Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Feyenoord v Excelsior

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Feyenoord (Local)

Prediction 71.70%1.39fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -9.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.23%71.63%71.76%73.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.291.301.3585.47%77.37%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Excelsior (Visit)

Prediction 11.83%8.45fair odd
EV +6.51%
Edge +0.723%
Kelly +0.814%
Growth +0.053%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.61%11.94%11.76%14.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.908.009.0016.00%12.66%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.47%6.07fair odd
EV +8.04%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.45%
Growth +0.116%

assuming max odds 6.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.76%16.44%16.48%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.705.756.5622.22%17.53%17.39%15.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Feyenoord (Local): 71.70%; Excelsior (Visit): 11.83%; Draw: 16.47%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.07. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.56, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.04%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.75%EV -3.21%E -2.38%K -9.17%G +0.000%7.18I 13.93%NM 13.49%EV -15.03%E -2.09%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.56I 15.24%NM 14.76%EV +8.04%E +1.23%K +1.45%G +0.116%3.2%2026-03-15 13:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.91%EV -5.36%E -4.06%K -16.75%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.84%EV +6.51%E +0.723%K +0.814%G +0.053%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.24%EV +5.40%E +0.844%K +1.00%G +0.054%2.5%2026-03-15 13:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.18%EV -5.36%E -4.06%K -16.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.36%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.46%EV +2.93%E +0.469%K +0.559%G +0.016%3.5%2026-03-15 13:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.18%EV -5.36%E -4.06%K -16.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.36%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.46%EV +2.93%E +0.469%K +0.559%G +0.016%3.5%2026-03-15 13:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.63%EV -7.51%E -5.82%K -25.90%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV +2.93%E +0.469%K +0.559%G +0.016%5.3%2026-03-15 13:25
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 73.05%EV -5.36%E -4.06%K -16.75%G +0.000%8.59I 11.64%NM 11.22%EV +1.66%E +0.193%K +0.218%G +0.004%6.13I 16.31%NM 15.73%EV +0.958%E +0.156%K +0.187%G +0.002%3.7%2026-03-15 13:15
Unibet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -7.51%E -5.82%K -25.90%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.13%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.51%EV +0.464%E +0.076%K +0.091%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-15 12:40
LeoVegas🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.23%E -6.43%K -29.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.464%E +0.076%K +0.091%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 13:25
Casumo🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.23%E -6.43%K -29.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.464%E +0.076%K +0.091%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 13:25
betPARX🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.51%EV -8.23%E -6.43%K -29.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.07%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.42%EV +0.464%E +0.076%K +0.091%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-15 13:25
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.66%EV -8.95%E -7.04%K -33.13%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.01%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.34%EV +0.464%E +0.076%K +0.091%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 13:21
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.61%EV +6.51%E +0.723%K +0.814%G +0.053%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.18%E -0.197%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-15 12:59
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.02%EV -8.23%E -6.43%K -29.39%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.40%EV -2.96%E -0.361%K -0.411%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -1.18%E -0.197%K -0.237%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 13:25
Grosvenor🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.47%EV -8.95%E -7.04%K -33.13%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -1.18%E -0.197%K -0.237%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 13:25
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.47%EV -8.95%E -7.04%K -33.13%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.98%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -1.18%E -0.197%K -0.237%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-15 13:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.28%EV -10.38%E -8.30%K -41.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.27%EV -1.18%E -0.197%K -0.237%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-15 13:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.44%EV -11.10%E -8.95%K -46.24%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -1.18%E -0.197%K -0.237%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-15 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.44%EV -11.10%E -8.95%K -46.24%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%EV -1.18%E -0.197%K -0.237%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-15 13:25
Betsson🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.27%EV -6.08%E -4.64%K -19.61%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.55%EV -2.96%E -0.361%K -0.411%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.18%EV -3.65%E -0.625%K -0.753%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-15 13:24
NordicBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.27%EV -6.08%E -4.64%K -19.61%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.55%EV -2.96%E -0.361%K -0.411%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.18%EV -3.65%E -0.625%K -0.753%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-15 13:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.21%EV -4.64%E -3.49%K -14.07%G +0.000%7.60I 13.16%NM 12.46%EV -10.06%E -1.32%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV -4.48%E -0.772%K -0.933%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-15 13:05
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.58%EV -8.95%E -7.04%K -33.13%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.89%EV -4.48%E -0.772%K -0.933%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-15 13:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.91%EV -3.93%E -2.93%K -11.55%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.34%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.76%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-15 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.44%EV -5.36%E -4.06%K -16.75%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.93%EV +3.55%E +0.406%K +0.458%G +0.016%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.63%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-15 13:25
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.71%EV -5.36%E -4.06%K -16.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.83%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.46%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-15 13:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -4.64%E -3.49%K -14.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -11.24%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-15 13:25
Fanatics🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.86%EV -6.08%E -4.64%K -19.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 13:25
Bovada🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 13:13
BetUS🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 13:10
BetAnything🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.02%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.28%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-15 13:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.27%EV -7.51%E -5.82%K -25.90%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.51%EV -4.14%E -0.511%K -0.583%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-15 13:25
Everygame🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.33%EV -8.23%E -6.43%K -29.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.57%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.10%EV -5.30%E -0.922%K -1.12%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 13:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.55%EV -7.51%E -5.82%K -25.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.48%EV -20.12%E -2.98%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.97%EV -6.12%E -1.07%K -1.30%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-15 13:05
Coolbet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -4.64%E -3.49%K -14.07%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-15 13:25
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -3.21%E -2.38%K -9.17%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -11.24%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.22%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-15 13:25
BetMGM🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.59%EV -3.93%E -2.93%K -11.55%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.21%EV -8.28%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-15 13:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.46%EV -4.64%E -3.49%K -14.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.50%EV -11.24%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-15 13:25
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.22%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.95%EV -8.28%E -1.07%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.83%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-15 13:20
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.29%EV -8.23%E -6.43%K -29.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV +0.591%E +0.070%K +0.079%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-15 13:25
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.94%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.30%EV -11.24%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-15 04:30
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -17.16%E -2.45%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 13:25
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -17.16%E -2.45%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 13:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -17.16%E -2.45%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 13:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -17.16%E -2.45%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 13:25
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -6.79%E -5.23%K -22.65%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -17.16%E -2.45%K -2.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -9.42%E -1.71%K -2.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 13:14
Betclic (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.07%EV -9.66%E -7.67%K -37.16%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.35%EV -14.20%E -1.96%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.58%EV -11.07%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-15 13:03
NetBet (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.09%EV -12.53%E -10.27%K -56.96%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.85%EV -20.12%E -2.98%K -3.50%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.06%EV -11.07%E -2.05%K -2.51%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-15 13:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.31%EV -8.95%E -7.04%K -33.13%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.08%EV -26.04%E -4.17%K -4.96%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.61%EV -12.71%E -2.40%K -2.96%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-15 13:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -4.64%E -3.49%K -14.07%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -13.54%E -2.58%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-15 13:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.85%EV -5.36%E -4.06%K -16.75%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.34%EV -2.37%E -0.287%K -0.327%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -13.54%E -2.58%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-15 13:25
Bet Right🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.76%EV -6.08%E -4.64%K -19.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.59%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -13.54%E -2.58%K -3.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-15 13:15
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.35%EV -10.38%E -8.30%K -41.52%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.74%EV -18.34%E -2.66%K -3.11%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.91%EV -14.36%E -2.76%K -3.42%G +0.000%13.7%2026-03-15 13:05
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.38%E -8.30%K -41.52%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -5.33%E -0.666%K -0.761%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -17.65%E -3.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-15 13:25
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.38%E -8.30%K -41.52%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.76%EV -11.24%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -17.65%E -3.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%13.3%2026-03-15 13:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 71.67%EV -16.12%E -13.77%K -94.80%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 11.57%EV -14.20%E -1.96%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.77%EV -17.65%E -3.53%K -4.41%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-15 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 69.23%EV -10.38%E -8.30%K -41.52%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.54%EV -11.24%E -1.50%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -25.89%E -5.75%K -7.40%G +0.000%15.6%2026-03-15 13:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.62%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.03%0.6%2026-03-15 13:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 73.62%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.35%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.03%0.6%2026-03-15 13:25
Matchbook1.34I 74.63%NM 73.92%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.11%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.98%1.0%2026-03-15 13:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.33I 75.19%NM 73.91%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.24%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.85%1.7%2026-03-15 13:25
Smarkets1.32I 75.76%NM 74.05%9.60I 10.42%NM 10.18%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.77%2.3%2026-03-15 13:25
Kalshi1.32I 75.76%NM 73.72%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.71%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.57%2.8%2026-03-15 13:25