La escuela de los momios

Sparta Rotterdam v Excelsior

Inicio: 2026-05-17 12:30 UTC

Final: Sparta Rotterdam 2–3 Excelsior

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Sparta Rotterdam (Local)

Predicción 48.49%2.06momio equitativo
EV -0.591%
Ventaja -0.288%
Kelly -0.562%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.44%48.41%48.45%49.96%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.811.931.932.0555.25%51.80%51.81%48.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Excelsior (Visitante)

Predicción 27.36%3.65momio equitativo
EV -1.22%
Ventaja -0.337%
Kelly -0.467%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.61

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.53%27.49%27.36%28.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.333.353.6132.26%30.00%29.85%27.70%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.14%4.14momio equitativo
EV -1.01%
Ventaja -0.246%
Kelly -0.326%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.02%24.10%24.19%26.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.253.823.834.1030.77%26.17%26.11%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
ATG (SE)2.05I 48.78%NM 47.75%EV -0.591%E -0.288%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.37%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.88%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-17 07:30
Svenska Spel2.05I 48.78%NM 47.75%EV -0.591%E -0.288%K -0.562%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.37%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.88%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.2%2026-05-17 07:30
Unibet (NL)2.04I 49.02%NM 47.87%EV -1.08%E -0.527%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.82%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.326%G +0.000%2.4%2026-05-17 07:30
Coolbet2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 07:30
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -3.02%E -1.51%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 08:05
BetMGM1.98I 50.51%NM 47.54%EV -3.99%E -2.01%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 08:05
1xBet1.97I 50.76%NM 48.76%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 26.98%EV -2.59%E -0.726%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.26%EV -4.39%E -1.11%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 08:16
Unibet (SE)1.97I 50.76%NM 47.07%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:30
Casumo1.97I 50.76%NM 47.07%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:30
betPARX1.97I 50.76%NM 47.07%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-17 07:30
Unibet1.97I 50.76%NM 46.92%EV -4.47%E -2.27%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.44%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-17 07:30
Codere (IT)1.96I 51.02%NM 48.14%EV -4.95%E -2.53%K -5.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.35%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 08:05
Pinnacle1.95I 51.28%NM 49.32%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.64%EV -1.22%E -0.337%K -0.467%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.04%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-17 08:16
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -2.86%E -0.805%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 08:20
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -2.86%E -0.805%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.63%E -1.17%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 08:20
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-17 08:20
Unibet (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 48.42%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.21%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 08:05
FanDuel1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -1.01%E -0.246%K -0.326%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Ladbrokes (UK)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:05
Betr (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.90%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.74%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 07:30
PointsBet (AU)1.95I 51.28%NM 47.62%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 07:30
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-17 07:30
William Hill1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.44%E -2.79%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.4%2026-05-17 07:50
LowVig.ag1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.92%E -3.05%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:20
BetOnline.ag1.94I 51.55%NM 48.40%EV -5.92%E -3.05%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.39%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-17 08:20
Bet Right1.94I 51.55%NM 47.39%EV -5.92%E -3.05%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-17 07:30
Bet Victor1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-17 08:04
PlayUp1.93I 51.81%NM 47.83%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-17 08:00
BetRivers1.93I 51.81%NM 46.85%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.71%EV -13.80%E -4.38%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -10.67%E -2.88%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-17 07:30
Grosvenor1.93I 51.81%NM 46.70%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -13.80%E -4.38%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 07:30
TABtouch1.93I 51.81%NM 46.70%EV -6.41%E -3.32%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.61%EV -13.80%E -4.38%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Bovada1.92I 52.08%NM 49.00%EV -6.89%E -3.59%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:08
BetUS1.92I 52.08%NM 49.00%EV -6.89%E -3.59%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:05
BetAnything1.92I 52.08%NM 49.00%EV -6.89%E -3.59%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 08:05
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 08:10
Marathon Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.83%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.95%EV -5.32%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.22%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 08:10
Everygame1.91I 52.36%NM 48.79%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.20%EV -7.05%E -1.83%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 07:59
Betway1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 08:00
Paddy Power1.91I 52.36%NM 48.21%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 07:30
888sport1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:20
Mr Green (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:20
888sport (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -6.96%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-17 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Virgin Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 07:30
LiveScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 07:30
LeoVegas1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -7.38%E -3.86%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.80%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.46%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-17 07:30
Betclic (FR)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.74%EV -7.86%E -4.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.08%EV -6.42%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.18%EV -7.53%E -1.97%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-17 08:04
SportsBet1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -7.86%E -4.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -11.07%E -3.41%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 07:30
Winamax (DE)1.90I 52.63%NM 48.47%EV -7.86%E -4.14%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -5.84%E -1.50%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 08:05
Winamax (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 48.03%EV -8.83%E -4.70%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -8.25%E -2.17%K -2.95%G +0.000%10.8%2026-05-17 08:05
PMU (FR)1.88I 53.19%NM 46.98%EV -8.83%E -4.70%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -13.08%E -3.63%K -5.03%G +0.000%13.2%2026-05-17 07:30
Tipico (DE)1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -9.32%E -4.98%K -10.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -3.42%E -0.856%K -1.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 08:10
Unibet (FR)1.86I 53.76%NM 48.75%EV -9.80%E -5.27%K -11.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-17 08:05
Sky Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 47.84%EV -10.29%E -5.56%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.55%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.60%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-17 07:30
BoyleSports1.83I 54.64%NM 48.55%EV -11.26%E -6.15%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.76%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.69%EV -9.46%E -2.52%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-17 08:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.83I 54.64%NM 46.44%EV -11.26%E -6.15%K -13.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.41%EV -15.17%E -4.89%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.15%EV -21.53%E -6.63%K -9.57%G +0.000%17.7%2026-05-17 07:30
NetBet (FR)1.81I 55.25%NM 49.11%EV -12.23%E -6.76%K -15.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.53%EV -8.33%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.35%EV -11.87%E -3.25%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-17 08:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.04I 49.02%NM 49.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.02%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.97%0.0%2026-05-17 07:45
Matchbook2.00I 50.00%NM 49.48%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.39%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.1%2026-05-17 08:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.99I 50.25%NM 49.60%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.32%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.08%1.3%2026-05-17 08:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.30%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.05%1.4%2026-05-17 08:10
Smarkets2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-17 08:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-05-17 08:11