Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Go Ahead Eagles v NAC Breda

Inicio: 2026-03-15 15:45 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Go Ahead Eagles (Local)

Predicción 44.30%2.26momio equitativo
EV -3.43%
Ventaja -1.58%
Kelly -2.91%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.18

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.86%44.35%44.23%46.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.852.092.102.1854.05%47.77%47.62%45.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

NAC Breda (Visitante)

Predicción 28.80%3.47momio equitativo
EV +0.797%
Ventaja +0.228%
Kelly +0.319%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.67%28.81%28.81%30.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.953.243.253.5033.90%30.91%30.77%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 26.90%3.72momio equitativo
EV +0.892%
Ventaja +0.238%
Kelly +0.324%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.52%26.85%26.96%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.453.503.7533.33%29.02%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Go Ahead Eagles (Local): 44.30%; NAC Breda (Visitante): 28.80%; Empate: 26.90%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.72. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.892%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.10%EV -3.88%E -1.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.38%EV -9.28%E -2.95%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.52%EV +0.892%E +0.238%K +0.324%G +0.003%4.5%2026-03-15 12:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%EV -3.43%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.64%EV -2.08%E -0.613%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.68%EV -1.80%E -0.493%K -0.679%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-15 14:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%EV -3.43%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.54%EV -2.08%E -0.613%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -3.14%E -0.873%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-15 12:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%EV -3.43%E -1.58%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.54%EV -2.08%E -0.613%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.95%EV -3.14%E -0.873%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-15 12:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.62%EV -3.88%E -1.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.48%EV -2.08%E -0.613%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.873%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-15 14:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.62%EV -3.88%E -1.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.48%EV -2.08%E -0.613%K -0.868%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.90%EV -3.14%E -0.873%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-15 14:50
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 45.08%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.85%EV +0.221%E +0.063%K +0.089%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 27.07%EV -3.68%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-15 15:40
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.60%EV -3.88%E -1.79%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.30%EV -1.51%E -0.441%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.11%EV -3.95%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-15 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -6.09%E -2.87%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.49%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 14:50
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -6.09%E -2.87%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.49%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 09:50
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.84%EV -6.09%E -2.87%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.38%EV -3.52%E -1.05%K -1.50%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -4.49%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-15 09:45
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.28%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.51%EV -12.16%E -3.99%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -4.49%E -1.26%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-15 12:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 14:55
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 15:10
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-15 15:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.37%EV -5.65%E -2.65%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.00%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 15:00
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-15 09:45
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.48%EV -6.09%E -2.87%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.94%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-15 14:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 09:50
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 09:50
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 09:50
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 14:39
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 14:50
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 14:50
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 14:50
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 13:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.41%E -5.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV +0.797%E +0.228%K +0.319%G +0.003%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 15:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 12:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -5.83%E -1.67%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 12:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.62%EV -7.42%E -3.55%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.43%EV -5.54%E -1.69%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.95%EV -6.91%E -2.00%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 15:35
Bovada🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.42%EV -6.53%E -3.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.18%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-15 15:34
BetUS🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.42%EV -6.53%E -3.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.18%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-15 15:35
BetAnything🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.42%EV -6.53%E -3.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -7.18%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-15 15:35
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.59%EV -7.86%E -3.78%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -7.18%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-15 14:50
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.59%EV -7.86%E -3.78%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.53%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.88%EV -7.18%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-15 15:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.63%EV -8.75%E -4.25%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.73%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.65%EV -7.18%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-15 13:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.34%EV -9.19%E -4.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -7.18%E -2.08%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-15 15:00
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 14:40
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -4.96%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 14:55
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 14:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.69%EV -9.64%E -4.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-15 14:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.69%EV -9.64%E -4.72%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.49%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.82%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-15 14:50
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -9.19%E -4.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -8.52%E -2.51%K -3.55%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-15 11:58
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.99%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -6.40%E -1.97%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-15 11:55
Fliff🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.19%E -4.48%K -8.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.44%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-15 15:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.26%EV -12.74%E -6.47%K -13.13%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 28.13%EV -8.71%E -2.75%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.61%EV -9.87%E -2.95%K -4.20%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-15 15:19
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 09:45
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 09:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 09:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -6.98%E -3.32%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-15 09:45
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -11.41%E -5.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -7.84%E -2.45%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-15 14:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.00%EV -11.41%E -5.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.33%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-15 15:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.17%EV -14.06%E -7.25%K -14.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.56%EV -11.22%E -3.40%K -4.88%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-15 15:20
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -11.41%E -5.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%13.0%2026-03-15 14:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.25%EV -14.95%E -7.79%K -16.25%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.02%EV -10.72%E -3.46%K -5.11%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.73%EV -12.56%E -3.86%K -5.58%G +0.000%15.1%2026-03-15 15:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 44.97%EV -18.05%E -9.76%K -21.24%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.20%EV -15.04%E -5.10%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.83%EV -16.60%E -5.35%K -7.90%G +0.000%20.2%2026-03-15 14:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -11.41%E -5.70%K -11.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -13.60%E -4.53%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -19.29%E -6.43%K -9.64%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-15 14:00
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.22I 45.05%NM 44.77%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.23%0.6%2026-03-15 15:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.88%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-03-15 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.88%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-03-15 15:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.88%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%1.0%2026-03-15 15:35
Smarkets2.18I 45.87%NM 45.05%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.67%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.28%1.8%2026-03-15 15:35
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 44.71%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.12%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.17%3.1%2026-03-15 12:00