -10.06%E -4.32%K -7.56%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -4.98%E -1.92%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -8.05%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.56%EV -3.88%E -1.56%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.25%EV -5.71%E -2.21%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 26.20%EV -11.28%E -3.16%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.22%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -1.84%E -0.465%K -0.623%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-19 16:35 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-19 16:38 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-19 16:38 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -8.05%E -2.18%K -2.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.49%EV -11.21%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.62%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.89%EV -9.29%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.21%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.21%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.21%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.36%EV -11.21%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.50%EV -6.81%E -2.67%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.14%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.91%EV -4.27%E -1.72%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.02%EV -7.17%E -2.82%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.07%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-19 16:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.96%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.53I 39.53%NM 36.76%EV -7.54%E -2.98%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.27%EV -8.55%E -2.32%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-19 16:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -5.57%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.83%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.28%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -3.08%E -0.790%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -5.42%E -2.21%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.96%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -9.29%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-19 16:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.92%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-19 16:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.13%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.09%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.74%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -5.57%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-19 16:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-19 16:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -7.35%E -3.06%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-19 16:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.99%EV -8.13%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.17%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -13.02%E -3.72%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 39.29%EV -11.99%E -5.26%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.83%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.88%EV -10.54%E -2.93%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-09-19 16:19 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.74%EV -13.14%E -5.84%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.76%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.50%EV -9.29%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.74%EV -13.14%E -5.84%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.76%EV -8.63%E -3.45%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.50%EV -9.29%E -2.55%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-09-19 16:23 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.67%EV -9.28%E -3.95%K -6.88%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.09%EV -10.46%E -4.27%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.23%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-19 16:23 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -11.21%E -4.88%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.78%EV -10.46%E -4.27%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.03%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 38.45%EV -10.44%E -4.50%K -7.91%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.41%EV -10.46%E -4.27%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.13%EV -11.78%E -3.32%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-09-19 16:29 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -8.13%E -3.41%K -5.89%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -10.46%E -4.27%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -15.51%E -4.56%K -6.46%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.29%EV -13.14%E -5.84%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.14%EV -13.02%E -5.47%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.57%EV -6.81%E -1.82%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-19 16:23 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 38.05% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.39% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.56% | 0.3% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.23% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49% | 0.6% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.23% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49% | 0.6% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.23% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49% | 0.6% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.58I 38.76%NM 38.42% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.17% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.41% | 0.9% | 2026-09-19 16:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.27% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45% | 2.1% | 2026-09-19 16:24 |