Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Telstar v Ajax

Kickoff: 2026-08-30 14:45 UTC

Final: SC Telstar 0–4 Ajax

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Telstar (Local)

Prediction 17.04%5.87fair odd
EV +3.96%
Edge +0.650%
Kelly +0.777%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.84%17.14%17.09%19.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.525.506.1022.22%18.13%18.18%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ajax (Visit)

Prediction 63.24%1.58fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -2.55%
Kelly -7.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.98%63.10%63.23%65.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.471.5271.43%68.38%68.03%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.71%5.07fair odd
EV +3.50%
Edge +0.667%
Kelly +0.823%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.41%19.76%19.68%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.724.755.2523.81%21.17%21.05%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Telstar (Local): 17.04%; Ajax (Visit): 63.24%; Draw: 19.71%. For SC Telstar (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.87. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.91%EV +3.96%E +0.650%K +0.777%G +0.031%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.59%EV -6.40%E -4.32%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.49%EV +3.50%E +0.667%K +0.823%G +0.029%3.0%2026-08-30 14:35
ATG (SE)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.91%EV +3.96%E +0.650%K +0.777%G +0.031%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.59%EV -6.40%E -4.32%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.49%EV +3.50%E +0.667%K +0.823%G +0.029%3.0%2026-08-30 14:35
Unibet (NL)🎯6.10I 16.39%NM 15.84%EV +3.96%E +0.650%K +0.777%G +0.031%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.75%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.96%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.41%EV +3.50%E +0.667%K +0.823%G +0.029%3.5%2026-08-30 14:35
LowVig.ag🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV +2.26%E +0.376%K +0.452%G +0.010%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.67%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.48%EV -3.79%E -0.778%K -0.978%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:25
BetOnline.ag🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV +2.26%E +0.376%K +0.452%G +0.010%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.67%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.48%EV -3.79%E -0.778%K -0.978%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:25
BetAnything🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV +2.26%E +0.376%K +0.452%G +0.010%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.67%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.48%EV -3.79%E -0.778%K -0.978%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:30
BetUS🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV +2.26%E +0.376%K +0.452%G +0.010%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.67%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.48%EV -3.79%E -0.778%K -0.978%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:30
NordicBet🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 16.03%EV +0.554%E +0.094%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.23%EV -3.87%E -2.55%K -7.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -14.24%E -3.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:40
Betsson🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 16.03%EV +0.554%E +0.094%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.23%EV -3.87%E -2.55%K -7.44%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -14.24%E -3.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:40
FanDuel🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 16.02%EV +0.554%E +0.094%K +0.113%G +0.001%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -6.40%E -4.32%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.11%EV -7.34%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-30 14:39
1xBet🎯5.88I 17.01%NM 16.45%EV +0.213%E +0.036%K +0.044%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.62%EV -3.87%E -2.55%K -7.44%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.94%EV -4.39%E -0.904%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-30 14:40
Pinnacle🎯5.88I 17.01%NM 16.40%EV +0.213%E +0.036%K +0.044%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 63.46%EV -3.87%E -2.55%K -7.44%G +0.000%4.79I 20.88%NM 20.14%EV -5.57%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-30 14:40
Grosvenor🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.22%EV -1.15%E -0.198%K -0.240%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.33%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.45%EV +0.543%E +0.106%K +0.132%G +0.001%6.3%2026-08-30 14:35
SportsBet🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -1.15%E -0.198%K -0.240%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.42%EV -6.40%E -4.32%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -9.31%E -2.02%K -2.59%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:40
Tipico (DE)🎯5.80I 17.24%NM 16.11%EV -1.15%E -0.198%K -0.240%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.57%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -9.31%E -2.02%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-30 14:40
betano_uk🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.71%EV -2.00%E -0.348%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.07%EV -5.14%E -3.42%K -10.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.22%EV -1.43%E -0.286%K -0.357%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-30 14:39
Bet Victor🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.58%EV -2.00%E -0.348%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.56%EV -5.14%E -3.42%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.86%EV -5.37%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 14:33
Casumo🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -2.00%E -0.348%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.91%EV -9.56%E -6.69%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.94%EV -3.40%E -0.694%K -0.872%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -2.00%E -0.348%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.91%EV -9.56%E -6.69%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.94%EV -3.40%E -0.694%K -0.872%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 14:35
betPARX🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -2.00%E -0.348%K -0.422%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 64.91%EV -9.56%E -6.69%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.94%EV -3.40%E -0.694%K -0.872%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 14:35
Bovada🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.77%EV -4.56%E -0.814%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.03%EV -5.77%E -3.87%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.20%EV -8.33%E -1.79%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:23
Unibet🎯5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -4.56%E -0.814%K -0.991%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.22%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.27%EV -5.37%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-30 14:35
Coral🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -5.14%E -3.42%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -5.37%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:40
BetMGM🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.08%EV -5.14%E -3.42%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -5.37%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:40
Betr (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -6.40%E -4.32%K -13.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -1.43%E -0.286%K -0.357%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:20
Fanatics🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.95%EV -5.14%E -3.42%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.88%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 14:05
DraftKings🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.13%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.82%EV -5.14%E -3.42%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.05%EV -7.34%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-30 14:25
Betway🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.26%EV -6.40%E -4.32%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.71%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 14:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.95%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.42%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-30 14:15
PlayUp🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.82%EV -5.14%E -3.42%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -14.24%E -3.27%K -4.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 14:40
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -9.31%E -2.02%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 14:15
BetRivers🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 63.93%EV -9.56%E -6.69%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.45%EV -7.34%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-30 14:30
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.93%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -6.26%E -1.14%K -1.39%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 62.93%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 14:40
Marathon Bet🎯5.45I 18.35%NM 17.11%EV -7.12%E -1.31%K -1.60%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.45%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.43%EV -5.37%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-30 14:40
Codere (IT)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.39%EV -7.97%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -6.40%E -4.32%K -13.33%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -3.40%E -0.694%K -0.872%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:35
PMU (FR)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -7.97%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.89%EV -10.20%E -7.18%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.30%EV -7.34%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 14:35
TABtouch🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.80%EV -7.97%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.89%EV -10.20%E -7.18%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.30%EV -7.34%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 14:35
Virgin Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -7.97%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.95%EV -11.46%E -8.19%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.46%EV -9.31%E -2.02%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 14:35
LiveScore Bet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -7.97%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.95%EV -11.46%E -8.19%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.46%EV -9.31%E -2.02%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -7.97%E -1.48%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 63.95%EV -11.46%E -8.19%K -28.65%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.46%EV -9.31%E -2.02%K -2.59%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-30 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -10.52%E -2.00%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.06%EV -5.14%E -3.42%K -10.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -1.43%E -0.286%K -0.357%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -10.52%E -2.00%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.57%EV -5.14%E -3.42%K -10.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -5.37%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-30 14:05
Bet Right🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.46%EV -10.52%E -2.00%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.23%EV -8.30%E -5.72%K -18.44%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -6.36%E -1.34%K -1.70%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-30 14:15
Betclic (FR)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.27%EV -10.52%E -2.00%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 63.84%EV -10.20%E -7.18%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.89%EV -5.37%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 14:38
Sky Bet🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -10.52%E -2.00%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -17.20%E -4.10%K -5.38%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-30 14:40
NetBet (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.54%EV -13.08%E -2.56%K -3.19%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 62.57%EV -9.56%E -6.69%K -22.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.88%EV -11.29%E -2.51%K -3.22%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 14:40
Unibet (FR)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.87%EV -14.79%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 62.92%EV -10.20%E -7.18%K -24.27%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.21%EV -8.33%E -1.79%K -2.28%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-30 14:40
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.79%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-30 14:25
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.79%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-30 14:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.79%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-30 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -14.79%E -2.96%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.26%E -3.01%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-30 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.68%EV -16.49%E -3.37%K -4.23%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.26%EV -7.03%E -4.78%K -14.96%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -5.37%E -1.12%K -1.41%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-30 14:40
Winamax (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.08%EV -19.90%E -4.23%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.84%EV -8.30%E -5.72%K -18.44%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.08%EV -7.34%E -1.56%K -1.98%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-30 14:40
BoyleSports🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -23.31%E -5.18%K -6.66%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 60.98%EV -8.93%E -6.20%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.51%EV -11.29%E -2.51%K -3.22%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-30 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.25%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.1%2026-08-30 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.25%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.1%2026-08-30 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)6.20I 16.13%NM 15.96%1.54I 64.94%NM 64.25%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%1.1%2026-08-30 14:40
Matchbook6.20I 16.13%NM 15.89%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.40%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.71%1.5%2026-08-30 14:40
Kalshi6.25I 16.00%NM 15.72%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.63%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%1.8%2026-08-30 14:40
Smarkets6.00I 16.67%NM 16.27%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.81%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.92%2.4%2026-08-30 14:40