Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Groningen v FC Twente Enschede

Inicio: 2026-09-06 10:15 UTC

Final: Groningen 2–2 FC Twente Enschede

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Groningen (Local)

Predicción 26.74%3.74momio equitativo
EV +1.63%
Ventaja +0.429%
Kelly +0.582%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.53%26.81%26.75%28.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.473.453.8032.26%28.81%28.99%26.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Twente Enschede (Visitante)

Predicción 49.47%2.02momio equitativo
EV -2.05%
Ventaja -1.04%
Kelly -2.10%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.98

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
47.69%49.46%49.41%50.94%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.781.881.881.9856.18%53.08%53.05%50.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.79%4.20momio equitativo
EV -0.092%
Ventaja -0.022%
Kelly -0.029%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.16%23.74%23.84%24.69%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.893.904.2027.78%25.68%25.64%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Groningen (Local): 26.74%; FC Twente Enschede (Visitante): 49.47%; Empate: 23.79%. Para Groningen (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.74. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.80, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.63%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV +1.63%E +0.429%K +0.582%G +0.009%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -9.47%E -5.18%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-06 10:00
1xBet🎯3.73I 26.81%NM 26.02%EV -0.243%E -0.065%K -0.089%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -5.02%E -2.62%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 23.44%EV -1.52%E -0.367%K -0.484%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-06 10:10
Pinnacle🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV -1.04%E -0.282%K -0.387%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 50.05%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.85%EV -3.66%E -0.904%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-06 10:05
NordicBet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -1.04%E -0.282%K -0.387%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.83%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -8.42%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 10:09
Betsson🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.59%EV -1.04%E -0.282%K -0.387%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.83%EV -6.01%E -3.16%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.59%EV -8.42%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-06 10:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 26.15%EV -1.85%E -0.503%K -0.692%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.73%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.12%EV -5.32%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 10:05
LowVig.ag🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 26.15%EV -1.85%E -0.503%K -0.692%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.73%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.12%EV -5.32%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 10:00
BetAnything🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 26.15%EV -1.85%E -0.503%K -0.692%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.73%EV -4.53%E -2.35%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 24.12%EV -5.32%E -1.34%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-06 10:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.58%EV -2.38%E -0.653%K -0.899%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.75%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.66%EV -2.47%E -0.603%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-06 09:40
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.58%EV -2.38%E -0.653%K -0.899%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.75%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.66%EV -2.47%E -0.603%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-06 10:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.58%EV -2.38%E -0.653%K -0.899%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.75%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.66%EV -2.47%E -0.603%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-06 10:00
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.90%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -0.092%E -0.022%K -0.029%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 10:08
betano_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.44%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.90%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -0.092%E -0.022%K -0.029%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-06 10:10
Bovada🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-06 10:10
FanDuel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-06 09:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -3.72%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 50.16%EV -7.99%E -4.30%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 10:10
DraftKings🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -5.06%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.61%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-06 10:10
BetUS🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -5.06%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -6.51%E -3.44%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-06 10:05
PlayUp🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -5.06%E -1.42%K -1.98%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.24%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.69%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-06 10:10
Grosvenor🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.04%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.30%EV -5.02%E -2.62%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 10:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 09:55
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-06 09:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.15%EV -5.02%E -2.62%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -6.04%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-06 09:55
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-06 10:10
SportsBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -7.00%E -3.72%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-06 09:55
Paddy Power🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -6.39%E -1.83%K -2.56%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -11.99%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-06 10:10
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -6.51%E -3.44%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 10:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -6.51%E -3.44%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 09:59
betPARX🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -7.73%E -2.24%K -3.16%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -6.51%E -3.44%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-06 10:05
Betclic (FR)🎯3.42I 29.24%NM 26.59%EV -8.53%E -2.50%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.97%EV -9.97%E -5.48%K -12.16%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.44%EV -7.70%E -1.99%K -2.67%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 09:55
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.03%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.14%EV -2.05%E -1.04%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-06 09:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-06 09:50
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 08:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 08:35
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-06 08:35
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.86%EV -6.51%E -3.44%K -7.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.98%EV -8.42%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-06 10:00
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.48%E -4.59%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 10:10
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.48%E -4.59%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 10:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.48%E -4.59%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 10:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -8.48%E -4.59%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-06 10:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -9.47%E -5.18%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-06 10:05
Sky Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -9.07%E -2.67%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -14.36%E -3.99%K -5.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-06 10:10
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.14%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.62%EV -7.50%E -4.01%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-06 09:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.89%EV -8.48%E -4.59%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 10:00
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.89%EV -8.48%E -4.59%K -9.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-06 10:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -10.41%E -3.11%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.16%EV -11.95%E -6.71%K -15.32%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -8.42%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 09:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.83%EV -3.54%E -1.81%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-06 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.70%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.15%EV -7.99%E -4.30%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.14%EV -6.04%E -1.53%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-06 09:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.66%EV -8.98%E -4.88%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -11.99%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 09:40
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.13%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.66%EV -8.98%E -4.88%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -11.99%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-06 09:40
NetBet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.09%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 49.39%EV -10.46%E -5.78%K -12.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -9.61%E -2.53%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-06 10:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.74%E -3.56%K -5.11%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.47%E -5.18%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.99%E -3.24%K -4.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-06 09:40
Bet Right🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -13.08%E -4.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.86%EV -5.02%E -2.62%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.87%EV -8.42%E -2.19%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-06 09:50
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.03%EV -13.08%E -4.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.69%EV -5.52%E -2.89%K -6.06%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -10.80%E -2.88%K -3.93%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-06 09:50
Winamax (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.08%E -4.02%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.07%EV -8.98%E -4.88%K -10.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -7.23%E -1.85%K -2.49%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-06 09:55
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -17.09%E -5.51%K -8.14%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -10.96%E -6.09%K -13.70%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -4.85%E -1.21%K -1.62%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-06 10:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎3.95I 25.32%NM 25.26%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.40%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.34%0.2%2026-09-06 10:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.36%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-09-06 10:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.36%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-09-06 10:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44%1.97I 50.76%NM 50.36%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-09-06 10:10
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%2.0%2026-09-06 10:10
Smarkets◎3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.73%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.49%2.1%2026-09-06 10:10