Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.00
assuming max odds 3.90
assuming max odds 4.00
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sparta Rotterdam (Local): 48.72%; FC Zwolle (Visit): 26.27%; Draw: 25.02%. For FC Zwolle (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.81. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.43%.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.97%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV +2.43%E +0.624%K +0.839%G +0.020% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.18%EV -3.68%E -0.957%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.97%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV +2.43%E +0.624%K +0.839%G +0.020% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.18%EV -3.68%E -0.957%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.10%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.79%EV +2.43%E +0.624%K +0.839%G +0.020% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.11%EV -3.68%E -0.957%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.97%EV -7.92%E -4.19%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -0.192%E -0.051%K -0.069%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.18%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.96%EV -4.51%E -2.30%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 25.73%EV -2.03%E -0.544%K -0.744%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.32%EV -5.18%E -1.37%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-04 13:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.85%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -2.82%E -0.762%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.40%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 49.11%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -2.82%E -0.762%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.06%EV -8.90%E -4.76%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.30%EV -2.82%E -0.762%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 12:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -8.41%E -4.47%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -2.82%E -0.762%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -8.69%E -2.38%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -8.41%E -4.47%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -2.82%E -0.762%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -8.69%E -2.38%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.43%EV -8.41%E -4.47%K -9.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.11%EV -2.82%E -0.762%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.46%EV -8.69%E -2.38%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.37%EV -2.57%E -1.28%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.50%EV -4.13%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.13%EV -3.68%E -0.957%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.77%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -4.13%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 08:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.22%EV -8.90%E -4.76%K -10.23%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.22%EV -4.13%E -1.13%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.57%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.62I 27.62%NM 25.78%EV -4.92%E -1.36%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.36%EV -7.94%E -2.16%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -3.68%E -0.957%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -3.68%E -0.957%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 14:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.45%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -3.68%E -0.957%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-04 14:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.63%EV -5.49%E -2.83%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.16%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.76%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 08:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 13:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.02%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.01%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-04 08:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.05%EV -7.92%E -4.19%K -8.90%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.75%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.19%EV -7.94%E -2.16%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-04 12:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.14%EV -9.87%E -5.34%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.61%EV -11.19%E -3.15%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.17%EV -12.31%E -6.84%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -8.69%E -2.38%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.85%E -5.93%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -10.85%E -5.93%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -5.45%E -1.51%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -3.54%E -1.79%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -6.76%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -8.69%E -2.38%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 12:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 47.61%EV -3.54%E -1.79%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.56%EV -6.76%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -8.69%E -2.38%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.06%EV -10.85%E -5.93%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -6.76%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.06%EV -10.85%E -5.93%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -6.76%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 49.06%EV -10.85%E -5.93%K -13.07%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.29%EV -6.76%E -1.90%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-09-04 13:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -8.07%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV +0.070%E +0.017%K +0.023%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-04 08:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -8.07%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.07%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 14:23 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.07%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -7.44%E -3.91%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.07%E -2.31%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-04 14:29 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 48.98%EV -9.39%E -5.05%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -9.39%E -2.72%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.62%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -2.43%E -0.624%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-04 11:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -2.43%E -0.624%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 14:18 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -2.43%E -0.624%K -0.839%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-04 14:18 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.00%E -2.56%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.93%E -1.30%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.86%EV -5.98%E -3.10%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.44%E -2.01%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-04 12:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 13:25 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.45%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.89%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-04 13:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 48.73%EV -10.36%E -5.63%K -12.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.90%EV -9.94%E -2.76%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-04 08:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.87%E -5.34%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.25%EV -9.87%E -5.34%K -11.62%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -10.70%E -3.15%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.44%E -3.55%K -4.98%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-04 14:20 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.09%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -12.01%E -3.59%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -6.95%E -3.64%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -13.32%E -4.04%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-09-04 14:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -12.31%E -6.84%K -15.39%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -13.32%E -4.04%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -6.18%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-04 08:39 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.95% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.03% | 1.1% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.04% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.48% | 1.9% | 2026-09-04 14:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.87% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.07% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.06% | 2.3% | 2026-09-04 14:25 |