Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Telstar v Sparta Rotterdam

Inicio: 2026-08-14 18:00 UTC

Final: SC Telstar 1–3 Sparta Rotterdam

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Telstar (Local)

Predicción 44.45%2.25momio equitativo
EV +0.005%
Ventaja +0.002%
Kelly +0.004%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.45%44.43%44.55%45.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.952.112.122.2551.28%47.29%47.17%44.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visitante)

Predicción 30.46%3.28momio equitativo
EV +2.03%
Ventaja +0.605%
Kelly +0.863%
Crecimiento +0.017%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.95%30.46%30.39%31.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.803.033.013.3535.71%33.00%33.17%29.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.10%3.98momio equitativo
EV -2.12%
Ventaja -0.544%
Kelly -0.731%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.67%25.11%25.06%26.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.683.703.9029.41%27.14%27.03%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: SC Telstar (Local): 44.45%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visitante): 30.46%; Empate: 25.10%. Para Sparta Rotterdam (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.28. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.35, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.03%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.53%EV -5.33%E -2.50%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.95%EV +2.03%E +0.605%K +0.863%G +0.017%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.52%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-14 17:54
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.24%EV -4.88%E -2.28%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.42%EV +0.200%E +0.061%K +0.087%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.34%EV -4.13%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-14 17:50
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-14 17:53
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-14 17:38
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.58%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.53%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 17:39
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-14 17:45
Bovada🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.09%EV -7.11%E -3.40%K -6.52%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.47%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -8.88%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 17:24
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -7.55%E -3.63%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -2.54%E -0.794%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 17:45
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95%EV -2.22%E -1.01%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.60%EV -3.76%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.45%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-14 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.32%EV -3.11%E -1.42%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.58%EV -3.76%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.37%E -0.877%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-14 17:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.32%EV -3.11%E -1.42%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.58%EV -3.76%E -1.19%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.10%EV -3.37%E -0.877%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-14 17:35
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.33%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.26%EV -4.06%E -1.29%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-14 17:55
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.75%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.60%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.64%EV -3.37%E -0.877%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-14 17:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 17:34
Codere (IT)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.08%EV -4.88%E -2.28%K -4.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 17:39
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 17:54
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 17:35
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -5.59%E -1.80%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-14 17:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.19%EV -6.22%E -2.95%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.27%EV -6.20%E -2.01%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.54%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.20%EV +0.005%E +0.002%K +0.004%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.87%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.93%EV -2.12%E -0.544%K -0.731%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-14 17:39
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.14%EV -0.884%E -0.396%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.54%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.32%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-14 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.14%EV -0.884%E -0.396%K -0.718%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.54%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.32%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-14 17:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.90%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -2.12%E -0.544%K -0.731%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 17:49
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.25%EV -3.11%E -1.42%K -2.63%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.91%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.31%EV -12.00%E -6.06%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.42%EV -7.11%E -2.33%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.27%EV -10.90%E -3.07%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-14 17:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.74%EV -9.33%E -4.57%K -8.97%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.12%EV -7.72%E -2.55%K -3.80%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.14%EV -8.90%E -2.45%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:48
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -2.22%E -1.01%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 17:35
Grosvenor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -2.22%E -1.01%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 17:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 17:30
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 17:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.39%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-14 17:50
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.25%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 17:54
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -8.88%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 17:50
Bet Right🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.84%EV -8.88%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.64%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 17:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -9.65%E -2.68%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 17:40
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -8.63%E -2.88%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -14.67%E -4.31%K -6.11%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 17:44
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -3.55%E -1.64%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.16%E -3.44%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 17:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -3.55%E -1.64%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.16%E -3.44%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 17:39
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.06%EV -3.55%E -1.64%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.68%EV -10.16%E -3.44%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.26%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.61%EV -8.88%E -4.33%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.00%EV -10.16%E -3.44%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 17:34
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -7.14%E -1.93%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 17:54
Unibet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.91%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 17:40
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:54
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.44%E -2.06%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 17:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.69%EV -11.11%E -5.55%K -11.11%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.82%EV -11.68%E -4.03%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.49%EV -8.39%E -2.30%K -3.17%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 17:34
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.51%EV -13.33%E -6.84%K -14.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -12.29%E -4.27%K -6.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.67%EV -5.88%E -1.57%K -2.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 17:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.72%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -13.20%E -4.63%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -10.90%E -3.07%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-14 17:39
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.72%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -13.20%E -4.63%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -10.90%E -3.07%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-14 17:40
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.72%EV -5.77%E -2.72%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.77%EV -13.20%E -4.63%K -7.14%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -10.90%E -3.07%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-14 17:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.72%E -5.26%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 17:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.72%E -5.26%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 17:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -6.66%E -3.17%K -6.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -14.72%E -5.26%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -12.16%E -3.47%K -4.86%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 17:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 45.01%3.33I 30.03%NM 30.01%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.98%0.1%2026-08-14 17:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-08-14 17:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-08-14 17:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.23%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.26%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-08-14 17:45
Smarkets◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.38%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.13%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.49%0.6%2026-08-14 17:55
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.24%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.03%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-08-14 17:55