L’École des cotes

Sparta Rotterdam v Excelsior

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Score final : Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 Excelsior

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

57 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Sparta Rotterdam (Local)

Prévision 48.49%2.06cote équitable
EV -0.591%
Avantage -0.288%
Kelly -0.562%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 2.05

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
46.44%48.41%48.45%49.96%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.811.931.932.0555.25%51.80%51.81%48.78%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Excelsior (Visiteur)

Prévision 27.36%3.65cote équitable
EV -1.22%
Avantage -0.337%
Kelly -0.467%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 3.61

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
26.53%27.49%27.36%28.80%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.103.333.353.6132.26%30.00%29.85%27.70%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 24.14%4.14cote équitable
EV -1.01%
Avantage -0.246%
Kelly -0.326%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.02%24.10%24.19%26.15%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.253.823.834.1030.77%26.17%26.11%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (57 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMatch nulMargeMise à jour
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 47.75%EV -0.591%E -0.288%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.37%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.88%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-17 07:30
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 47.75%EV -0.591%E -0.288%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.37%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.88%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-17 07:30
Unibet (NL)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -1.08%E -0.527%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-17 07:30
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 07:30
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 08:05
BetMGM1.98I 50.51%NM 47.54%EV -3.99%E -2.01%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 08:05
1xBet1.97I 50.76%NM 48.76%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.98%EV -2.59%E -0.726%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.26%EV -4.39%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 08:16
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.07%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:30
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 47.07%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:30
betPARX1.97I 50.76%NM 47.07%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:30
Unibet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.92%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 07:30
Codere (IT)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.14%EV -4.95%E -2.53%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 08:05
Pinnacle1.95I 51.28%NM 49.32%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.64%EV -1.22%E -0.337%K -0.467%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 08:16
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -2.86%E -0.805%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 08:20
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -2.86%E -0.805%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 08:20
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 08:20
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.42%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 08:05
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.326%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:05
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 07:30
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.62%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 07:30
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-17 07:30
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 07:50
LowVig.ag1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.92%E -3.05%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:20
BetOnline.ag1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.92%E -3.05%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:20
Bet Right1.94I 51.55%NM 47.39%EV -5.92%E -3.05%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:30
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:04
PlayUp1.93I 51.81%NM 47.83%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 08:00
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 46.85%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -13.80%E -4.38%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 07:30
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 46.70%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -13.80%E -4.38%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 07:30
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 46.70%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -13.80%E -4.38%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Bovada1.92I 52.08%NM 49.00%EV -6.89%E -3.59%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:08
BetUS1.92I 52.08%NM 49.00%EV -6.89%E -3.59%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:05
BetAnything1.92I 52.08%NM 49.00%EV -6.89%E -3.59%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:05
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 08:10
Marathon Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.83%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.95%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:10
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 07:59
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 08:00
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 07:30
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:20
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:20
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 07:30
LiveScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 07:30
LeoVegas1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Betclic (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.74%EV -7.86%E -4.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -6.42%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.18%EV -7.53%E -1.97%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 08:04
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -7.86%E -4.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 07:30
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -7.86%E -4.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 08:05
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -8.83%E -4.70%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-17 08:05
PMU (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.98%EV -8.83%E -4.70%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-17 07:30
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -9.32%E -4.98%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:10
Unibet (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 48.75%EV -9.80%E -5.27%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-17 08:05
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -10.29%E -5.56%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.55%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-17 07:30
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -11.26%E -6.15%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 08:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.44%EV -11.26%E -6.15%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.41%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.15%EV -21.53%E -6.63%K -9.57%G +0.000%17.7%2026-05-17 07:30
NetBet (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 49.11%EV -12.23%E -6.76%K -15.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.35%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-17 08:10
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 49.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.02%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.97%0.0%2026-05-17 07:45
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.48%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.1%2026-05-17 08:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.60%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.4%2026-05-17 08:10
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-17 08:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-17 08:11