Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Go Ahead Eagles v Groningen

Inicio: 2026-09-12 16:45 UTC

Final: Go Ahead Eagles 1–1 Groningen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Go Ahead Eagles (Local)

Predicción 41.17%2.43momio equitativo
EV -2.01%
Ventaja -0.843%
Kelly -1.45%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.38

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
40.53%41.21%41.15%43.80%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.102.252.252.3847.62%44.41%44.44%42.02%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Groningen (Visitante)

Predicción 34.60%2.89momio equitativo
EV +0.003%
Ventaja +0.001%
Kelly +0.002%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.89

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
33.19%34.60%34.64%36.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.702.702.8941.67%37.07%37.04%34.60%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.22%4.13momio equitativo
EV +1.01%
Ventaja +0.243%
Kelly +0.319%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.17

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.76%24.19%24.21%25.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.843.824.1727.78%26.06%26.18%23.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Go Ahead Eagles (Local): 41.17%; Groningen (Visitante): 34.60%; Empate: 24.22%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.13. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.17, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.01%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.80%EV -9.83%E -4.49%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.19%EV +0.003%E +0.001%K +0.002%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.00%EV +1.01%E +0.243%K +0.319%G +0.003%4.2%2026-09-12 16:40
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.25%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.57%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -0.684%E -0.167%K -0.221%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:39
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.25%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.57%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -0.684%E -0.167%K -0.221%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:40
Coolbet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-07 12:20
Fanatics🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.68%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.85%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.21%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 14:20
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.53%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 16:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.48%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-12 14:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.77%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.79%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-12 16:21
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.85%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.14%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.02%EV -3.11%E -0.777%K -1.04%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.33%EV -3.24%E -1.38%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.08%EV -1.38%E -0.484%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.32%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-12 16:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.33%EV -3.24%E -1.38%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.08%EV -1.38%E -0.484%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.32%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-12 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.33%EV -3.24%E -1.38%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 34.08%EV -1.38%E -0.484%K -0.746%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.59%EV -4.32%E -1.09%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-12 16:05
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.94%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.37%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-12 16:41
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.11%EV -3.80%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 16:41
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.58%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.11%EV -3.80%E -1.37%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-12 16:41
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-07 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 14:20
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.96%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.89%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-12 16:19
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.57%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.94%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.00%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.78%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.55%EV -11.76%E -4.61%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.24%EV -5.53%E -1.42%K -1.91%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.09%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.36%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.55%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-12 16:35
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-12 14:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.44%EV -11.76%E -4.61%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.48%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 14:20
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.64%EV -2.01%E -0.843%K -1.45%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 34.18%EV -2.07%E -0.732%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.19%EV -6.98%E -1.82%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-12 16:41
LowVig.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -7.47%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 03:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -7.47%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 03:45
BetUS🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -7.47%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-09 03:44
BetAnything🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.05%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.01%EV -3.11%E -1.11%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.93%EV -7.47%E -1.95%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-12 14:20
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.70%EV -5.30%E -2.30%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.67%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 16:41
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.49%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.57%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-12 16:20
Unibet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.37%EV -13.54%E -6.45%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.03%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.41%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-12 16:20
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.19%EV -13.54%E -6.45%K -12.31%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.04%EV -16.95%E -7.06%K -12.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.76%EV -7.95%E -2.09%K -2.84%G +0.000%15.6%2026-09-12 16:24
Marathon Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.91%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.42%EV -6.23%E -2.30%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.67%EV -8.44%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-12 16:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.08%EV -12.71%E -6.00%K -11.35%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.31%EV -10.03%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.60%EV -8.44%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-12 16:19
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 16:05
betPARX🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.03%EV -6.12%E -2.69%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -4.84%E -1.76%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.95%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-12 16:05
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-12 16:41
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.27%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.52%EV -8.99%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-12 16:31
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 14:20
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:41
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.21%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.61%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.18%EV -9.16%E -2.44%K -3.33%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-12 16:40
Bovada🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.53%EV -4.48%E -1.93%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.06%EV -4.49%E -1.63%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -10.37%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-12 16:34
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.96%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -6.57%E -2.43%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.91%EV -10.37%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-12 16:05
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.54%EV -7.36%E -3.27%K -5.89%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -9.34%E -3.56%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -10.37%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-12 14:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.30%EV -10.65%E -4.91%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.47%EV -10.03%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.22%EV -10.37%E -2.80%K -3.84%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-12 16:41
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.78%EV -8.18%E -3.67%K -6.65%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.31%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.91%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-12 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 16:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 16:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 16:05
TABtouch🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.10%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.12%EV -8.30%E -3.13%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.77%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-12 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.33%EV -10.65%E -4.91%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.10%EV -8.99%E -3.42%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.57%EV -11.58%E -3.17%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-12 16:41
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -9.42%E -4.28%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.43%EV -10.03%E -3.86%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.87%EV -12.80%E -3.55%K -4.92%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-12 16:21
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.84%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.29%0.4%2026-09-12 16:41
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-09-12 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.65%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-09-12 16:41
Kalshi◎2.44I 40.98%NM 40.60%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.64%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.77%0.9%2026-09-12 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.40I 41.67%NM 41.25%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.61%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.14%1.0%2026-09-12 16:41
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 41.00%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.60%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.40%2.5%2026-09-12 16:41