Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Feyenoord v Ajax

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Feyenoord (Local)

Prediction 49.36%2.03fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -3.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.84%49.33%49.45%50.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.891.911.9658.82%52.90%52.36%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ajax (Visit)

Prediction 26.66%3.75fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.363%
Kelly -0.498%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.32%26.65%26.59%27.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.473.503.7031.75%28.78%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.97%4.17fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -0.904%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%24.02%23.96%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.843.904.0230.77%26.02%25.64%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Feyenoord (Local): 49.36%; Ajax (Visit): 26.66%; Draw: 23.97%. For Ajax (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.75. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.70, with an expected value of -1.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.97%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.04%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 12:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.97%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.04%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 12:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.97%EV -3.24%E -1.66%K -3.38%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.04%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.99%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-22 12:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.64%EV -3.74%E -1.92%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.16%EV -1.34%E -0.363%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.20%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-22 13:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.64%EV -3.74%E -1.92%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.16%EV -1.34%E -0.363%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.20%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-22 13:00
NordicBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.74%E -1.92%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.31%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 10:59
Betsson🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.74%E -1.92%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.89%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -5.31%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-22 11:00
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -3.74%E -1.92%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 05:29
Pinnacle🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.96%EV -4.73%E -2.45%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -1.34%E -0.363%K -0.498%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.98%EV -3.64%E -0.904%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 13:00
1xBet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.68%EV -4.73%E -2.45%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.05%EV -1.88%E -0.510%K -0.700%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.31%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-22 12:49
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.54%EV -4.73%E -2.45%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.56%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.90%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-22 12:58
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.02%EV -4.73%E -2.45%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -5.31%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 12:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.02%EV -4.73%E -2.45%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.95%EV -5.31%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-22 12:50
Coolbet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.67%EV -5.22%E -2.72%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.49%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -4.11%E -1.03%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-22 12:49
Codere (IT)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.15%EV -5.22%E -2.72%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.89%EV -5.31%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-22 05:44
LeoVegas🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.81%EV -5.22%E -2.72%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 12:50
Casumo🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.81%EV -5.22%E -2.72%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 12:50
betPARX🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.81%EV -5.22%E -2.72%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.16%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 12:49
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 10:00
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 09:50
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.47%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -5.31%E -1.35%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 09:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 05:24
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.13%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.81%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.06%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-22 05:45
BetRivers🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.94%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.09%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.97%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-22 12:50
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-22 12:50
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.28%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -10.11%E -2.70%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-22 11:00
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-22 12:00
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-22 11:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-22 12:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -5.71%E -2.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-22 11:59
BetUS🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -6.21%E -3.27%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 13:00
BetAnything🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.45%EV -6.21%E -3.27%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -5.34%E -1.51%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-22 13:00
Everygame🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -6.21%E -3.27%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 12:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -6.21%E -3.27%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-22 10:59
Bet Right🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.07%EV -6.21%E -3.27%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 10:59
Bovada🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.76%EV -6.70%E -3.55%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 12:50
Marathon Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.36%EV -6.70%E -3.55%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.35%EV -5.61%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 24.29%EV -7.95%E -2.07%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-22 12:59
TABtouch🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -6.70%E -3.55%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 12:50
Grosvenor🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.20%EV -6.70%E -3.55%K -7.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -8.01%E -2.32%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-22 12:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.52%EV -7.19%E -3.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-22 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.99%EV -7.19%E -3.83%K -8.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.09%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.92%EV -7.71%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 12:49
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -7.69%E -4.11%K -8.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -4.01%E -1.11%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 12:49
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.48%EV -8.18%E -4.40%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.30%EV -6.68%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-22 12:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.01%EV -8.18%E -4.40%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.37%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-22 05:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.91%EV -8.18%E -4.40%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.15%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 12:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.91%EV -8.18%E -4.40%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.15%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 12:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -8.68%E -4.69%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -1.34%E -0.363%K -0.498%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -6.51%E -1.67%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 12:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.68%EV -9.66%E -5.28%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.58%EV -8.81%E -2.58%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.74%EV -8.19%E -2.14%K -2.89%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-22 05:42
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -9.66%E -5.28%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -10.11%E -2.70%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-22 12:00
Paddy Power🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.19%EV -9.66%E -5.28%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -9.34%E -2.75%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.33%EV -11.31%E -3.06%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-22 12:50
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.66%E -5.28%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.70%E -3.81%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-22 12:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.84%EV -9.66%E -5.28%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79%EV -14.68%E -4.59%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%EV -22.09%E -6.80%K -9.82%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-22 11:00
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -11.14%E -6.19%K -13.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -12.01%E -3.64%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -8.91%E -2.34%K -3.18%G +0.000%12.2%2026-03-22 09:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.75%EV -11.14%E -6.19%K -13.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.86%EV -16.01%E -5.08%K -7.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.40%EV -10.11%E -2.70%K -3.68%G +0.000%14.0%2026-03-22 05:44
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.85%EV -12.13%E -6.81%K -15.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.49%EV -10.68%E -3.19%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.66%EV -10.11%E -2.70%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-22 05:44
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.56%EV -13.61%E -7.78%K -18.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.68%EV -13.34%E -4.11%K -5.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.76%EV -12.50%E -3.43%K -4.72%G +0.000%15.3%2026-03-22 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.23%EV -16.08%E -9.46%K -22.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.15%EV -14.68%E -4.59%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.62%EV -18.50%E -5.44%K -7.71%G +0.000%19.5%2026-03-22 12:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.07%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-03-22 12:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.07%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-03-22 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.07%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.75%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-03-22 13:00
Matchbook1.97I 50.76%NM 50.20%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-03-22 13:00
Kalshi1.96I 51.02%NM 50.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.50%2.0%2026-03-22 13:00
Smarkets1.96I 51.02%NM 49.86%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.72%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.43%2.3%2026-03-22 13:00