Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Groningen v FC Utrecht

Inicio: 2026-08-09 12:30 UTC

Final: Groningen 2–1 FC Utrecht

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Groningen (Local)

Predicción 42.79%2.34momio equitativo
EV -0.301%
Ventaja -0.129%
Kelly -0.226%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.33

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.34%42.71%42.73%43.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.052.182.202.3348.78%45.86%45.45%42.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Utrecht (Visitante)

Predicción 30.09%3.32momio equitativo
EV +0.799%
Ventaja +0.238%
Kelly +0.340%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.85%30.20%30.18%31.93%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.103.103.3534.72%32.30%32.26%29.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.12%3.69momio equitativo
EV -2.36%
Ventaja -0.656%
Kelly -0.909%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.55%27.09%27.09%28.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.203.413.453.6031.25%29.33%28.99%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Groningen (Local): 42.79%; FC Utrecht (Visitante): 30.09%; Empate: 27.12%. Para FC Utrecht (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.32. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.35, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.799%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.60%EV -4.58%E -2.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.02%EV +0.799%E +0.238%K +0.340%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -3.72%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-09 12:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.60%EV -4.58%E -2.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.02%EV +0.799%E +0.238%K +0.340%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -3.72%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-09 12:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.60%EV -4.58%E -2.05%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.02%EV +0.799%E +0.238%K +0.340%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.39%EV -3.72%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-09 12:15
BetAnything🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.39%EV -5.01%E -2.26%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.55%EV -1.91%E -0.586%K -0.845%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.06%EV -3.45%E -0.968%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-09 12:24
Pinnacle🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 43.35%EV -5.01%E -2.26%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.61%EV -2.21%E -0.680%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.03%EV -3.45%E -0.968%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-09 12:20
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.54%EV -7.15%E -3.29%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -2.21%E -0.680%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.39%EV -6.43%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-09 12:15
BetUS🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.09%EV -1.58%E -0.689%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.66%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-09 11:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.06%EV -1.58%E -0.689%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.23%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.72%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-09 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 42.06%EV -1.58%E -0.689%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.23%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.72%EV -5.35%E -1.53%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-09 11:40
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -5.86%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:15
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -5.01%E -2.26%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -6.43%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:25
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.79%EV -5.01%E -2.26%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.53%EV -6.43%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:24
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -8.00%E -3.72%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 12:05
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -8.00%E -3.72%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 12:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.51%EV -8.43%E -3.94%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 12:15
Casumo🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.51%EV -8.43%E -3.94%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 12:15
betPARX🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.51%EV -8.43%E -3.94%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.10%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-09 12:15
Unibet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.34%EV -8.43%E -3.94%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -3.71%E -1.16%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -9.14%E -2.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-09 12:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.01%EV -7.15%E -3.29%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.54%EV -4.92%E -1.56%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-09 12:24
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -5.86%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.90%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%EV -6.43%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-09 12:19
Bovada🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.03%EV -6.72%E -3.08%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.19%EV -6.43%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-09 12:13
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -8.00%E -3.72%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.43%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-09 12:20
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.42%EV -10.14%E -4.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.95%EV -5.22%E -1.66%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.50%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-09 12:15
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.17%EV -5.86%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.44%EV -6.12%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.36%E -0.656%K -0.909%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:25
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.17%EV -5.86%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.44%EV -6.12%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -2.36%E -0.656%K -0.909%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:24
1xBet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 41.63%EV -0.301%E -0.129%K -0.226%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.19%EV -6.42%E -2.07%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%EV -3.18%E -0.890%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-09 12:25
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:05
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.22%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.64%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-09 12:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.79%E -2.29%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-09 12:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -5.86%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 12:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.38%EV -5.01%E -2.26%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.27%EV -6.43%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 12:05
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -10.14%E -4.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.86%E -3.65%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-09 12:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.20%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -13.21%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 12:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.20%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -13.21%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 12:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.20%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -6.72%E -2.17%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -13.21%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 12:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.78%EV -9.29%E -4.38%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.74%EV -8.23%E -2.70%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.48%EV -10.50%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-09 12:15
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.24%EV -12.28%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -8.23%E -2.70%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.70%EV -13.21%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-09 12:15
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.57%EV -1.58%E -0.689%K -1.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.87%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -2.36%E -0.656%K -0.909%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-09 10:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-09 04:05
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -8.00%E -3.72%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-09 12:15
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -5.86%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -9.14%E -2.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-09 12:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.98%EV -10.14%E -4.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.08%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -9.14%E -2.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-09 12:05
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.14%E -4.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.50%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 11:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -10.14%E -4.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.50%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-09 12:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.15%EV -11.43%E -5.52%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.78%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -10.50%E -3.18%K -4.56%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-09 12:15
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.44%EV -10.14%E -4.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.71%EV -9.73%E -3.24%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.85%EV -13.21%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-09 12:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.12%EV -5.86%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -11.24%E -3.81%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-09 11:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.09%EV -10.14%E -4.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -11.24%E -3.81%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.23%EV -6.43%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-09 12:05
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -5.86%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -12.74%E -4.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -6.43%E -1.86%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-09 11:54
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.74%E -4.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -13.21%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 06:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.74%E -4.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -13.21%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 06:20
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.74%E -4.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -13.21%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 06:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.34%EV -3.72%E -1.65%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.30%EV -12.74%E -4.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.36%EV -13.21%E -4.13%K -6.01%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-09 06:20
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.62%EV -12.28%E -5.99%K -11.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.83%EV -12.74%E -4.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.55%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-09 12:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.54%EV -10.14%E -4.83%K -9.22%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.80%EV -12.74%E -4.39%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -9.14%E -2.73%K -3.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-09 12:05
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.80%EV -5.86%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.93%EV -13.34%E -4.63%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -5.08%E -1.45%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-09 11:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-08-09 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-08-09 12:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-08-09 12:20
Matchbook2.30I 43.48%NM 43.16%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.64%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.20%0.7%2026-08-09 12:25
Smarkets2.30I 43.48%NM 43.00%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.52%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-08-09 12:20
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.15%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.41%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-08-09 12:15