Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Zwolle v Heracles Almelo

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 12:30 UTC

Final: FC Zwolle 1–0 Heracles Almelo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Zwolle (Local)

Prediction 62.51%1.60fair odd
EV -0.601%
Edge -0.378%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.26%62.51%62.46%64.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.481.501.5971.43%67.38%66.67%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Heracles Almelo (Visit)

Prediction 17.06%5.86fair odd
EV +4.10%
Edge +0.671%
Kelly +0.803%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 6.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.67%17.08%17.11%19.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.495.506.1020.83%18.20%18.18%16.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.42%4.90fair odd
EV +4.14%
Edge +0.812%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.02%20.41%20.44%22.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.574.555.1026.67%21.89%21.98%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Zwolle (Local): 62.51%; Heracles Almelo (Visit): 17.06%; Draw: 20.42%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.90. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 61.02%EV -0.601%E -0.378%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.96%EV -17.06%E -3.51%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.02%EV +4.14%E +0.812%K +1.01%G +0.042%3.1%2026-05-03 12:26
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 64.69%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.91%EV +4.10%E +0.671%K +0.803%G +0.033%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.41%EV +2.10%E +0.420%K +0.525%G +0.011%3.1%2026-05-03 12:06
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.11%EV -5.60%E -3.71%K -10.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.13%EV +2.39%E +0.398%K +0.478%G +0.011%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.76%EV +0.058%E +0.012%K +0.015%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 11:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 64.11%EV -5.60%E -3.71%K -10.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.13%EV +2.39%E +0.398%K +0.478%G +0.011%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.76%EV +0.058%E +0.012%K +0.015%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-03 11:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.31%EV -7.48%E -5.05%K -15.58%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%EV +2.39%E +0.398%K +0.478%G +0.011%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.83%EV -1.98%E -0.413%K -0.522%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 12:06
Unibet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.11%EV -8.10%E -5.51%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.25%EV -1.02%E -0.176%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -1.98%E -0.413%K -0.522%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-03 12:10
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.55%EV -8.10%E -5.51%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.99%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.46%EV -1.98%E -0.413%K -0.522%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-03 12:25
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.43%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -1.88%E -0.326%K -0.395%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.00%E -0.633%K -0.801%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 12:05
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.43%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -1.88%E -0.326%K -0.395%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV -3.00%E -0.633%K -0.801%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-03 12:24
Casumo🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.98%EV -8.10%E -5.51%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.22%EV -1.02%E -0.176%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -3.00%E -0.633%K -0.801%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 12:05
betPARX🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.98%EV -8.10%E -5.51%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.22%EV -1.02%E -0.176%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.80%EV -3.00%E -0.633%K -0.801%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 12:06
BetRivers🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.30%EV -9.35%E -6.45%K -20.79%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.07%EV -1.02%E -0.176%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -3.00%E -0.633%K -0.801%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-03 12:06
Codere (IT)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.46%EV -5.60%E -3.71%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.47%EV -7.85%E -1.45%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -4.03%E -0.856%K -1.09%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-03 12:15
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.32%EV -9.98%E -6.93%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.97%EV -1.02%E -0.176%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -4.03%E -0.856%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 12:05
TABtouch🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.32%EV -9.98%E -6.93%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.97%EV -1.02%E -0.176%K -0.213%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.71%EV -4.03%E -0.856%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-03 12:06
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.66%EV -10.60%E -7.42%K -24.66%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.67%EV +0.683%E +0.116%K +0.139%G +0.001%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.67%EV -4.03%E -0.856%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-03 12:11
Winamax (DE)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.92%EV -6.85%E -4.60%K -13.99%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -14.68%E -2.94%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.63%EV -4.03%E -0.856%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 12:16
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.39%EV -10.60%E -7.42%K -24.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -1.88%E -0.326%K -0.395%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.59%EV -4.03%E -0.856%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 12:05
LeoVegas🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.39%EV -10.60%E -7.42%K -24.66%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -1.88%E -0.326%K -0.395%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.59%EV -4.03%E -0.856%K -1.09%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-03 12:05
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.92%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.37%EV +0.342%E +0.058%K +0.070%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.70%EV -5.05%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-03 12:25
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -6.07%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 12:15
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.27%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.65%EV -6.07%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-03 12:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.07%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 12:06
Unibet (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.06%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.07%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 12:15
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.02%EV -8.10%E -5.51%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.07%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-03 12:16
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.01%EV -11.23%E -7.91%K -26.74%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -4.44%E -0.792%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -6.07%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 12:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.01%EV -11.23%E -7.91%K -26.74%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -4.44%E -0.792%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -6.07%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 12:06
PMU (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 64.01%EV -11.23%E -7.91%K -26.74%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.23%EV -4.44%E -0.792%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -6.07%E -1.32%K -1.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 12:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.70%EV -9.35%E -6.45%K -20.79%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.32%EV -10.41%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.98%EV -7.09%E -1.56%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-03 12:13
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.16%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV +2.39%E +0.398%K +0.478%G +0.011%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-03 12:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -4.98%E -3.27%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 12:21
BetOnline.ag🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.95%EV -4.98%E -3.27%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-03 12:20
BetAnything🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.30%EV -5.60%E -3.71%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.80%EV -4.44%E -0.792%K -0.964%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-03 12:21
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.11%EV -5.60%E -3.71%K -10.99%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.05%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.84%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-03 12:10
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.26%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-03 12:05
Betr (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.04%EV -7.48%E -5.05%K -15.58%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -1.88%E -0.326%K -0.395%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 12:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.17%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 17.11%EV -7.00%E -1.28%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.72%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-03 12:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.20%EV -8.10%E -5.51%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.16%EV -1.88%E -0.326%K -0.395%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-03 12:10
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -14.68%E -2.94%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 12:25
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -14.68%E -2.94%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 12:26
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -14.68%E -2.94%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 12:26
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -14.68%E -2.94%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 12:26
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.40%EV -8.73%E -5.98%K -18.97%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.68%EV -18.09%E -3.77%K -4.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.92%EV -8.11%E -1.80%K -2.32%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-03 12:15
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.15%EV -3.10%E -2.00%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -7.85%E -1.45%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.30%EV -9.13%E -2.05%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 12:25
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.15%EV -3.10%E -2.00%K -5.64%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.55%EV -7.85%E -1.45%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.30%EV -9.13%E -2.05%K -2.65%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-03 12:26
BetUS🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.81%EV -4.98%E -3.27%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.08%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.11%EV -9.13%E -2.05%K -2.65%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 12:26
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.11%EV -9.35%E -6.45%K -20.79%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.66%EV -12.97%E -2.54%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.24%EV -9.13%E -2.05%K -2.65%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-03 12:15
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.06%EV -3.73%E -2.42%K -6.90%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.57%EV -8.70%E -1.63%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.37%EV -10.15%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-03 12:25
Bet Right🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -8.10%E -5.51%K -17.24%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -10.15%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-03 12:10
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.93%EV -9.98%E -6.93%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV -10.15%E -2.31%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-03 12:10
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -6.23%E -4.15%K -12.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -6.14%E -1.12%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -11.58%E -2.67%K -3.48%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-03 12:09
Betway🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -4.35%E -2.84%K -8.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -14.68%E -2.94%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -11.58%E -2.67%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-03 12:25
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.98%E -6.93%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -14.68%E -2.94%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -11.58%E -2.67%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-03 12:04
NetBet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.33%EV -11.85%E -8.41%K -28.91%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.23%EV -12.97%E -2.54%K -3.16%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.44%EV -12.19%E -2.84%K -3.70%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-03 12:24
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.71%EV -4.98%E -3.27%K -9.57%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -10.41%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.71%EV -13.21%E -3.11%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-03 12:25
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -9.98%E -6.93%K -22.68%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -10.41%E -1.98%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -14.24%E -3.39%K -4.45%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-03 12:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 60.48%EV -12.48%E -8.91%K -31.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 16.94%EV -14.68%E -2.94%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.58%EV -23.42%E -6.25%K -8.52%G +0.000%18.1%2026-05-02 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.95%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.09%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.95%0.2%2026-05-03 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.95%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.09%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.95%0.2%2026-05-03 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 63.95%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.09%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.95%0.2%2026-05-03 12:25
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 63.40%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78%1.1%2026-05-03 12:25
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 62.94%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.47%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.59%1.2%2026-05-03 12:25
Smarkets1.55I 64.52%NM 63.24%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.34%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.42%2.0%2026-05-03 12:25