Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

PSV Eindhoven v FC Utrecht

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PSV Eindhoven (Local)

Prediction 65.80%1.52fair odd
EV -1.30%
Edge -0.869%
Kelly -2.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.00%65.78%65.94%68.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.421.421.5074.07%70.47%70.42%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Utrecht (Visit)

Prediction 14.77%6.77fair odd
EV +6.96%
Edge +0.962%
Kelly +1.12%
Growth +0.078%

assuming max odds 7.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.29%14.82%14.71%16.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.306.256.407.2418.87%15.99%15.63%13.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.43%5.15fair odd
EV +2.00%
Edge +0.381%
Kelly +0.470%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.95%19.40%19.35%21.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.694.605.2525.00%21.31%21.74%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PSV Eindhoven (Local): 65.80%; FC Utrecht (Visit): 14.77%; Draw: 19.43%. For FC Utrecht (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.77. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.24, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.80%EV -5.25%E -3.65%K -11.93%G +0.000%7.24I 13.81%NM 13.29%EV +6.96%E +0.962%K +1.12%G +0.078%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.92%EV -6.16%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 14:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -4.59%E -3.17%K -10.21%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.39%EV +6.37%E +0.885%K +1.03%G +0.066%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.09%EV -6.74%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 14:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 66.51%EV -4.59%E -3.17%K -10.21%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.39%EV +6.37%E +0.885%K +1.03%G +0.066%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.09%EV -6.74%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-04 14:10
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -6.57%E -4.62%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.93%EV +0.464%E +0.068%K +0.080%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -4.80%E -0.980%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 14:24
Betsson🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.73%EV -6.57%E -4.62%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.93%EV +0.464%E +0.068%K +0.080%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.34%EV -4.80%E -0.980%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 14:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -9.86%E -7.19%K -26.64%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.93%EV -1.01%E -0.151%K -0.178%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.95%EV +1.03%E +0.197%K +0.244%G +0.003%7.1%2026-04-04 14:09
Coolbet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.16%EV -6.57%E -4.62%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.67%EV -3.97%E -0.610%K -0.721%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.17%EV +2.00%E +0.381%K +0.470%G +0.009%4.9%2026-04-04 14:20
Fanatics🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.56%EV -6.57%E -4.62%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.54%EV -3.97%E -0.610%K -0.721%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -2.86%E -0.572%K -0.715%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 14:09
Bet Victor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -3.97%E -0.610%K -0.721%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV +2.00%E +0.381%K +0.470%G +0.009%5.9%2026-04-04 14:24
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.88%EV -5.91%E -4.13%K -13.74%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV -3.97%E -0.610%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -6.74%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 14:09
BetUS🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.40%EV -3.94%E -2.70%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -3.97%E -0.610%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.13%EV -13.54%E -3.04%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 13:30
BetAnything🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.40%EV -3.94%E -2.70%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -3.97%E -0.610%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.13%EV -13.54%E -3.04%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 13:30
Everygame🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -5.25%E -3.65%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -3.97%E -0.610%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 12:44
SportsBet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -3.97%E -0.610%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -7.72%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-04 14:09
FanDuel🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.10%EV -9.86%E -7.19%K -26.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.14%EV -3.97%E -0.610%K -0.721%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -4.80%E -0.980%K -1.23%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.95%EV -2.62%E -1.77%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.02%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.03%EV -6.74%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 14:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.95%EV -2.62%E -1.77%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.02%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.03%EV -6.74%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-04 14:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.42%EV -4.59%E -3.17%K -10.21%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.82%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV -6.74%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 14:24
Unibet (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -5.25%E -3.65%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -10.63%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 14:24
Unibet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.02%EV -5.25%E -3.65%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -10.63%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.18%EV -5.91%E -4.13%K -13.74%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -10.63%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 14:25
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.18%EV -5.91%E -4.13%K -13.74%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.56%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.26%EV -10.63%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 14:25
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.34%EV -6.57%E -4.62%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -10.63%E -2.31%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-04 13:39
TABtouch🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.04%EV -6.57%E -4.62%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.52%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 14:24
Grosvenor🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.04%EV -6.57%E -4.62%K -15.64%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.43%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.52%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 14:25
LeoVegas🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.20%EV -7.23%E -5.12%K -17.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.20%EV -7.23%E -5.12%K -17.62%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.37%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 14:24
PMU (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.06%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.06%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.06%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.23%EV -5.45%E -0.851%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.70%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-04 14:24
Marathon Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -5.25%E -3.65%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 14.69%EV -6.18%E -0.974%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.51%EV -11.60%E -2.55%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 14:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -7.66%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -2.86%E -0.572%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.49%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.89%EV -7.66%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -2.86%E -0.572%K -0.715%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 14:20
PlayUp🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.84%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.75%EV -7.66%E -1.23%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -7.72%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 14:24
Codere (IT)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.94%EV -5.91%E -4.13%K -13.74%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.21%EV -8.40%E -1.35%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.86%EV -2.86%E -0.572%K -0.715%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 14:24
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.82%EV -2.62%E -1.77%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.99%EV -11.36%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.19%EV -2.86%E -0.572%K -0.715%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 10:15
Bet Right🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -11.36%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -2.86%E -0.572%K -0.715%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 14:20
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -5.25%E -3.65%K -11.93%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.36%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 14:08
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.36%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 14:24
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.36%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 14:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.36%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 14:24
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -7.88%E -5.63%K -19.71%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.11%EV -11.36%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-04 14:24
Betclic (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 64.31%EV -8.54%E -6.14%K -21.90%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.90%EV -11.36%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -16.46%E -3.83%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 14:21
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -10.52%E -7.73%K -29.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -11.36%E -1.89%K -2.27%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-04 11:44
1xBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.78%EV -1.30%E -0.869%K -2.61%G +0.000%5.93I 16.86%NM 16.39%EV -12.39%E -2.09%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.16I 19.38%NM 18.83%EV +0.249%E +0.048%K +0.060%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-04 14:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.12%EV -11.17%E -8.28%K -31.92%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.90%EV -12.83%E -2.18%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.98%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%13.8%2026-04-04 14:19
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.38%EV -2.62%E -1.77%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.57%EV -15.05%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.06%EV -2.86%E -0.572%K -0.715%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-04 10:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.87%EV -2.62%E -1.77%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.44%EV -15.05%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV -6.74%E -1.41%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-04 10:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.84%EV -4.59%E -3.17%K -10.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.35%EV -15.05%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -2.86%E -0.572%K -0.715%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-04 11:20
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -10.52%E -7.73%K -29.21%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -15.05%E -2.62%K -3.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%13.1%2026-04-04 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.54%EV -6.57%E -4.62%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -18.74%E -3.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.05%EV -12.57%E -2.79%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-04 14:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.25%EV -6.57%E -4.62%K -15.64%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -18.74%E -3.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.41%EV -14.52%E -3.30%K -4.27%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-04 14:24
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.21%EV -10.52%E -7.73%K -29.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.12%EV -18.74%E -3.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.67%EV -7.72%E -1.62%K -2.06%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-04 14:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 63.00%EV -10.52%E -7.73%K -29.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.58%EV -18.74%E -3.41%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.42%EV -22.29%E -5.57%K -7.43%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 14:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.72%EV -11.17%E -8.28%K -31.92%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.49%EV -21.70%E -4.09%K -5.05%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 18.79%EV -9.66%E -2.08%K -2.65%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-04 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.47I 68.03%NM 67.75%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.46%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.79%0.4%2026-04-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-04-04 14:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-04-04 14:25
Kalshi1.47I 68.03%NM 67.32%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.86%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.81%1.0%2026-04-04 14:25
Smarkets1.46I 68.49%NM 67.16%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.62%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.23%2.0%2026-04-04 14:24