The School of Odds

Heerenveen v FC Twente Enschede

2026-08-09 14:45 — Dutch Eredivisie

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Heerenveen (Local)

Odds
2.8035.71%Min
2.9833.61%Mean
3.0033.33%Median
3.0832.47%Max
Consensus probabilities
30.83%3.243Min
31.46%3.179Max
30.99%3.227Mean
30.99%3.227Median
30.99%3.227IQM
30.99%3.226Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.08 under the IQM model: 30.99%

EV -4.55%Edge -1.48%Kelly -2.19%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: FC Twente Enschede (Visit)

Odds
1.9451.55%Min
2.0748.38%Mean
2.0947.85%Median
2.1646.30%Max
Consensus probabilities
44.37%2.254Min
45.41%2.202Max
44.38%2.253Mean
44.38%2.253Median
44.38%2.253IQM
44.38%2.253Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.16 under the IQM model: 44.38%

EV -4.14%Edge -1.92%Kelly -3.57%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
3.5028.57%Min
3.8226.16%Mean
3.8026.32%Median
4.0025.00%Max
Consensus probabilities
23.60%4.238Min
24.73%4.044Max
24.63%4.060Mean
24.63%4.060Median
24.63%4.060IQM
24.63%4.061Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 4.00 under the IQM model: 24.63%

EV -1.48%Edge -0.370%Kelly -0.494%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

BookmakerHeerenveen (Local) ▼FC Twente Enschede (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet3.08I 32.47% NM 31.12%EV -4.55% E -1.48% K -2.19% G +0.000%2.16I 46.30% NM 44.37%EV -4.14% E -1.92% K -3.57% G +0.000%3.91I 25.58% NM 24.51%EV -3.70% E -0.946% K -1.27% G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-05 14:14
SportsBet3.05I 32.79% NM 30.97%EV -5.48% E -1.80% K -2.67% G +0.000%2.08I 48.08% NM 45.41%EV -7.69% E -3.70% K -7.12% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.62%EV -1.48% E -0.370% K -0.494% G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-05 12:05
Betr (AU)3.00I 33.33% NM 31.46%EV -7.03% E -2.34% K -3.51% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.94%EV -6.80% E -3.24% K -6.19% G +0.000%4.00I 25.00% NM 23.60%EV -1.48% E -0.370% K -0.494% G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-05 12:04
Marathon Bet3.00I 33.33% NM 31.07%EV -7.03% E -2.34% K -3.51% G +0.000%2.10I 47.62% NM 44.39%EV -6.80% E -3.24% K -6.19% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 24.53%EV -6.41% E -1.69% K -2.29% G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-05 14:05
Codere (IT)3.00I 33.33% NM 30.91%EV -7.03% E -2.34% K -3.51% G +0.000%2.09I 47.85% NM 44.37%EV -7.25% E -3.47% K -6.65% G +0.000%3.75I 26.67% NM 24.73%EV -7.64% E -2.04% K -2.78% G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-05 12:05
Paddy Power2.90I 34.48% NM 31.12%EV -10.12% E -3.49% K -5.33% G +0.000%2.00I 50.00% NM 45.13%EV -11.24% E -5.62% K -11.24% G +0.000%3.80I 26.32% NM 23.75%EV -6.41% E -1.69% K -2.29% G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-05 12:01
Unibet (FR)2.80I 35.71% NM 30.83%EV -13.22% E -4.72% K -7.35% G +0.000%1.94I 51.55% NM 44.50%EV -13.90% E -7.17% K -14.79% G +0.000%3.50I 28.57% NM 24.67%EV -13.80% E -3.94% K -5.52% G +0.000%15.8%2026-07-05 12:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerHeerenveen (Local)FC Twente Enschede (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.76I 36.23%1.98I 50.51%3.40I 29.41%16.1%2026-07-05 12:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-07-05 12:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-07-05 12:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%1.04I 96.15%1.01I 99.01%191.3%2026-07-05 12:15