Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

NAC Breda v Sparta Rotterdam

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 14:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

NAC Breda (Local)

Prediction 42.73%2.34fair odd
EV -1.72%
Edge -0.746%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.73%42.71%42.74%43.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.182.3050.00%46.00%45.87%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sparta Rotterdam (Visit)

Prediction 30.34%3.30fair odd
EV -0.798%
Edge -0.244%
Kelly -0.352%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.16%30.36%30.33%31.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.083.103.2735.71%32.50%32.26%30.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.93%3.71fair odd
EV -3.05%
Edge -0.847%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.09%26.93%26.93%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.443.453.6033.33%29.09%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: NAC Breda (Local): 42.73%; Sparta Rotterdam (Visit): 30.34%; Draw: 26.93%. For Sparta Rotterdam (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.27, with an expected value of -0.798%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.25%EV -1.72%E -0.746%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.37%EV -2.92%E -0.913%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.38%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-05 14:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.25%EV -1.72%E -0.746%K -1.32%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.37%EV -2.92%E -0.913%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.38%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-05 14:30
1xBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.13%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.68%EV -0.798%E -0.244%K -0.352%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%EV -3.86%E -1.08%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-05 14:35
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.54%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.87%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.59%EV -3.05%E -0.847%K -1.17%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-05 14:29
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 14:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 14:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.99%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 14:30
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.73%EV -3.85%E -1.71%K -3.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.83%EV -10.51%E -3.56%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.45%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-05 14:18
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.15%EV -4.28%E -1.91%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.93%EV -2.01%E -0.623%K -0.902%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.92%EV -3.32%E -0.924%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-05 14:30
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.37%EV -4.71%E -2.11%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.76%EV -1.40%E -0.432%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.87%EV -3.05%E -0.847%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-05 14:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.21%EV -4.71%E -2.11%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -1.40%E -0.432%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.14%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-05 14:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.21%EV -4.71%E -2.11%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -1.40%E -0.432%K -0.624%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.14%EV -4.39%E -1.24%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-05 14:30
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -5.14%E -2.31%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 14:39
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -5.14%E -2.31%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -2.92%E -0.913%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 14:30
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -2.92%E -0.913%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 14:20
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.17%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.44%EV -5.35%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -3.05%E -0.847%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-05 14:29
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.97%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.01%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-05 14:40
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -2.92%E -0.913%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-05 14:40
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 14:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 14:30
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-05 14:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 14:30
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 14:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-05 14:30
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -5.99%E -2.72%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 14:40
BetAnything🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.80%EV -6.42%E -2.93%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.04%EV -5.35%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-05 14:30
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.20%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -5.74%E -1.64%K -2.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-05 14:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.77%EV -6.84%E -3.14%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.28%EV -6.56%E -2.13%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.95%EV -6.82%E -1.97%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 14:30
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -7.27%E -3.35%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 14:30
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -7.27%E -3.35%K -6.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.14%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-05 14:30
BetRivers🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.26%EV -7.70%E -3.56%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.66%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.08%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-05 14:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -2.92%E -0.913%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-05 14:40
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.16%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.90%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-05 14:29
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 14:40
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 14:35
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 14:30
TABtouch🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-05 14:30
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 14:39
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 14:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-05 14:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -8.13%E -3.78%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.73%EV -13.54%E -4.75%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.21%EV -7.09%E -2.05%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-05 14:25
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -9.41%E -4.44%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -9.41%E -4.44%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -5.96%E -1.92%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-05 14:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 14:30
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 14:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.19%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-05 14:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-05 14:25
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -12.47%E -3.84%K -5.54%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-05 14:40
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -12.63%E -4.39%K -6.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-05 14:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.54%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -12.02%E -4.15%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -9.78%E -2.92%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-05 14:25
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -10.26%E -4.89%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -15.06%E -5.38%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -8.43%E -2.48%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.7%2026-04-05 14:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.93%EV -11.12%E -5.35%K -10.29%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.58%EV -11.42%E -3.91%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.49%EV -9.24%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-05 14:30
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.04%EV -12.40%E -6.05%K -11.81%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.22%EV -11.42%E -3.91%K -5.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -11.13%E -3.37%K -4.84%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-05 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.00%EV -14.54%E -7.27%K -14.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.00%EV -15.06%E -5.38%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.00%EV -19.21%E -6.40%K -9.60%G +0.000%19.0%2026-04-05 14:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.33%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.32%0.3%2026-04-05 14:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-04-05 14:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-04-05 14:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.28I 43.86%NM 43.38%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.10%1.1%2026-04-05 14:40
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 42.81%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.84%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%1.6%2026-04-05 14:35
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 42.76%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.19%3.0%2026-04-05 14:25