Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen v Feyenoord

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 14:30 UTC

Final: NEC Nijmegen 1–3 Feyenoord

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NEC Nijmegen (Local)

Prediction 34.45%2.90fair odd
EV +3.36%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.68%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.50%34.40%34.51%36.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.732.753.0041.67%36.60%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Feyenoord (Visit)

Prediction 42.00%2.38fair odd
EV -2.99%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.06%42.06%41.89%43.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.072.192.202.3148.31%45.61%45.45%43.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.55%4.25fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.259%
Kelly -0.340%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.68%23.54%23.60%24.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.944.004.2027.03%25.41%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NEC Nijmegen (Local): 34.45%; Feyenoord (Visit): 42.00%; Draw: 23.55%. For NEC Nijmegen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.90. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.50%EV +3.36%E +1.12%K +1.68%G +0.056%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.72%EV -6.34%E -2.85%K -5.16%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%2.6%2026-09-04 14:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.68%EV +1.63%E +0.554%K +0.838%G +0.014%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.81%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.68%EV +1.63%E +0.554%K +0.838%G +0.014%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.81%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.51%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -0.089%E -0.031%K -0.047%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.65%EV -8.86%E -4.09%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -1.81%E -0.636%K -0.979%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Casumo🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -1.81%E -0.636%K -0.979%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:35
betPARX🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -1.81%E -0.636%K -0.979%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:35
Unibet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.55%EV -1.81%E -0.636%K -0.979%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 43.35%EV -10.12%E -4.73%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.10%EV -9.33%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-04 14:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.89%EV -3.19%E -1.14%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.89%EV -6.76%E -3.05%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.89%EV -3.19%E -1.14%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.89%EV -6.76%E -3.05%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:50
BetUS🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.89%EV -3.19%E -1.14%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.89%EV -6.76%E -3.05%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:49
BetAnything🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.89%EV -3.19%E -1.14%K -1.76%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.89%EV -6.76%E -3.05%K -5.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-03 02:48
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.02%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -1.09%E -0.259%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-04 13:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -5.50%E -2.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-04 13:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.06%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-04 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 11:40
Coral🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 11:40
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-03 11:40
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -3.53%E -1.26%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -11.80%E -5.62%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -10.51%E -2.77%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-04 14:35
NordicBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.11%EV -4.22%E -1.52%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -4.25%E -1.86%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 13:30
Betsson🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.11%EV -4.22%E -1.52%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -4.25%E -1.86%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-04 13:30
1xBet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.81%EV -4.91%E -1.78%K -2.79%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.59%EV -2.99%E -1.29%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.60%EV -4.15%E -1.02%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-04 13:55
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.55%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-04 13:34
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-04 13:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -11.80%E -5.62%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 14:35
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -11.80%E -5.62%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-04 14:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.25%EV -13.06%E -6.31%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 14:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.25%EV -13.06%E -6.31%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.55%EV -5.26%E -1.91%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.25%EV -13.06%E -6.31%K -12.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -12.86%E -3.48%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Pinnacle🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.13%EV -5.60%E -2.04%K -3.22%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -2.99%E -1.29%K -2.28%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.20%EV -2.27%E -0.546%K -0.720%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-04 14:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.06%EV -3.83%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -8.15%E -2.09%K -2.81%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 13:40
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -5.50%E -2.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:48
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -5.50%E -2.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:53
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -5.50%E -2.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.65%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.53%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.82%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-04 13:34
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -9.33%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-04 13:30
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.02%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.72%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.25%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 13:39
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 13:30
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 13:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 13:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -6.98%E -2.58%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-04 13:29
Bovada🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.12%EV -7.67%E -2.86%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.64%EV -5.09%E -2.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.24%EV -4.62%E -1.14%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-04 14:32
Marathon Bet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.78%EV -7.67%E -2.86%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.62%EV -5.92%E -2.65%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.60%EV -6.98%E -1.77%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-04 13:48
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.09%EV -8.01%E -3.00%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.95%EV -8.86%E -4.09%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.96%EV -10.51%E -2.77%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-04 13:35
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.41%EV -8.70%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.70%EV -5.50%E -2.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.89%EV -3.44%E -0.840%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 14:30
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -8.70%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.47%EV -5.50%E -2.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-04 14:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.79%EV -8.70%E -3.28%K -5.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -11.80%E -5.62%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.57%EV -10.51%E -2.77%K -3.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.38%EV -9.39%E -3.57%K -5.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -5.50%E -2.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-04 14:25
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.74%E -3.72%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.30%EV -5.50%E -2.45%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 14:25
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.74%E -3.72%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.41%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.79%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-04 13:40
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -10.42%E -4.01%K -6.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -7.60%E -3.46%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -5.80%E -1.45%K -1.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 13:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 34.85%EV -11.46%E -4.46%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 41.27%EV -8.86%E -4.09%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.88%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -12.15%E -4.76%K -7.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.64%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.25%EV -9.33%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-04 13:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -13.87%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-04 13:35
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.34%EV -13.87%E -5.55%K -9.25%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -9.70%E -4.51%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.56%EV -11.69%E -3.12%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-04 14:25
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.04%EV -17.31%E -7.21%K -12.37%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.19%EV -11.80%E -5.62%K -10.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.76%EV -10.51%E -2.77%K -3.75%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-04 13:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.08%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01%1.1%2026-09-04 14:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.08%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01%1.1%2026-09-04 14:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.82I 35.46%NM 35.08%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.92%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.01%1.1%2026-09-04 14:35
Kalshi2.78I 35.97%NM 35.31%2.33I 42.92%NM 42.13%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.56%1.9%2026-09-04 14:30
Smarkets2.78I 35.97%NM 35.15%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.12%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.73%2.3%2026-09-04 14:35