Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Go Ahead Eagles v Groningen

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 16:45 UTC

Final: Go Ahead Eagles 1–1 Groningen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Go Ahead Eagles (Local)

Prediction 41.17%2.43fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.843%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.53%41.21%41.15%43.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3847.62%44.41%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Groningen (Visit)

Prediction 34.60%2.89fair odd
EV +0.003%
Edge +0.001%
Kelly +0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.19%34.60%34.64%36.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.702.702.8941.67%37.07%37.04%34.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.22%4.13fair odd
EV +1.01%
Edge +0.243%
Kelly +0.319%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.76%24.19%24.21%25.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.843.824.1727.78%26.06%26.18%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Go Ahead Eagles (Local): 41.17%; Groningen (Visit): 34.60%; Draw: 24.22%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.13. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.80%EV -9.83%E -4.49%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.19%EV +0.003%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.00%EV +1.01%E +0.243%K +0.319%G +0.003%4.2%2026-09-12 16:40
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.25%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.57%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -0.684%E -0.167%K -0.221%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:39
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.25%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.57%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -0.684%E -0.167%K -0.221%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:40
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 12:20
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.53%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 16:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.77%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 16:21
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.85%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.33%EV -3.24%E -1.38%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.08%EV -1.38%E -0.484%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.32%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-12 16:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.33%EV -3.24%E -1.38%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.08%EV -1.38%E -0.484%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.32%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-12 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.33%EV -3.24%E -1.38%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.08%EV -1.38%E -0.484%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.32%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-12 16:05
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:41
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.11%EV -3.80%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 16:41
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.11%EV -3.80%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 16:41
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 16:19
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.00%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -11.76%E -4.61%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.24%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.09%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 16:35
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -11.76%E -4.61%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.64%EV -2.01%E -0.843%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.18%EV -2.07%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.19%EV -6.98%E -1.82%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-12 16:41
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -7.47%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 03:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -7.47%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 03:45
BetUS🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -7.47%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 03:44
BetAnything🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -7.47%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.70%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 16:41
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.37%EV -13.54%E -6.45%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.03%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-12 16:20
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.19%EV -13.54%E -6.45%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.04%EV -16.95%E -7.06%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.76%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-12 16:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -6.23%E -2.30%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.67%EV -8.44%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 16:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%EV -12.71%E -6.00%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.31%EV -10.03%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.60%EV -8.44%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 16:19
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 16:05
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 16:05
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 16:41
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.27%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.52%EV -8.99%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 16:31
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:41
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:40
Bovada🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.06%EV -4.49%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -10.37%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:34
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -10.37%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 16:05
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.54%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -10.37%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 14:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.30%EV -10.65%E -4.91%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -10.03%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.22%EV -10.37%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 16:41
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -8.18%E -3.67%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 16:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 16:05
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.33%EV -10.65%E -4.91%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.10%EV -8.99%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 16:41
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -10.03%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -12.80%E -3.55%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 16:21
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.38I 42.02%NM 41.84%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.29%0.4%2026-09-12 16:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-09-12 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.38I 42.02%NM 41.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-09-12 16:41
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 40.60%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.64%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-12 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.25%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.61%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-09-12 16:41
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 41.00%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.60%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.40%2.5%2026-09-12 16:41