Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen

Inicio: 2026-08-29 19:00 UTC

Final: FC Zwolle 1–3 NEC Nijmegen

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Zwolle (Local)

Predicción 28.40%3.52momio equitativo
EV +3.66%
Ventaja +1.00%
Kelly +1.38%
Crecimiento +0.050%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.52%28.32%28.46%29.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.083.323.303.6532.47%30.08%30.30%27.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

NEC Nijmegen (Visitante)

Predicción 48.42%2.07momio equitativo
EV -0.742%
Ventaja -0.362%
Kelly -0.706%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
46.33%48.43%48.48%51.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.791.911.912.0555.87%52.47%52.36%48.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.18%4.31momio equitativo
EV +0.842%
Ventaja +0.194%
Kelly +0.251%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.35

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.16%23.25%23.06%25.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.474.024.004.3528.82%24.87%25.00%22.99%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC Zwolle (Local): 28.40%; NEC Nijmegen (Visitante): 48.42%; Empate: 23.18%. Para FC Zwolle (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.52. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.65, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +3.66%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 26.52%EV +3.66%E +1.00%K +1.38%G +0.050%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.22%EV -8.49%E -4.49%K -9.54%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV +0.842%E +0.194%K +0.251%G +0.002%3.3%2026-08-29 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +2.24%E +0.621%K +0.860%G +0.019%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.09%EV -8.97%E -4.77%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.23%EV +0.147%E +0.034%K +0.044%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +2.24%E +0.621%K +0.860%G +0.019%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.09%EV -8.97%E -4.77%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.23%EV +0.147%E +0.034%K +0.044%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 13:55
BetAnything🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +2.24%E +0.621%K +0.860%G +0.019%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.09%EV -8.97%E -4.77%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.23%EV +0.147%E +0.034%K +0.044%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 14:00
BetUS🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV +2.24%E +0.621%K +0.860%G +0.019%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.09%EV -8.97%E -4.77%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 22.23%EV +0.147%E +0.034%K +0.044%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-29 17:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.65%EV +2.24%E +0.621%K +0.860%G +0.019%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -8.97%E -4.77%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.31%EV -0.317%E -0.074%K -0.096%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.65%EV +2.24%E +0.621%K +0.860%G +0.019%1.88I 53.19%NM 51.04%EV -8.97%E -4.77%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.31%EV -0.317%E -0.074%K -0.096%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-29 18:40
Grosvenor🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.71%EV +0.817%E +0.230%K +0.320%G +0.003%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.71%EV -9.46%E -5.06%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -2.64%E -0.627%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 18:35
Pinnacle🎯3.47I 28.82%NM 27.89%EV -1.45%E -0.419%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 49.12%EV -4.62%E -2.34%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.21I 23.75%NM 22.99%EV -2.40%E -0.571%K -0.749%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-29 18:45
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -2.02%E -0.586%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -10.43%E -5.64%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -2.02%E -0.586%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -10.43%E -5.64%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:35
betPARX🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.98%EV -2.02%E -0.586%K -0.826%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.32%EV -10.43%E -5.64%K -12.27%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.70%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.83%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.52%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 18:40
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.32%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -8.00%E -4.21%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-29 18:40
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -3.44%E -1.01%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.25%EV -10.91%E -5.93%K -12.99%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.55%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 18:40
Betsson🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.65%EV -4.13%E -2.09%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:50
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.65%EV -4.13%E -2.09%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.19%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.06%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.45%EV -6.07%E -3.13%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-29 18:45
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.19%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.04%EV -11.88%E -6.53%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.77%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-29 18:40
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.04%EV -12.36%E -6.83%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.93%EV -8.43%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 18:35
TABtouch🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -4.86%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.04%EV -12.36%E -6.83%K -15.26%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.93%EV -8.43%E -2.13%K -2.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-29 18:35
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.66%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.59%EV -2.64%E -0.627%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-29 18:55
BetMGM🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.64%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.73%EV -4.13%E -2.09%K -4.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.63%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-29 18:50
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:55
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.39%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.02%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-29 18:55
SportsBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.99%EV -5.10%E -2.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 18:55
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:50
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-29 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.97%EV -13.33%E -7.45%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-29 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.97%EV -13.33%E -7.45%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-29 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.97%EV -13.33%E -7.45%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.93%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-29 18:35
1xBet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 29.58%EV -6.85%E -2.09%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.32%EV -0.742%E -0.362%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.10%EV -2.64%E -0.627%K -0.823%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-29 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.26I 30.67%NM 28.63%EV -7.42%E -2.28%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 48.61%EV -7.04%E -3.66%K -7.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -4.95%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 18:55
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.92%EV -5.10%E -2.60%K -5.31%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.19%EV -6.11%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 18:53
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.48%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.47%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.04%EV -10.75%E -2.79%K -3.77%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-29 18:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.42%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-29 18:55
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -11.91%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 18:55
William Hill🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -11.91%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -11.91%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -11.91%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-29 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -7.70%E -2.37%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 49.07%EV -10.91%E -5.93%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.15%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-29 18:39
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -3.16%E -1.58%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -2.64%E -0.627%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 18:55
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.59%EV -3.16%E -1.58%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.66%EV -2.64%E -0.627%K -0.823%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-29 18:55
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -8.00%E -4.21%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 18:55
Bet Right🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -8.00%E -4.21%K -8.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-29 18:55
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.60%EV -8.97%E -4.77%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 18:40
Paddy Power🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -11.91%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.43%EV -9.12%E -2.85%K -4.15%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.63%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -11.91%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-29 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.46%EV -10.54%E -3.35%K -4.90%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 47.94%EV -9.46%E -5.06%K -10.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.59%EV -11.91%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-29 18:55
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -5.58%E -2.86%K -5.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-29 18:55
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.99%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.05%EV -7.52%E -3.94%K -8.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -13.07%E -3.48%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-29 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.15%EV -9.94%E -5.34%K -11.56%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.96%EV -9.59%E -2.46%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-29 18:40
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.59%EV -11.96%E -3.86%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -12.85%E -7.14%K -16.06%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -7.27%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 09:35
Betclic (FR)🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 28.43%EV -12.53%E -4.07%K -6.02%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.33%EV -8.49%E -4.49%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.24%EV -19.56%E -5.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%14.2%2026-08-29 18:50
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.70I 27.03%NM 27.02%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.99%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.98%0.0%2026-08-29 18:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.31%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-08-29 18:55
Matchbook◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.31%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.10%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.59%0.9%2026-08-29 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-08-29 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.54%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.57%1.0%2026-08-29 18:50
Smarkets◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.18%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.34%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48%1.4%2026-08-29 18:55