Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Telstar v Sparta Rotterdam

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:00 UTC

Final: SC Telstar 1–3 Sparta Rotterdam

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Telstar (Local)

Prediction 44.45%2.25fair odd
EV +0.005%
Edge +0.002%
Kelly +0.004%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.45%44.43%44.55%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.112.122.2551.28%47.29%47.17%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visit)

Prediction 30.46%3.28fair odd
EV +2.03%
Edge +0.605%
Kelly +0.863%
Growth +0.017%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.95%30.46%30.39%31.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.013.3535.71%33.00%33.17%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.10%3.98fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.544%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.67%25.11%25.06%26.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.683.703.9029.41%27.14%27.03%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Telstar (Local): 44.45%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visit): 30.46%; Draw: 25.10%. For Sparta Rotterdam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.53%EV -5.33%E -2.50%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV +2.03%E +0.605%K +0.863%G +0.017%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-14 17:54
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.24%EV -4.88%E -2.28%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.42%EV +0.200%E +0.061%K +0.087%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.34%EV -4.13%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 17:50
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-14 17:53
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-14 17:38
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.58%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 17:39
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 17:45
Bovada🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.09%EV -7.11%E -3.40%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.88%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 17:24
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 17:45
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95%EV -2.22%E -1.01%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.60%EV -3.76%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-14 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.32%EV -3.11%E -1.42%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.58%EV -3.76%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.37%E -0.877%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-14 17:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.32%EV -3.11%E -1.42%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.58%EV -3.76%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.37%E -0.877%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-14 17:35
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.33%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.26%EV -4.06%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 17:55
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.75%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.60%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -3.37%E -0.877%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 17:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 17:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.08%EV -4.88%E -2.28%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 17:39
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 17:54
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 17:35
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.19%EV -6.22%E -2.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -6.20%E -2.01%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.20%EV +0.005%E +0.002%K +0.004%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.87%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.93%EV -2.12%E -0.544%K -0.731%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-14 17:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.14%EV -0.884%E -0.396%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.54%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.32%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-14 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.14%EV -0.884%E -0.396%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.54%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.32%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-14 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.90%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -2.12%E -0.544%K -0.731%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 17:49
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.25%EV -3.11%E -1.42%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.91%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.31%EV -12.00%E -6.06%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.42%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -10.90%E -3.07%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-14 17:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.74%EV -9.33%E -4.57%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.12%EV -7.72%E -2.55%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.14%EV -8.90%E -2.45%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:48
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -2.22%E -1.01%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 17:35
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -2.22%E -1.01%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 17:30
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 17:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 17:50
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 17:54
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -8.88%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 17:50
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -8.88%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 17:40
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.67%E -4.31%K -6.11%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 17:44
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -3.55%E -1.64%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.16%E -3.44%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 17:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -3.55%E -1.64%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.16%E -3.44%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 17:39
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -3.55%E -1.64%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.16%E -3.44%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -8.88%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.00%EV -10.16%E -3.44%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 17:34
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 17:54
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.91%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 17:40
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:54
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.69%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.82%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 17:34
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.51%EV -13.33%E -6.84%K -14.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -12.29%E -4.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 17:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.72%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -13.20%E -4.63%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -10.90%E -3.07%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-14 17:39
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.72%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -13.20%E -4.63%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -10.90%E -3.07%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-14 17:40
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.72%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -13.20%E -4.63%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -10.90%E -3.07%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-14 17:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.72%E -5.26%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.72%E -5.26%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.72%E -5.26%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 17:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi2.22I 45.05%NM 45.01%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.98%0.1%2026-08-14 17:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-08-14 17:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-08-14 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-08-14 17:45
Smarkets2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%0.6%2026-08-14 17:55
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.24%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-08-14 17:55