Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Cambuur v Excelsior

Inicio: 2026-08-07 18:00 UTC

Final: SC Cambuur 0–4 Excelsior

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Cambuur (Local)

Predicción 35.62%2.81momio equitativo
EV +3.31%
Ventaja +1.14%
Kelly +1.74%
Crecimiento +0.058%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.46%35.76%35.59%39.08%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.302.612.612.9043.48%38.35%38.31%34.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Excelsior (Visitante)

Predicción 37.21%2.69momio equitativo
EV -1.39%
Ventaja -0.523%
Kelly -0.840%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.79%37.16%37.19%38.50%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.512.502.6542.55%39.80%40.00%37.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.16%3.68momio equitativo
EV -2.21%
Ventaja -0.615%
Kelly -0.851%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.97%27.09%27.22%28.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.403.403.6031.75%29.45%29.41%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: SC Cambuur (Local): 35.62%; Excelsior (Visitante): 37.21%; Empate: 27.16%. Para SC Cambuur (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.81. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.90, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.31%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.46%EV +3.31%E +1.14%K +1.74%G +0.058%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.50%EV -6.22%E -2.47%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 28.04%EV -6.02%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-07 17:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.51%EV -1.39%E -0.523%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-07 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.51%EV -1.39%E -0.523%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-07 17:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.84%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.51%EV -1.39%E -0.523%K -0.840%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-07 17:40
Pinnacle🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.70%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 37.22%EV -3.62%E -1.40%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.08%EV -3.30%E -0.927%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-07 17:50
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -11.72%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -11.72%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 17:50
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -11.72%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -3.82%E -1.41%K -2.24%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -11.72%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 17:50
Betsson🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.52%EV -4.53%E -1.69%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.89%EV -3.99%E -1.55%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.59%EV -6.29%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 17:20
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.52%EV -4.53%E -1.69%K -2.70%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.89%EV -3.99%E -1.55%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.59%EV -6.29%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-07 17:25
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.91%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -2.21%E -0.615%K -0.851%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-07 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -6.29%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 17:45
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.62%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.36%EV -6.29%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 17:43
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.50%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.63%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 17:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -7.65%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.23%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 17:30
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.65%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 17:30
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.22%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.33%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.65%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -5.60%E -2.11%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.18%EV -6.60%E -2.63%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.61%EV -8.19%E -2.42%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 17:55
Bovada🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.60%EV -5.95%E -2.25%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 37.15%EV -5.85%E -2.31%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.24%EV -6.29%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-07 17:48
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.91%EV -6.31%E -2.40%K -3.87%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.32%EV -3.25%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -7.65%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 17:40
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.29%EV -6.67%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.29%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -2.21%E -0.615%K -0.851%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 17:28
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.29%EV -6.67%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.29%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -2.21%E -0.615%K -0.851%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-07 17:25
LowVig.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -6.67%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -2.50%E -0.955%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.29%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -6.67%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -2.50%E -0.955%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.29%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 17:40
BetAnything🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -6.67%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.24%EV -2.50%E -0.955%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.29%E -1.82%K -2.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-07 17:40
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.99%EV -6.67%E -2.54%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.25%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -7.65%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 17:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -2.21%E -0.615%K -0.851%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -3.25%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.65%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 17:15
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.17%EV -3.25%E -1.25%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -7.65%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-07 17:10
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-07 17:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -9.00%E -2.69%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 17:30
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -9.00%E -2.69%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 17:30
betPARX🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.77%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.76%EV -9.00%E -2.69%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 17:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-07 17:55
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -5.11%E -2.00%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -10.36%E -3.14%K -4.51%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-07 17:45
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.93%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.56%EV -9.00%E -2.69%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-07 17:20
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.38%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -10.69%E -4.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-07 17:55
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -7.38%E -2.84%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.69%E -4.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -10.36%E -3.14%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-07 17:30
Betclic (FR)🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 35.20%EV -8.09%E -3.14%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.84%EV -10.69%E -4.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.95%EV -8.46%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-07 17:40
BetUS🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.49%EV -8.80%E -3.44%K -5.64%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 35.79%EV -2.87%E -1.10%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.72%EV -8.46%E -2.51%K -3.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-07 16:35
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.11%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -4.93%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 17:55
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -11.72%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-07 17:30
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.66%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.37%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -11.72%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-07 17:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -10.69%E -4.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -10.36%E -3.14%K -4.51%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-07 17:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.13%EV -9.16%E -3.59%K -5.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.12%EV -12.55%E -5.34%K -9.30%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -9.00%E -2.69%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-07 17:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -7.65%E -2.25%K -3.19%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-07 17:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.14%EV -7.71%E -3.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -13.08%E -4.09%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-07 17:31
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.14%EV -7.71%E -3.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -13.08%E -4.09%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-07 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.85%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.14%EV -7.71%E -3.11%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -13.08%E -4.09%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-07 17:31
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -10.69%E -4.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.68%EV -13.08%E -4.09%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-07 17:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.41%EV -10.94%E -4.38%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.35%EV -11.81%E -4.98%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.24%EV -11.72%E -3.61%K -5.21%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-07 17:50
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 35.72%EV -11.65%E -4.70%K -7.87%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.16%EV -8.83%E -3.60%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.12%EV -14.44%E -4.58%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-07 17:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.33%EV -12.72%E -5.19%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.09%EV -10.69%E -4.45%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.57%EV -9.00%E -2.69%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-07 17:40
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -18.06%E -7.85%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -6.97%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -2.21%E -0.615%K -0.851%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-07 07:16
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.84I 35.21%NM 35.17%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.83%3.70I 27.03%NM 27.00%0.1%2026-08-07 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.33%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%0.4%2026-08-07 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.33%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.93%0.4%2026-08-07 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.23%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.92%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.85%0.7%2026-08-07 17:55
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.66%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%0.9%2026-08-07 17:55
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.26%2.63I 38.02%NM 37.28%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.46%2.0%2026-08-07 15:40